Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
256 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

Severe weather potential through tonight highlights the short term
forecast period.

Ongoing strong to severe convection continues across portions of
the central and south central as per previous discussions. These
storms are firing along a warm front that is draped across the
central which should allow convection to continue drifting north
through the afternoon. The strongest storms will generally be
along and to the warm side of the warm front. Large hail and
damaging winds are the primary threats for this earlier activity.
Flash flooding will also remain a threat with any of these
training thunderstorms, especially across the south central.

Attention then turns to the northwest late this afternoon and into
tonight as height falls approach after 21z along with a stronger
shortwave ejecting from the western longwave trough (likely
closer to 00z). At the surface, a developing low will deepen near
the border of eastern Wyoming and Montana before moving northeast
into western North Dakota late this afternoon. This low, along
with the warm front and surface trough extending north northeast
of the low should be the focus of this later thunderstorm
potential. Confidence is high that a complex of strong to severe
storms will approach the northwest from eastern Montana this
evening in an environment characterized by MLCAPE in the 1500 to
3000 J/kg and 0-6 km shear ranging from 35 to 50 knots (strongest
shear will be near the Canadian border). Deep layer shear vectors
in this area look to have a significant parallel component to the
surface trough, which could suggest upscale growth and a linear
storm mode with potentially embedded supercell
structures/mesocyclones and bowing/line segments. Damaging wind
gusts to 70 mph and large hail up to golf balls will be the
primary hazards but a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. A
conditional and better tornado threat may occur further east
along the warm front if storms can form ahead of the surface
trough. Here, low level and deep layer shear will be strong and
the deep shear vectors should have a healthy orthogonal component
to the warm front. If these storms can form and remain discrete a
better tornado threat would evolve but confidence is low in this
scenario given the lack of upper forcing and forecast CIN.

There is lower confidence that storms may develop further south
across the west central late this afternoon and evening ahead of
the aforementioned line that develops in eastern Montana. Forcing
here will be weaker, but if storms can develop, the deep shear
vector will have a more orthogonal component to the surface trough
which would mean more discrete cells. Shear will be weaker here,
but if the storms can form, instability will be strong so
transient supercell structures will be possible with mainly a hail
and wind threat. Again, confidence is low that storms will form
here, but the environment will be supportive of severe storms.

Storms will move out of the north central and into Canada by early
Wednesday morning and the rest of the day should be dry. Wednesday
will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny with cooler temperatures
northwest (in the mid to upper 70s) and continued very warm
temperatures across portions of the south central and southeast
(low to mid 90s).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

Not much has changed regarding our thoughts for severe weather
potential towards the end of the week.

On Thursday, a negatively tilted upper level trough swings
northeast into the northern Plains, triggering another round of
strong to severe convection. This feature will drive a strong
frontal boundary eastward from eastern Montana into western ND by
Thursday evening, and across the state overnight. The associated
strong forcing, robust instability, and strong bulk and low level
shear will bring all severe weather possibilities to the region.
Bulk shear orthogonal to the north to south oriented frontal
boundary would mean discrete cells initially, then likely growing
upscale and morphing into a wind threat Thursday night. The timing
of the frontal passage may very well keep discrete convection to
our west, but a wind threat will still exist across all of western
and central North Dakota Thursday night.

The upper trough closes off over the northern Plains on Friday,
bringing continued precipitation chances though much cooler
weather.

We finally dry out for the weekend as an upper level ridge
rebuilds across the central CONUS. Seasonal temperatures early
this weekend, then gets hot again late this weekend into early
next week as the ridge amplifies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms continue early this
afternoon across much of central and south central North Dakota.
Anywhere under the heaviest cores of these storms, expect MVFR to
IFR visibility categories with heavy rain and hail. Additional
thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon and
evening across the west and north, some of which could also become
severe. Expect breezy winds out of the south through the
afternoon, but they could become erratic and gusty under any
storms or out ahead of any storms.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...NH/ZH
AVIATION...ZH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
302 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

NDZ001>004-009>012-017>022-031>036-040>046-092015-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-
McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Golden Valley-
Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Slope-Hettinger-Grant-
Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
302 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021 /202 PM MDT Tue Jun 8 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance of severe thunderstorms today and tonight. Large
hail up to the size of tennis balls and damaging winds to 70 mph
will be possible. A tornado or two will also be possible west
central and northwest.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a chance for thunderstorms with severe weather on
Thursday and Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter are encouraged to contact the National Weather Service
with any severe weather reports.

NDZ005-013-023-025-037-047-048-050-051-092015-
Rolette-Pierce-Wells-Foster-Stutsman-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-
Dickey-
302 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, south central North Dakota, and southeast North
Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a chance for thunderstorms tonight, A few storms could
be strong to severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a chance for thunderstorms with severe weather on
Thursday and Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter are encouraged to contact the National Weather Service
with any severe weather reports.

ZH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
317 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             6 NW PRAIRIE KNIGHTS RE 46.34N 100.71W
06/08/2021  E1.75 INCH       SIOUX              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL WAS MOSTLY PEA SIZE, BUT THERE WERE
            SOME LARGER STONES MIXED IN UP TO GOLF BALL
            SIZE.

&&

CK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
342 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND GST     ELGIN                   46.40N 101.85W
06/08/2021  E60 MPH          GRANT              ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
346 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             1 E ELGIN               46.40N 101.82W
06/08/2021  E1.00 INCH       GRANT              ND   STORM CHASER

&&

CK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
349 PM CDT TUE JUN 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 AM     HAIL             3 SE JAMESTOWN          46.88N 98.67W
06/08/2021  E1.00 INCH       STUTSMAN           ND   PUBLIC

0730 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MEDINA                  46.89N 99.30W
06/08/2021                   STUTSMAN           ND   PUBLIC

            DAMAGE TO SHED. REPORT RECEIVED VIA SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

0750 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 S MEDINA              46.88N 99.30W
06/08/2021  E70 MPH          STUTSMAN           ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ESTIMATED 70 MPH WINDS WITH PEA SIZE HAIL.

0805 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MONTPELIER              46.70N 98.59W
06/08/2021  M5.03 INCH       STUTSMAN           ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL FROM LAST NIGHT THROUGH THIS
            MORNING.

0823 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 SE MEDINA             46.88N 99.28W
06/08/2021  M70 MPH          STUTSMAN           ND   MESONET

            DOT SENSOR REPORTED A 70 MPH WIND GUST.

0940 AM     HAIL             2 E STEELE              46.85N 99.87W
06/08/2021  E0.88 INCH       KIDDER             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A LOT OF HAIL, SOME UP TO THE SIZE OF A
            NICKEL.

0940 AM     HAIL             5 SSW STEELE            46.79N 99.94W
06/08/2021  E0.75 INCH       KIDDER             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

0945 AM     HAIL             TAPPEN                  46.87N 99.64W
06/08/2021  E0.88 INCH       KIDDER             ND   PUBLIC

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL. REPORT RELAYED VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

1015 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E STEELE              46.86N 99.84W
06/08/2021                   KIDDER             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN, REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

1020 AM     TSTM WND DMG     STEELE                  46.85N 99.92W
06/08/2021                   KIDDER             ND   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN STEELE.

1145 AM     HAIL             2 NE HAZELTON           46.51N 100.25W
06/08/2021  E1.50 INCH       EMMONS             ND   PUBLIC

            HAIL WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW WIND GUSTS TO
            60 MPH. MEASURED 4 INCHES OF RAIN AS OF 1145
            AM AND IT WAS STILL RAINING.

1200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      STEELE                  46.85N 99.92W
06/08/2021                   KIDDER             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS WERE REPORTED TO BE UNDER
            WATER IN STEELE. MEASURED 4.30 INCHES OF
            RAIN AS OF NOON AT THE COUNTY COURTHOUSE.

1247 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 E MOFFIT              46.68N 100.24W
06/08/2021  M63 MPH          BURLEIGH           ND   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AT LONG LAKE NWR. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0105 PM     FLASH FLOOD      HAZELTON                46.48N 100.28W
06/08/2021                   EMMONS             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODED STREETS AND YARDS IN HAZELTON.
            MEASURED 5 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR, AND IT WAS
            STILL RAINING.

0130 PM     HAIL             6 NW PRAIRIE KNIGHTS RE 46.34N 100.71W
06/08/2021  E1.75 INCH       SIOUX              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL WAS MOSTLY PEA SIZE, BUT THERE WERE
            SOME LARGER STONES MIXED IN UP TO GOLF BALL
            SIZE.

0335 PM     TSTM WND GST     ELGIN                   46.40N 101.85W
06/08/2021  E60 MPH          GRANT              ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0340 PM     HAIL             1 E ELGIN               46.40N 101.82W
06/08/2021  E1.00 INCH       GRANT              ND   STORM CHASER

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
426 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

NDZ034-035-082200-
Morton-Burleigh-
426 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

...WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH IMPACTING PARTS OF EASTERN MORTON AND
WESTERN BURLEIGH COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

Strong east-southeast winds gusting to 55 mph in the Bismarck and
Mandan areas will continue through 500 pm CDT, before slowly
decreasing. The strong winds are being caused on the edge of the
thunderstorms located south of the area.

Locations impacted include...
Bismarck, Mandan, Lincoln, Menoken, Lake Harmon, Mcdowell Dam
Recreation Area, Double Ditch Indian Village, Crown Butte Lake, Fort
Abraham Lincoln State Park and University Of Mary.

LAT...LON 4664 10111 4691 10122 4701 10064 4664 10043
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 139DEG 16KT 4679 10083

CJS