Tornado Warning 77, NWS Birmingham, AL

934 
WWUS54 KBMX 042331
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
631 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

ALC051-101-050000-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0077.000000T0000Z-210505T0000Z/
Elmore AL-Montgomery AL-
631 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
ELMORE AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...
    
At 631 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Blue Ridge, or near Wetumpka, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Northern Montgomery, Wetumpka, Tallassee, Emerald Mountain, Blue
Ridge, Bob Woodruff Lake, Ware, Tallapoosa Water Plant, Yates Dam and
Yates Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3250 8629 3260 8589 3250 8589 3249 8588
      3248 8586 3247 8587 3245 8588 3245 8593
      3244 8596 3245 8598 3244 8598 3245 8599
      3243 8604 3241 8626
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 259DEG 47KT 3249 8620 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

17/KLAWS

890 
WWUS54 KBMX 042337
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
637 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

ALC051-101-042346-
/O.CAN.KBMX.TO.W.0077.000000T0000Z-210505T0000Z/
Elmore AL-Montgomery AL-
637 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ELMORE AND NORTH CENTRAL
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened. 
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds and 
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central
and east central Alabama.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern Alabama.

LAT...LON 3250 8629 3260 8589 3250 8589 3249 8588
      3248 8586 3247 8587 3245 8588 3245 8593
      3244 8596 3245 8598 3244 8598 3245 8599
      3243 8604 3241 8626
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 259DEG 47KT 3250 8612 

$$

17/KLAWS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
152 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021

.UPDATE...
Afternoon Update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0149 PM CDT Tue May 04 2021/

Through this Evening.

Strong to severe thunderstorms continue along the I-20 corridor
producing gusty winds, torrential rainfall, and abundant lightning.
These storms are being fueled by a very warm and moist southern
stream which has allowed temperatures to rise above previous
forecast highs. Evidence of backbuilding and training of storms
will lead to a continued threat for flash flooding in the
Birmingham metro area and along the I-59 corridor where hourly
rain rates are as high as 3 to 4 inches per hour. There are
several sites south of I-20 which have measured air temperatures
in the lower 90s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. This is prime
evidence of strong surface-based instability of 3500-4000 J/kg
per RAP mesoanalysis. This area has also seen little coverage of
rainfall thus far today which indicates a thermodynamic parameter
space primed for strong convective initiation.

A broad area of thunderstorms is currently tracking across the Lower
MS River supported by the right entrance region of the upper-level
jet and associated surface front over western Louisiana. As the low-
level jet strengthens to around 50-60 kts late this afternoon &
evening, these storms will likely become better congealed into an
organized convective line as they enter western AL with the
potential for strong, damaging winds increasing with time. The
expected QLCS will reach our western counties as early as 4 PM and
exit southeast of the I-85 corridor around 10 PM posing the risk
of a potentially widespread damaging wind event across Central AL,
especially in the southwest quarter of the forecast area where a
Moderate Risk of severe storms has been defined. Due to the robust
nature of the updrafts, large hail may accompany stronger cells
as well as the potential for a few tornadoes embedded within the
line. The addition of heavy rainfall accumulations upwards of 1 to
2 inches will produce a continued concern for Flash Flooding in
areas that have already received amounts of 2-3 inches, especially
near and north of the I-20 corridor.

Overnight through Tomorrow.

The heavier activity will outrun the cold front and should exit the
area shortly before midnight as the front begins to enter
northwestern AL. Highest rain chances will be south of I-85 tomorrow
morning and will decrease throughout the day as the trough ejects
towards the east coast. During the afternoon, expect diminishing
cloud cover with a mild, post-frontal airmass which will accompany
the northwesterly flow. Highs will be in the lower 70s northwest to
lower 80s southeast.

86

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0341 AM CDT Tue May 04 2021/

Wednesday night through Monday.

The frontal boundary should be exiting Central AL by Wednesday
evening, ending any significant rain chances for our area. Cooler
and drier northerly flow will build in as the upper level trough
axis swings through our region during the day on Thursday. This will
lead to high temperatures running a few degrees below normal for
both Thursday and Friday. Ridging builds in across the Gulf States
Friday into Saturday as the upper level flow transitions to quasi-
zonal regime. This will lead to continued rain-free through the
early part of the weekend. High temperatures do being to increase by
Saturday as surface high slides to our east, shifting our winds out
of the south, which will bring in the warmer air mass from the Gulf.

A surface low develops across the Central Plains on Saturday, but
quickly moves eastward under the generally zonal flow. Because the
zonal flow persist, the frontal boundary associated with this low
has a hard time pushing south. Mode guidance suggests the boundary
will slow or stall across the Ohio Valley and remain well to our
north through early next week. However, broader scale ascent due to
isentropic lift in the warm/moist airmass to the south of the
boundary could lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms for
portions of Central AL Sunday and Monday. There's still a good
amount of uncertainty on where this precip lines up, so for now,
I'll keep 30-40% chance of rain across the northern half of Central
AL on Sunday, becoming 40-50% by Monday.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will produce flight criteria
impacts throughout this afternoon. A cluster of thunderstorms near
and north of I-20 will move across our northern terminals for most
of the afternoon. A second round of widespread thunderstorms
currently moving into Mississippi will track towards west Central
AL by mid afternoon. These storms will reach TCL around 20Z then
continue east and southeast before reaching MGM and TOI around
00-03Z. Rain will generally end north to south overnight as a cold
front passes through the area, but low ceilings are expected
behind the front. Surface winds will become northwesterly by early
tomorrow morning around 5-10 kts with clouds decreasing and
ceilings slowly rising during the late morning.

Note: AMD NOT SKED until further notice at KASN due to ongoing
equipment issues.

86

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected today as a cold
front moves through the area. Winds will increase from the south
and become southwesterly today. Strong, gusty winds can be
anticipated along and ahead of the line of thunderstorms that move
through today. Drier air arrives for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     60  75  49  74  47 /  80  10   0   0   0
Anniston    63  77  51  75  49 /  80  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  63  76  52  76  51 /  80  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  61  77  53  77  51 /  60   0   0   0   0
Calera      63  76  54  75  51 /  80  10   0   0   0
Auburn      65  78  56  76  52 /  90  50   0   0   0
Montgomery  68  81  57  79  54 /  90  50   0   0   0
Troy        67  81  58  79  54 /  90  60   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
346 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

ALZ011>015-017>050-051200-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
346 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across all of
Central Alabama. Threats include damaging winds up to 70 mph, large
hail and a few brief tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be
needed today.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
559 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W ALABASTER           33.24N 86.85W
05/04/2021                   SHELBY             AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 17 NORTHBOUND BETWEEN CEDAR GROVE
            PARKWAY AND HIGH GROVE PARKWAY IMPASSABLE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
601 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N HOOVER              33.41N 86.81W
05/04/2021                   JEFFERSON          AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PATTON CREEK OVERTOPPING THE BRIDGE AT
            SOUTHLAND DRIVE.

&&

CBD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
606 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE VESTAVIA HILLS     33.41N 86.76W
05/04/2021                   JEFFERSON          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING IN THE 2400 BLOCK OF ACTON
            ROAD. LARGE ROCKS BEING WASHED INTO THE
            ROADWAY.

&&

CBD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
607 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ESE VESTAVIA HILLS    33.42N 86.76W
05/04/2021                   JEFFERSON          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HOMES FLOODED ON LESLIE ANN ROAD.

&&

CBD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
610 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E GREENSBORO          32.70N 87.57W
05/04/2021                   HALE               AL   PUBLIC

            WIDESPREAD TREES DOWNED AND POWER LINES
            DOWNED ALONG HIGHWAY 14 IN HALE COUNTY.

&&

CBD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
612 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KNOXVILLE               33.00N 87.79W
05/04/2021                   GREENE             AL   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN. REPORTED ON SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

CBD