Special Weather Statement, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
719 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 718 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

Change mainly made for the Severe Thunderstorm Watch until
midnight central time tonight. Warm front draped across the the
south southeast will be the focus for severe storms this evening.
Storms may be firing a little bit earlier than originally plan as
strong surface heating reached convective temps earlier. There is
abundant amount of instability in these areas. The concerns come
with shear. The 0 to 6 km shear starts around 30 kt and increased
to around 50 kt the further north you go. There is some limited 0
to 1 km shear of 10 to 15 kts in the southeast. And helicity
values are increased with some veering with height. Overall these
conditions will support storm rotation creating a hail and wind
threat through the evening. Cannot rule out a tornado, although
high LCLs will make it difficult. Some of the hail parameters
though are moderate to high. High confidence in hail sizes up to 2
inch, although some locally higher are possible. Those in the
severe thunderstorm watch should be weather aware through the
evening.

Convection is in place a bit earlier than expected. How this
effects convection overnight remains to be see. Chances for at
least elevated thunderstorms along the warm front will remain for
the time being through the night. With abundant cape and shear,
hail and wind could still be a threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

The two highlights of the short term period will be the chance for
severe thunderstorms this evening into tonight across the south
central through the southeast, followed by another chance for severe
thunderstorms across the west and north central tomorrow afternoon
and into tomorrow night.

Current surface analysis places a low along or near the western
North Dakota/South Dakota border with a warm front stretching off to
the east. Gusty southeasterly flow can be found behind and just
ahead of the warm front, ushering in moist air with dewpoints now in
the 50s across south central ND and in the 60s from central SD
southward. 500 mb analysis depicts southwesterly flow with slowly,
but steadily, increasing heights as the upper ridge tries to become
more amplified. Storms are expected to overcome the stabilizing
effect of rising heights aloft and form near the warm front
boundary this evening (most likely after 00Z). Initial storms will
be capable of all severe hazards, including hail up to 2 inches
in diameter, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and an isolated
tornado as vorticity looks to be maximized along the warm front.
Storms are expected to grow quickly upscale into clusters,
transitioning to mainly a wind threat as storms move off to the
northeast.

A wave in the upper flow could allow some showers and storms to form
across the west overnight and move into the north central. No severe
weather is expected with this activity; however, a few stronger
storms capable of small hail will be possible.

Tomorrow morning, some remnant showers and storms may be lingering
across the central and east from the overnight activity. Otherwise,
moisture will continue to increase ahead of a quickly approaching
shortwave that moves in from the Four Corners region with a
deepening trough across the western CONUS. This shortwave will be
responsible for the next round of storms that are expected to
develop across eastern Montana into western ND Tuesday afternoon.
The severe weather threat appears greater with this activity as
stronger shear (40-50 kts sfc-500 mb) and greater instability
(steep lapse rates resulting in 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) looks to be
in place. Therefore, hail up to 2.5 inches in diameter, damaging
wind gusts to 70 mph, and a couple tornadoes will all be
possible, especially with any discrete storms that form early on
into the convective cycle. CAMs depict this activity eventually
growing upscale and moving off to the northeast. How far north the
line of storms make it before moving into North Dakota is still
in question, and a nocturnal line of storms moving into
northwestern ND and eventually into north central ND is not off
the table. If this were to happen, the primary threats would be
severe hail and wind.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

Severe thunderstorm potential on Thursday highlights the long term
forecast period.

Wednesday morning should see the exiting thunderstorm complex with
post-frontal convection possible as cooler air aloft fills in with
the shortwave. Guidance is fairly consistent with the placement of
the surface low over the eastern portion of the state, which may re-
develop thunderstorms in the afternoon over the James River Valley.
Shear is weaker in this period but given adequate instability, a few
stronger thunderstorms can't be ruled out.

Thursday, the upper level trough begins to cross the Northern
Rockies and becomes negatively tilted as a jet streak ejects out of
the trough base. In response a surface low will deepen and move
north into eastern Montana, where divergence aloft expected to be
maximized Thursday afternoon. Moderate CAPE is expected to develop
in the warm sector of the surface low across western North Dakota,
where surface dew points should likely exceed 60 F. Kinematics
look impressive with this convective setup, with 40 to near 50 kts
of 0- 6km shear orthogonal to the north-south oriented
convergence zone and strong backing low level flow promoting
longer and possibly more curved hodographs. This environment
should promote a severe thunderstorm threat with all hazards
possible, especially early when more discrete cells are possible.
There are several caveats to the threat ceiling however, with some
guidance keeping the surface low further west into Montana as
storms initiate, which may reduce the threat of a discrete storm
mode in our west. Upscale growth either way is likely as the
surface low and associated front is expected to push across the
state overnight, promoting the transition to a severe wind threat
in the overnight hours.

Conditions dry out by Saturday, though some post-frontal convection
can't be ruled out on Friday, especially across the far north.
Friday is expected to be cooler and breezy to windy as strong flow
aloft and a pressure gradient contribute to increased westerly
winds. Amplified ridging will build this weekend, with better
agreement among 00Z global model clusters for amplitude and ridge
axis placement. Cluster analysis is consistent with a mostly dry
forecast for this period, lining up with the pattern exhibited on
the 12Z deterministic run.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 718 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

VFR conditions will mostly prevail through the forecast, although
showers and thunderstorms could bring MVFR conditions at times.
This evening storms look to focus in eastern and southeastern
portions of the state, including KJMS. Strong winds and hail will
be possible with these storms, as well as brief MVFR conditions.
Elsewhere will see limited thunderstorm activity, with chances
decreasing the further west one goes. Scattered activity could
linger through the night. Tuesday will see another round of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, some
strong to severe with brief MVFR conditions at times. Otherwise
expect mostly VFR conditions and breezy southeast winds for
Tuesday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Anglin
SHORT TERM...Gale
LONG TERM...AE
AVIATION...Anglin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
645 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

NDZ025-036-037-046>048-050-051-082345-
Foster-Kidder-Stutsman-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
645 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota and southeast North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe weather will be possible through this evening with
damaging wind gusts to around 70 mph, large hail around 2 inches
in diameter, and an isolated tornado. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
is in effect until midnight CDT. See www.weather.gov/bismarck for
more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Tuesday. A few storms could be
strong to severe.

There is a chance for thunderstorms with severe weather
on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter are encouraged to contact the National Weather Service
with any severe weather reports.

NDZ020>023-034-035-042-045-082345-
Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Morton-Burleigh-Grant-Sioux-
645 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 /545 PM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms late tonight. Some
storms could be strong to severe with quarter sized hail and
gusty winds up to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday. Some storms may be
severe. Damaging wind around 70 mph, large hail around 2 inches
in diameter, and an isolated tornado will be the potential
hazards.

There is a chance for thunderstorms with severe weather
on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter are encouraged to contact the National Weather Service
with any severe weather reports.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-031>033-040-041-043-044-082345-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Golden Valley-Billings-Stark-
Slope-Hettinger-Bowman-Adams-
645 PM CDT Mon Jun 7 2021 /545 PM MDT Mon Jun 7 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms late tonight. Some
storms could be strong with penny size hail and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

There is a chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday. Some storms may be
severe. Damaging wind around 70 mph, large hail up to the size of
tennis balls, and a tornado will be the potential hazards.

There is a chance for thunderstorms with severe weather
on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter are encouraged to contact the National Weather Service
with any severe weather reports.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
835 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     HAIL             GACKLE                  46.63N 99.14W
06/07/2021  E1.00 INCH       LOGAN              ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
838 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             2 E WISHEK              46.26N 99.51W
06/07/2021  E1.25 INCH       MCINTOSH           ND   STORM CHASER

            QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
848 PM CDT MON JUN 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             5 WNW MILLARTON         46.68N 98.86W
06/07/2021  E2.50 INCH       STUTSMAN           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. SPOTTER FOUND
            TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL ON GROUND.

&&

MJ

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