Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
245 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0140 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021/
Through Sunday.

It's been a very tricky day in terms of updates to the short-term
forecast this afternoon, as sunshine has broken out across much of
the area, with temps quickly rising into the upper 70s to near 80
degrees across our west and southwest counties. Meanwhile, showers
and storms continue across the far southeasT keeping temps
relatively cooler at Troy and Eufaula. Best severe weather
chances will continue to remain along and south of the current
warm front, which is analyzed from Pickens County eastward to Lee
County. PoPs remain highest south of the warm front, with
scattered activity mentioned throughout the rest of the day
elsewhere across Central Alabama. It still remains to be seen how
much development that we'll see across the northern half of the
state later on this afternoon but high-res guidance continues to
indicate the possibility of at least scattered convection. We'll
continue to monitor trends over the next several hours.

Shower and storm activity will continue to push off to the east
overnight tonight, with increasing clouds expected as the low
pressure system moves off to our east. Very pleasant weather is
still expected during the day on Sunday with plenty of sunshine
and a relatively dry air mass.

56/GDG

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0225 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021/

Sunday night through Wednesday.

No significant changes to previous forecast. An upper trof digging
southward over the western United States will produce a downstream
ridge over the Central Gulf Coast region. Temperatures will warm
quickly early next week with highs in the lower to middle 80s. A
dry forecast through Wednesday, possibly longer. Big differences
between the GFS and ECMWF models on movement of cut-off upper low
over the Southwest states. The GFS is phasing northern stream trof
with cut-off low and showing a highly amplified trof axis
ejecting eastward across Alabama on Thursday. The ECMWF and
Canadian models are holding back cut-off low and showing a much
weaker system over the weekend. No changes made in the forecast
beyond Wednesday due to timing differences.

58/rose

Previous long-term discussion:
/Updated at 0305 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021/

Sunday night through Wednesday.

A dominant deep-layer ridge will build across the eastern CONUS at
the start of the work week. Height rises and southerly low-level
flow will result in above average temperatures Monday through
Wednesday. Anticyclonic flow and very dry air will suppress rain
chances through this period with mostly clear to partly cloudy
skies. Temperatures will range from the mid 80s during the day to
upper 50s/lower 60s at night.

Wednesday night through Friday.

Highly amplified troughing will encompass much of the Central CONUS
for the second half of the week. At the surface, an elongated area
of low pressure will be situated from the Midwest into the Southern
Plains producing a large swath of eastward moving showers and
thunderstorms along a cold front while the ridge builds further into
the Atlantic. This highly dynamic system will continue to deepen as
it moves towards the Southeast and could pose a threat for severe
weather across Central AL either Thursday or Friday, but the timing
is quite uncertain at the moment.

86

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

VFR conditions are present for all sites except for TOI, where
widespread TSRA are in the vicinity of the terminal. TSRA can be
expected to continue for TOI through the afternoon and evening
hours, with a possibility of being included at MGM at some point
later on this afternoon and into the evening as well. Northern
terminals have less of a chance for TSRA, with lower confidence
and more scattered activity expected. At least MVFR cigs are then
expected to move in overnight tonight with lower cigs expected
across the north. Clouds should quickly mix out through the
morning on Sunday with VFR conditions expected into the planning
period. Only other aviation impact will be gusty southwesterly
surface winds up to 20 knots at times this afternoon through this
evening.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A few showers and thunderstorms north of I-85 this evening, better
chances south of I-85. A cool front will usher in drier and
slightly cooler air into central Alabama after midnight. Afternoon
RH's will drop into the 40 to 45 percent on Sunday with north
winds 5-7 mph. No wetting rainfall Sunday through Wednesday.
Afternoon temperatures will climb into the lower and middle 80s
Monday through Wednesday, producing afternoon RH's in the 35 to 40
percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     49  73  46  81  54 /  40   0   0   0   0
Anniston    50  73  49  82  57 /  40   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  52  74  50  82  58 /  40   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  52  75  50  83  57 /  20   0   0   0   0
Calera      52  73  51  80  58 /  40   0   0   0   0
Auburn      53  74  52  80  58 /  40   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  55  76  53  83  59 /  40   0   0   0   0
Troy        55  76  52  83  58 /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
901 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

ALZ011>015-017>050-251715-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
901 AM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Noon through 9 PM,
generally along and south of Interstate 20. Threats include damaging
winds up to 60 mph, quarter size hail, and a brief tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
through this evening.

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