Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
152 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

.UPDATE...
Afternoon Update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0149 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021/

Through this Evening.

Strong to severe thunderstorms continue along the I-20 corridor
producing gusty winds, torrential rainfall, and abundant lightning.
These storms are being fueled by a very warm and moist southern
stream which has allowed temperatures to rise above previous
forecast highs. Evidence of backbuilding and training of storms
will lead to a continued threat for flash flooding in the
Birmingham metro area and along the I-59 corridor where hourly
rain rates are as high as 3 to 4 inches per hour. There are
several sites south of I-20 which have measured air temperatures
in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. This is prime
evidence of strong surface-based instability of 3500-4000 J/kg
per RAP mesoanalysis. This area has also seen little coverage of
rainfall thus far today which indicates a thermodynamic parameter
space primed for strong convective initiation.

A broad area of thunderstorms is currently tracking across the Lower
MS River supported by the right entrance region of the upper-level
jet and associated surface front over western Louisiana. As the low-
level jet strengthens to around 50-60 kts late this afternoon &
evening, these storms will likely become better congealed into an
organized convective line as they enter western AL with the
potential for strong, damaging winds increasing with time. The
expected QLCS will reach our western counties as early as 4 PM and
exit southeast of the I-85 corridor around 10 PM posing the risk
of a potentially widespread damaging wind event across Central AL,
especially in the southwest quarter of the forecast area where a
Moderate Risk of severe storms has been defined. Due to the robust
nature of the updrafts, large hail may accompany stronger cells
as well as the potential for a few tornadoes embedded within the
line. The addition of heavy rainfall accumulations upwards of 1 to
2 inches will produce a continued concern for Flash Flooding in
areas that have already received amounts of 2-3 inches, especially
near and north of the I-20 corridor.

Overnight through Tomorrow.

The heavier activity will outrun the cold front and should exit the
area shortly before midnight as the front begins to enter
northwestern AL. Highest rain chances will be south of I-85 tomorrow
morning and will decrease throughout the day as the trough ejects
towards the east coast. During the afternoon, expect diminishing
cloud cover with a mild, post-frontal airmass which will accompany
the northwesterly flow. Highs will be in the lower 70s northwest to
lower 80s southeast.

86

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0341 AM CDT Tue May 04 2021/

Wednesday night through Monday.

The frontal boundary should be exiting Central AL by Wednesday
evening, ending any significant rain chances for our area. Cooler
and drier northerly flow will build in as the upper level trough
axis swings through our region during the day on Thursday. This will
lead to high temperatures running a few degrees below normal for
both Thursday and Friday. Ridging builds in across the Gulf States
Friday into Saturday as the upper level flow transitions to quasi-
zonal regime. This will lead to continued rain-free through the
early part of the weekend. High temperatures do being to increase by
Saturday as surface high slides to our east, shifting our winds out
of the south, which will bring in the warmer air mass from the Gulf.

A surface low develops across the Central Plains on Saturday, but
quickly moves eastward under the generally zonal flow. Because the
zonal flow persist, the frontal boundary associated with this low
has a hard time pushing south. Mode guidance suggests the boundary
will slow or stall across the Ohio Valley and remain well to our
north through early next week. However, broader scale ascent due to
isentropic lift in the warm/moist airmass to the south of the
boundary could lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms for
portions of Central AL Sunday and Monday. There's still a good
amount of uncertainty on where this precip lines up, so for now,
I'll keep 30-40% chance of rain across the northern half of Central
AL on Sunday, becoming 40-50% by Monday.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will produce flight criteria
impacts throughout this afternoon. A cluster of thunderstorms near
and north of I-20 will move across our northern terminals for most
of the afternoon. A second round of widespread thunderstorms
currently moving into Mississippi will track towards west Central
AL by mid afternoon. These storms will reach TCL around 20Z then
continue east and southeast before reaching MGM and TOI around
00-03Z. Rain will generally end north to south overnight as a cold
front passes through the area, but low ceilings are expected
behind the front. Surface winds will become northwesterly by early
tomorrow morning around 5-10 kts with clouds decreasing and
ceilings slowly rising during the late morning.

Note: AMD NOT SKED until further notice at KASN due to ongoing
equipment issues.

86

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected today as a cold
front moves through the area. Winds will increase from the south
and become southwesterly today. Strong, gusty winds can be
anticipated along and ahead of the line of thunderstorms that move
through today. Drier air arrives for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     60  75  49  74  47 /  80  10   0   0   0
Anniston    63  77  51  75  49 /  80  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  63  76  52  76  51 /  80  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  61  77  53  77  51 /  60   0   0   0   0
Calera      63  76  54  75  51 /  80  10   0   0   0
Auburn      65  78  56  76  52 /  90  50   0   0   0
Montgomery  68  81  57  79  54 /  90  50   0   0   0
Troy        67  81  58  79  54 /  90  60   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
346 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

ALZ011>015-017>050-051200-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
346 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across all of
Central Alabama. Threats include damaging winds up to 70 mph, large
hail and a few brief tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be
needed today.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
426 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE RANKIN FITE AIRPO 34.12N 87.99W
05/04/2021                   MARION             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON US HIGHWAY 43.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
428 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW WESTON             34.13N 88.07W
05/04/2021                   MARION             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON COUNTY ROAD 11.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
433 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N SAMANTHA            33.48N 87.61W
05/04/2021                   TUSCALOOSA         AL   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN ON HAGLER ROAD.

&&

CBD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
441 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CUBA                    32.44N 88.37W
05/04/2021                   SUMTER             AL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN. REPORTED BY FIRE
            OFFICIAL.

&&

CBD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
443 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W YORK                32.49N 88.35W
05/04/2021                   SUMTER             AL   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ALONG I-20 BETWEEN YORK AND CUBA.

&&

CBD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
445 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

ALZ014-015-042215-
Walker AL-Winston AL-
445 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WALKER AND WINSTON COUNTIES UNTIL
515 PM CDT...

At 445 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles northwest of Brushy Lake to near
Corinth Rec Area to 6 miles south of Kansas. Movement was east at 40
mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Haleyville, Sumiton, Cordova, Dora, Carbon Hill, Lynn, Arley,
Double Springs, Parrish, Oakman, Addison, Sipsey, West Jefferson,
Kansas, Nauvoo, Eldridge, Curry, Gorgas Steam Plant and Houston
Recreational Area.

LAT...LON 3430 8711 3399 8711 3399 8714 3389 8709
      3389 8701 3386 8696 3380 8695 3377 8702
      3366 8706 3360 8719 3355 8719 3352 8725
      3352 8732 3359 8732 3360 8742 3369 8743
      3369 8753 3387 8753 3387 8764 3431 8763
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 267DEG 36KT 3437 8741 3410 8736 3381 8759

17/KLAWS