Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
139 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
The Bermuda High will ridge into the forecast area through the
weekend providing a typical summertime pattern. Expect
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day along
with seasonal temperatures. A front will provide increased
chances of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper ridge over the Southeast will begin to move to the east
overnight. At the surface, Bermuda high pressure continues to ridge
into the Carolinas and GA with a lee side trough over the Piedmont.
The airmass remains moist with pwats from 1.75 inches west to just
over 2.0 inches east. Airmass moderately unstable with Lifted Index
around minus 6 and CAPE values around 2000 J/kg. Showers and
thunderstorms mainly affecting the eastern Midlands and Lower
Savannah River Area where pwats are highest. HREF ensemble indicated
scattered convection across the eastern half of the forecast area
and more isolated west. Forcing remains weak. Max temps in the upper
80s and low 90s. Convection should diminish after sunset so low pops
in the evening. Overnight mins in the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Little change. Typical summer weather expected, with weak high
pressure, surface and aloft, just south of the region. This,
along with precipitable water (PW) values near climatological
normals, is expected to provide a seasonally normal chance of
mainly diurnal convection, with near normal temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper ridge is expected to weaken Sun into early to mid
next week as an upper trough develops and digs into the E CONUS.
This will bring down a front with increased moisture. NBM
guidance continuing to indicate POPs increasing to likely with
the front, which appears reasonable. Near normals temps through
Sunday, then some decrease in max temps early to mid week with
the greater convective coverage and cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR forecast outside of scattered diurnal convection.

High pressure centered off the coast continues to ridge into the
area. West-southwest winds 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, becoming
light tonight. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon may result in
brief restrictions at terminals. Although guidance is indicating the
focus will continue across the CSRA to eastern Midlands, coverage
yielding low confidence any terminal will be affected. Convection
should diminish after sunset. Stratus or fog possible late tonight
but confidence too low to include restrictions. Convection will
develop again during the afternoon Friday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible each day in
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms and early morning
stratus/fog.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
453 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137-160900-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg-
Southeastern Orangeburg-
453 AM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
306 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

SCZ028-031-151930-
Richland SC-Sumter SC-
306 PM EDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of east central Richland
and northwestern Sumter Counties Until 330 PM EDT....

At 303 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Oakland, or near Shaw Air Base, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph and excessive cloud to ground
           lightning.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. All outdoor activities should
           cease. Move indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Sumter, Shaw Air Base, Oakland, Dalzell, Dinkins Mill, Wateree River
Correctional Institution, Stateburg, Rembert and Wedgewood.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3400 8064 3410 8058 3405 8038 3387 8057
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 316DEG 8KT 3400 8054

LCV