Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1239 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

.UPDATE...
For 18Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 450 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021/
Today through Friday.

So far this AM we have had widespread showers with embedded
thunderstorms as it spread NE across C AL. The activity has been
elevated and while we are watching for any rogue storms, severe
activity during the early morning hours should be marginal at
best until the warm front makes its way northward later today. We
have increased the severe threat in the NW half of C AL for this
afternoon and evening. This probably doesn't come as much of a
surprise as this system is ramping up to be significant there with
strong tornadoes a possibility. The SE half of C AL is a
different story. While we have a marginal threat this AM for
portions of C AL, for the rest of the afternoon and evening,
parameters are much lower in the SE counties with convection not
as likely there until later this evening. After the current
convection currently on the radar pushes N, we should have a
somewhat lull in activity in the SE.

In contrast, by around 11am, our warm front should be to the N of
the area. Models suggest some cellular activity will likely pop
up in the NW first. MUCAPE will not be lacking, but will be
highest in the west for this afternoon. 0-6km bulk shear will be
in ample supply across C AL. However, 0-1km shear will be
decidedly higher in the NW. Although amounts vary, guidance is in
agreement decreasing this low level shear significantly after 6z
as the bulk of the instability skirts to the NE. This will be not
only with the front moving across, but our negatively tilted upper
shortwave that is expected to be over the Arklatex ~18z today
expected to race off toward IL/IN by midnight tonight. With the
bulk of the activity in the SE counties expected for later this
evening, this greatly decreases the chance for severe weather for
them S of the I85 corridor. This is the reason for the sharp risk
gradient in our severe graphics. Timing is pretty similar to what
we had yesterday except possibly starting in the NW at 11am
instead of noon. The front is expected to make progress after
midnight with the risk for TS in the SE counties much lower for
the day on Friday with lower dew points moving in behind the
front.

08

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 450 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021/
Friday night through Wednesday.

Rain chances should be minimal for Friday evening but increase
after midnight into the pre-dawn hours on Saturday with some
thunderstorms possible in the NW with shortwave activity. Rain
chances increase once again for Saturday into Sunday with the
approach of another frontal system number 2. However, the upper
dynamics still need to be worked out. The upper setup does not
show a negatively tilted system like front 1. However, we will
have warm and moist air waiting for this springtime front. While
some strong storms cannot be ruled out, will hold off adding
severe just yet with the weekend system. Extended guidance
diverges on timing and strength of the upper low/shortwave behind
the front for Mon/Tue time frame, so only going with low pops for
now. A third front approaches by end of the extended by Wednesday
with elevated shower and thunderstorm chances returning.

08

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Less than ideal flying conditions continue across Central
Alabama. Severe convective weather continues to impact the area
along with the challenge of wind shear, gusty surface winds, and
turbulence. Mainly southerly sfc winds at 10-15 kts with higher
gusts are expected through the afternoon. TAFs are mainly MVFR
for much of the afternoon along with the expectation of TSRA
across northern terminals. MGM/TOI are staying on the better side
of conditions, however. A convective line of strong to severe
thunderstorms will eventually sweep across the area later this
afternoon and evening. This will impact most terminals and also
cause a wind shift after FROPA. Any IFR conditions should be
associated with convection through the TAF period. Will monitor
closely for any needed amendments.

40/Sizemore

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A moist air mass with high relative humidity values will develop
today and continue through the weekend with multiple episodes of
showers and thunderstorms. A warm front will lift northward
today and produce numerous showers and a few thunderstorms.
Southerly winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts
today as a strong storm system approaches from the west. There is
risk of severe thunderstorms with tornadoes this afternoon and
evening. Rain chances are lower on Friday, but more showers and
thunderstorms are expected for over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     52  75  54  79  61 /  90  10  40  70  80
Anniston    57  78  59  82  63 /  90  10  40  60  60
Birmingham  55  76  60  81  64 /  90  10  50  70  80
Tuscaloosa  54  78  62  82  64 /  80  10  40  60  80
Calera      57  76  62  82  64 /  90  10  40  60  70
Auburn      63  76  64  82  64 /  80  30  20  30  20
Montgomery  64  78  65  85  67 /  70  20  20  30  30
Troy        65  80  66  85  67 /  70  40  20  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Blount...Bullock...
Calhoun...Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...Clay...Cleburne...
Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Fayette...Greene...Hale...
Jefferson...Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Marion...
Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...Randolph...Russell...
Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tallapoosa...
Tuscaloosa...Walker...Winston.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
504 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

ALZ011>015-017>050-261315-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
504 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

A couple severe storm may occur this morning with a threat of a
couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail up to quarter size. This
morning threat is mainly for areas near and west of Interstate 65
through around 11 am.

A significant severe weather event is expected across much of
Central Alabama from around 11 am through midnight. The greatest
threat will be along and northwest of Interstate 59, where strong
tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail will be possible. The
overall threat gradually decreases to the southeast of there.

A Wind Advisory is in effect from 11 AM through 10 PM for most of
Central Alabama excluding areas generally south of Interstate 85.
Sustained winds will be out of the south around 10 to 20 mph with
occasional gusts up to 40 mph outside of any thunderstorm activity,
especially in higher terrain areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Minor flooding may occur along portions of the Tombigbee and Black
Warrior River Basins this weekend and into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is expected
on today into this evening.

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1107 AM CDT THU MAR 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WSW CHALKVILLE        33.66N 86.66W
03/25/2021  E1.50 INCH       JEFFERSON          AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN REPORT FROM 1 S
            PINSON. FLOODING IN THE CENTER POINT/PINSON
            AREA. SWEENEY HOLLOW ROAD BETWEEN 25TH AVE.
            NW AND OAK SHADOW CIRCLE CLOSED BOTH WAYS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1114 AM CDT THU MAR 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W INVERNESS           33.42N 86.74W
03/25/2021                   JEFFERSON          AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CALDWELL MILL AT PAHOKEE TRACE IS BLOCKED BY
            DOWNED TREES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1201 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 AM     HAIL             1 SSE GARDENDALE        33.64N 86.81W
03/25/2021  E1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          AL   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEO OF HAIL AT LEAST QUARTER
            SIZE NEAR GARDENDALE.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1215 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1158 AM     HAIL             1 WNW CHALKVILLE        33.68N 86.67W
03/25/2021  E1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          AL   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA PHOTOS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL
            NEAR PINSON.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1230 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 PM     TORNADO          4 WNW PHIPPS            32.95N 87.56W
03/25/2021                   HALE               AL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            CONFIRMED TORNADO PER TDS OFF OF KBMX RADAR.

&&

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1245 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

ALZ020-021-251845-
Cleburne AL-Cherokee AL-
1245 PM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CLEBURNE AND
CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

At 1244 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Neely Henry Lake, or near Rainbow City, moving east at 45 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Piedmont, Centre, Cedar Bluff, Little River Canyon National Preserve,
Forney, Centre Municipal Airport, Leesburg, Sand Rock, Gaylesville,
Tennala, Cherokee Rock Village, Pleasant Gap, Cornwall Furnace Park,
Blanche, Eastern Weiss Lake, Slackland, Western Weiss Lake, Mars
Hills, Moshat and Ball Flat.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3383 8537 3381 8556 3380 8560 3381 8559
      3384 8559 3385 8564 3388 8564 3389 8553
      3395 8553 3397 8574 3410 8580 3412 8579
      3411 8584 3424 8584 3424 8581 3426 8577
      3436 8566 3437 8563 3445 8558 3450 8551
TIME...MOT...LOC 1744Z 248DEG 38KT 3387 8600

25/Owen