Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
308 PM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms continue to move through this afternoon before
wrapping up into the evening. A few storms may include gusty
winds. There will be a chance for a few showers Wednesday
before another round of storms returns Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...

A line of strong storms is quickly moving east/southeast
through the area, stretching from around Westmoreland southwest
to Addison. These have been able to lead to occasional damage
across the Finger Lakes. Temperatures have been able to reach
well into the 80s under sunny skies ahead of the line, with
dewpoints in the 60s contributing to up to 1000 to 1500 j/kg of
CAPE. Healthy wind shear up to 30 to 45kts will allow for a
potential for strong to severe gusts through the remainder of
the afternoon and into the early evening. With that, the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been extended across the remainder of our
central NY counties and into Wayne and Pike counties in PA.
This quickly moving line should largely be out of the area by
0Z, with just a chance for some lingering scattered convection
into the night.

Temperatures are quickly falling through the 70s behind the
front, and should continue to drop through the 60s and 50s
through the evening to bottom out in the upper 50s to lower 60s
overnight.

Most of Wednesday and Wednesday night should be quiet, though a
few showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will be possible
with an upper trough in place. Otherwise, expect a cooler day
with highs in the 70s to lower 80s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Clouds increase ahead Wednesday night of weak frontal boundary
will push through the region Thursday. This front should provide
just enough lift and moisture for a few showers and perhaps a
thunderstorm or two. However, deeper moisture and instability
will be confined to areas south of the cold front portion of the
boundary across the southern Great Lakes. This will keep
coverage and intensity of the precipitation down and limit the
potential for any strong to severe thunderstorms.

Still low level lapse rates should steepen
enough to where a gusty storm or two can not be ruled out.
Fairly fast storm motions and lower PW values compared to
recent heavier rainfall events in the past month too. Highs
should make it to around 80 after starting around 60 depending
on clouds and precipitation Thursday afternoon.

Our first potential lake effect shower chance of the season
Thursday night into Friday with northwest flow and warm lake
water. At the very least, clouds will likely be much more
stubborn to hang on than model guidance indicates into a good
chunk of Friday. Temperatures in the 60's and 70's due to plenty
of cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure then builds into the region Friday night through
Saturday night. Clear skies and light winds may very well lead
to favorable radiational cooling Saturday night with a few
indications of upper 40's in a few spots. With full sunshine
temperatures should get into the 70's making for a great weather
start to the weekend. A bit warmer Saturday night compared to
Friday night due to southwesterly flow ahead of the next frontal
boundary.

Another weak frontal boundary looks to pass through on Sunday.
Deep moisture and instability are modeled to be lacking once
again with the front only providing enough lift for scattered
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm with light QPF. This front
moves southeast of the region by Monday though as usual some
timing uncertainty is present within the ensembles. Highs in
the 70's with lows in the 50's.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A line of showers and thunderstorms is beginning to sweep
through the area this afternoon, bringing a chance for gusty
winds and lightning, as well as MVFR or IFR visibility. This
will first pass through KSYR between 18Z and 21Z, then through
KRME and KITH between 19Z and 22Z. KELM, KBGM, and KAVP may see
storms from 20Z to 24Z.

After the storms move through, clouds will lower to between 1500
and 3000 feet across our NY terminals through the first half of
the night, with IFR ceilings likely at KBGM and KELM after
midnight. Minor visibility restrictions are expected,
especially where any rain can fall earlier in the day, and as
winds turn calm, IFR fog will become possible at KELM. A gradual
improvement back to VFR is expected after sunrise.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night...Mainly VFR.

Thursday through Friday...Scattered showers/thunderstorms and
associated restrictions possible, especially the afternoons.

Friday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...Stray showers and thunderstorms possible, otherwise
mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HLC
NEAR TERM...HLC
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...HLC

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