Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
507 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching upper trough will support another round of
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening before
crossing the region overnight. Warm, moist low levels will
remain in place for Wednesday supporting some isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. A backdoor cold front will
pass through the region on Wednesday night bringing cooler and
drier weather for late this week and into the weekend. The next
chance for rain will be early next week as atmospheric moisture
increases.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Instability and heating continue driving thunderstorms with
outflow boundaries generating new cells. With the current setup
and increasing potential for thunderstorm wind damage severe
thunderstorm watch 150 has been issued by SPC through 9 pm.
Notable wind gusts across the central Midlands late this
afternoon have been in excess of 60 mph. Over the next couple
of hours the main focus area will be the northern Midlands and
Pee Dee where CAE WSR-88D continues to show a large area of
winds in excess of 50 mph.

Convection will diminish late this evening into the early
overnight hours. Southwesterly winds at 5 to 10 mph all night
will support another mild night with lows in the mid to upper
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Drier air will continue to work its way in aloft with the flow
shifting more zonal with the axis of the amplified 500 mb trough
over the area and the surface cold front pushing to the
southeast. Expect a chance for showers and some storms mainly in
the southeast with forcing from the trough and front where some
instability will be present with SW surface flow still
promoting warm and moist low levels. Still expect temperatures
to be warmer with higher temps in the NE with increased
sunshine. Drier air aloft and moderately unstable airmass would
promote some stronger wind gusts reaching the surface which is
why the southeastern forecast area remains in a marginal risk
from the SPC. Backdoor cold front will shift in Wednesday night
with northerly winds bringing much drier and cooler air to the
area with lows dropping into the mid-50s to near 60.

PWATs drop to below .75" Thursday with lowering heights (into
the tenth percentile according to the NAEFS) leading to a much
more refreshing airmass with dewpoints in the 40s and low 50s.
Partly cloudy skies with highs in the mid-70s to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be moving in Friday with NW flow
across the area promoting downslope and even drier air filtering
in. Airmass will begin to moderate into the weekend as a ridge
starts to build back in. SW flow will develop but moisture will
be a bit slow to return. Ensemble probabilities show that it
will likely be after the weekend until PWATs return to over an
inch. Probabilities also showing the chance for thunderstorms
early next week as surface high moves offshore and SW low level
flow develops leading to significantly increasing dew points.
Mid-level flow does appear to be more zonal, however, so not
expecting any major severe weather threat in the long term with
a few shortwaves driving any convection.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main issue at terminals this afternoon/evening will be
convection lowering cigs and vsbys. Given the solid line to the
northwest of the area, I feel more confident in restrictions at
AGS and DNL, but they are possible everywhere. convection should
die off after midnight, leaving VFR conditions.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in scattered
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, but convection chances
decrease the remainder of the week into the weekend. There could
be some MVFR cigs behind a backdoor cold front on Thursday for a
little while, but otherwise VFR expected through the end of the
work week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
636 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

GAZ040-063-064-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>028-115-116-052245-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Chesterfield-McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-
Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-
636 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible through late this evening. The potential
for severe weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Widespread severe weather is unlikely. There may be isolated severe
storms on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GAZ065-077-SCZ029>031-035-037-038-041-135>137-052245-
Richmond-Burke-Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg-Southeastern Orangeburg-
636 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 150 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through late this
evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with low
potential for large hail and isolated tornados.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Widespread severe weather is unlikely. There may be isolated severe
storms on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
543 PM EDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 SSE AUGUSTA           33.37N 81.97W
05/04/2021  M44 MPH          RICHMOND           GA   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            NWS ASOS MEASURED 44MPH WIND GUST.

&&

NS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
556 PM EDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSW PATRICK           34.51N 80.06W
05/04/2021                   CHESTERFIELD       SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SC HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS TREE IN ROADWAY AT
            CEDAR CREEK RD AND UNDERGROUND BRANCH RD.
            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
606 PM EDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SSE CLEARWATER        33.42N 81.88W
05/04/2021                   AIKEN              SC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            BEECH ISLAND FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS TREE
            BLOCKING ROADWAY AND POWER LINE DOWN ON
            SHERATON DRIVE. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
620 PM EDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 NE CAMDEN             34.35N 80.50W
05/04/2021                   KERSHAW            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SC HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS TREE BLOCKING
            ROADWAY AT IVY RD AND US1. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

&&

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
635 PM EDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N LAKE MURRAY OF RICH 34.17N 81.27W
05/04/2021                   RICHLAND           SC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED AND UPROOTED IN
            PORTRAIT HILL NEIGHBORHOOD.

&&

JAQ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
637 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

GAZ065-077-SCZ030-042300-
Burke GA-Richmond GA-Aiken SC-
637 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of western Burke...
southeastern Richmond and southwestern Aiken Counties Until 700 PM
EDT....

At 637 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near McBean to 6
miles southwest of Gough, moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to penny sized hail.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Waynesboro, Jackson, Burke County Airport, McBean, Gough, Vidette,
Di-Lane Wildlife Management Area, Audubon's Silver Bluff Sanctuary,
Savannah River Site Badge Office, Savannah River Site H Canyon,
Bennock Mill, Shell Bluff, Shell Bluff Landing and Rosier.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect. Thunderstorms can produce
large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes suddenly,
sometimes with little or no warning. Be alert for rapidly changing
weather conditions and be ready to act quickly if severe weather is
observed or a warning is issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3294 8227 3309 8228 3335 8190 3337 8154
      3320 8176 3316 8176 3291 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 274DEG 14KT 3330 8189 3302 8230

JAQ