Special Marine Warning 55, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
528 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe storms and heavy downpours are expected this
evening. Then, after a break later this evening into the
overnight, additional showers and storms are expected on
Wednesday, particularly east of the Genesee valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
...Strong to severe storms into early this evening with tropical
downpours as well...

Main concern for this evening will be developing severe weather.
There are several areas of focus... from west to east:

1) A line from Eastern Lake Erie SSE to NW PA will affect much
of WNY this eve. Timing for this is now through 6PM for the
Southern Tier along the PA border, and roughly 6-8PM for Metro
BUF and surrounding areas (Southtowns first, Northtowns last).
The line has weakened a little over the past hour, but should
restrengthen, particularly on its south side, as it moves NE
into the Southern Tier and Upper Genesee Valley.

2) Much of the Genesee Valley will see the above noted line move
through a little later, roughly 7-9PM. There's a possibility
that additional convection may form ahead of line, which reduces
confidence in timing a little.

3) The biggest concern is E/SE of Lake Ontario, where the best
shear, both speed and directional, buoyancy, and boundaries are
found. Expect a variety of discrete cells through early this
evening, followed possibly by a line later this evening.

Within the warm sector, we have shear of 30 kts west to 45kts
east and MLCAPE between 1500-2000J/kg.  Given continual high
wbzero heights 13+kft per 18z BUF sounding and very high PWATS
toward 2 inches, main severe hazard will be damaging wind gusts.
Severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for our entire area,
except St. Lawrence River, through 11 PM.

Torrential downpours expected too, but storms will be moving
more so than last couple days. Thus, main flooding potential
will be if storms train resulting in multiple episodes of heavy
rain at one spot. Considered flash flood watch east of Lake
Ontario where majority of high res guidance indicates heaviest
rain occurs closer to warm front into this evening, but since
those ares didn't see widespread heavy rain last night (few
spots saw 0.60-1.00) plan is to handle flash flooding hazard
with warnings if needed.

Majority of thunderstorm activity wanes mid evening onward, first
over WNY then by late evening east of Lake Ontario. Otherwise
continued warm and sultry.

Wednesday...subtle remnants of longwave trough will pass through the
region. This will be enough to touch off another round of showers
and thunderstorms. Greatest potential for heavy rain will be east of
the Genesee valley. Not as much severe, though.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-level shortwave trough axis will cross NY state Wednesday night,
allowing for some slight ridging across the region in its wake. This
will result in a much welcomed period of dry weather, albeit brief
as surface high pressure will slide across the region Wednesday
night into Thursday. Then residuals of the dry air from the high
will linger across the area Thursday prolonging the dry period.

Meanwhile, the aforementioned mid-level shortwave will have pulled
the longwave trough axis eastward over the Upper and Central Great
Lakes Thursday and Friday, which correlates to a surface low and
attendant cold front crossing the Great Lakes Thursday. Synoptic
forcing will slowly infringe on the area Thursday night causing
chances for showers and thunderstorms to increase from northwest to
southeast. Due to the slow moving nature of the cold front, showers
and thunderstorms ahead of the front will most likely enter Western
New York early Friday morning, where it will then cross the area
through the day Friday and Friday night.

Through this period, the region will lie under southwesterly flow,
advecting warm air into New York State. Highs Thursday will climb
into the mid to upper 80s. Friday will continue to be on the warm
side with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level trough will move overhead while the front slows down
as it moves into Pennsylvania and central NY Saturday. This will
promote the chance for showers across the region with better
coverage across interior portions of the forecast area.
Storms are also possible in vicinity of the front.

The upper level trough and front will linger with the chance of
showers and storms lasting through the weekend. Temperatures will
fall to near-normal through the weekend. High pressure likely Monday
with mostly dry conditions expected, except for a few showers
possible late Monday for the eastern portions of the area. Mostly
dry conditions for Tuesday as well, but a few scattered showers
can't be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions are anticipated through the evening, but
with a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms into the early
evening. All sites will see a chance of stronger thunderstorms
with MVFR conditions. Right now, greatest chances for more
persistent showers and thunderstorms into early evening. Wind
gusts over 40 kts and torrential downpours will be the primary
hazards during thunderstorms.

Any convection this evening will die off during the overnight. While
general VFR conditions will be in place during the first half of the
night outside of any leftover convection...cigs will lower to IFR to
MVFR levels during the wee hours of Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Generally VFR, but with periods of MVFR/IFR early
Wednesday afternoon in showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
A relatively weak sfc pressure gradient in the wake of warm front
will keep gentle to occasionally moderate breezes in place
throughout the Lower Great Lakes through tonight. While this
will be accompanied by negligible wave action...there will be a
heightened risk for strong thunderstorms. Mariners should be
alert for possible statements and special marine warnings
through early this evening.

Once the threat for thunderstorms dies off late this evening...
moderate south to southwest breezes will be in place for the
overnight.

On Wednesday...moderate southwesterlies will be found throughout the
region with more thunderstorms possible. While choppy conditions
will be possible at times on Lake Erie...small craft advisory
conditions are not expected to be met.

A narrow window of fair weather will be in place for Thursday with
moderate southerlies and manageable waves in the forecast.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...JLA/RSH/Zaff
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...HSK/SW
AVIATION...JLA/RSH/Zaff
MARINE...JLA/RSH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
746 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

NYZ001>008-011>014-021-150000-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
746 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms on Wednesday could contain another round of torrential
downpours, especially east of the Genesee valley.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-019-020-085-150000-
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
746 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms on Wednesday could contain another round of torrential
downpours, especially east of the Genesee valley.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-150000-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
746 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-150000-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
746 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
547 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RIPLEY                  42.27N 79.71W
07/13/2021                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN SOUTH RIPLEY.

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHERMAN                 42.16N 79.60W
07/13/2021                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN SHERMAN.

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PANAMA                  42.08N 79.49W
07/13/2021                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN PANAMA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
557 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S SHERMAN             42.15N 79.60W
07/13/2021                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ON I-86 EASTBOUND NEAR EXIT 14.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
631 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SCRIBA                  43.46N 76.42W
07/13/2021                   OSWEGO             NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN SCRIBA. TIME
            ESTIMATED BASED UPON RADAR.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
705 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

NYZ007-132330-
Jefferson-
705 PM EDT Tue Jul 13 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY...

At 705 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Redwood, or 15
miles north of Fort Drum, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kring Point State Park, Redwood, Alexandria Bay, Theresa, Plessis,
Oxbow and Muskellunge Lake.

This includes Interstate 81 near exit 50.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4440 7583 4439 7584 4432 7568 4429 7560
      4418 7570 4428 7598 4434 7597 4440 7586
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 213DEG 28KT 4428 7580

Mitchell

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
734 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALAMANCA               42.17N 78.72W
07/13/2021                   CATTARAUGUS        NY   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES DOWN...TREES ON
            CARS...TREES ON HOUSES AND POWERLINES DOWN
            IN SALAMANCA.

0617 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARROLLTON              42.12N 78.65W
07/13/2021                   CATTARAUGUS        NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN CARROLLTON. TIME ESTIMATED
            BASED ON RADAR.

0622 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALLEGANY                42.09N 78.49W
07/13/2021                   CATTARAUGUS        NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN ALLEGANY. TIME ESTIMATED BASED
            ON RADAR.

0628 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OLEAN                   42.09N 78.43W
07/13/2021                   CATTARAUGUS        NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN OLEAN. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON
            RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
759 PM EDT TUE JUL 13 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OSCEOLA                 43.50N 75.72W
07/13/2021                   LEWIS              NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE ON A POWERLINE IN OSCEOLA. TIME
            ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&