Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
225 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching upper trough will support another round of
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening before
crossing the region overnight. Warm, moist low levels will
remain in place for Wednesday supporting some isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. A backdoor cold front will
pass through the region on Wednesday night bringing cooler and
drier weather for late this week and into the weekend. The next
chance for rain will be early next week as atmospheric moisture
increases.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Not much has changed from previous thinking. Main driver of
afternoon/evening convection will be moderate instability with
MLCAPES reaching up to 2000 J/Kg by mid-late afternoon in areas
ahead of the convective line. Bulk shear will be topping out at
about 30 knots, just enough to support a few multicellular
clusters with the potential of severe winds and marginally
severe hail. At this time, the severe weather is not expected to
be as widespread as yesterday. Other than a few pop up showers
ahead of the line, best chances look to be 4 PM to 8 PM north of
I-20, and 6 PM to 10 PM south of I-20. Pops are likely north
and good chance south.

Convection will die down after midnight, but southwesterly winds
at 5 to 10 mph all night will support another mild night with
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Drier air will continue to work its way in aloft with the flow
shifting more zonal with the axis of the amplified 500 mb trough
over the area and the surface cold front pushing to the
southeast. Expect a chance for showers and some storms mainly in
the southeast with forcing from the trough and front where some
instability will be present with SW surface flow still
promoting warm and moist low levels. Still expect temperatures
to be warmer with higher temps in the NE with increased
sunshine. Drier air aloft and moderately unstable airmass would
promote some stronger wind gusts reaching the surface which is
why the southeastern forecast area remains in a marginal risk
from the SPC. Backdoor cold front will shift in Wednesday night
with northerly winds bringing much drier and cooler air to the
area with lows dropping into the mid-50s to near 60.

PWATs drop to below .75" Thursday with lowering heights (into
the tenth percentile according to the NAEFS) leading to a much
more refreshing airmass with dewpoints in the 40s and low 50s.
Partly cloudy skies with highs in the mid-70s to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be moving in Friday with NW flow
across the area promoting downslope and even drier air filtering
in. Airmass will begin to moderate into the weekend as a ridge
starts to build back in. SW flow will develop but moisture will
be a bit slow to return. Ensemble probabilities show that it
will likely be after the weekend until PWATs return to over an
inch. Probabilities also showing the chance for thunderstorms
early next week as surface high moves offshore and SW low level
flow develops leading to significantly increasing dew points.
Mid-level flow does appear to be more zonal, however, so not
expecting any major severe weather threat in the long term with
a few shortwaves driving any convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Main issue at terminals this afternoon/evening will be
convection lowering cigs and vsbys. Given the solid line to the
northwest of the area, I feel more confident in restrictions at
AGS and DNL, but they are possible everywhere. convection should
die off after midnight, leaving VFR conditions.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in scattered
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, but convection chances
decrease the remainder of the week into the weekend. There could
be some MVFR cigs behind a backdoor cold front on Thursday for a
little while, but otherwise VFR expected through the end of the
work week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
333 AM EDT Tue May 4 2021

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137-050745-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg-
Southeastern Orangeburg-
333 AM EDT Tue May 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms possible today. Damaging wind gusts
will be the primary threat but large hail and a isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Widespread severe weather is unlikely. There may be isolated severe
storms on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
958 AM EDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             SALUDA                  34.01N 81.78W
05/03/2021  E1.50 INCH       SALUDA             SC   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SALUDA CO-OP OBSERVER REPORTED PING PONG
            BALL SIZED HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1026 AM EDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0628 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OLAR                    33.18N 81.19W
05/03/2021                   BAMBERG            SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SCDOT REPORTED A TREE FELL, PARTIALLY
            BLOCKING SC64 NEAR OLAR.

&&

CRL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
329 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

SCZ020-026-027-042000-
Lexington SC-Newberry SC-Saluda SC-
329 PM EDT Tue May 4 2021

...Strong Thunderstorms Will Impact Portions of northwestern
Lexington...southeastern Newberry and central Saluda Counties Until
400 PM EDT....

...Boaters on Lake Marion Should Seek Safe Harbor...

At 329 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Ridge Spring, or 9 miles west of
Batesburg-Leesville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...gusty winds 40 to 50 mph, up to penny sized hail and
           excessive cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
           trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
           unlikely. All outdoor activities should cease. Move
           indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Batesburg-Leesville, Saluda, Prosperity, Ridge Spring, Saluda County
Airport, Dreher Island State Park, Summit, Little Mountain, Monetta,
Ward, Cedar Grove Fire Station, South Shore Marina, Oswald Park,
Saluda Co Sheriff's Office, Bundrick Island, Putnam's Landing,
Murray, Rocky Point Recreation Area, Hollywood Elementary School and
Emory.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Boaters on Lake Marion should move to shore and seek shelter. Strong,
erratic wind gusts and lightning are possible. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

Move indoors immediately.  Excessive cloud to ground lightning is
occurring with this storm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning.

This storm may intensify. Monitor NOAA Weather Radio, local radio and
television stations for additional information and possible warnings
from the National Weather Service.

&&

This includes Interstate 26 near mile marker 79.

LAT...LON 3391 8187 3427 8151 3402 8122 3387 8157
      3388 8157 3387 8158 3382 8169 3384 8177
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 230DEG 35KT 3391 8169

JAQ