Special Weather Statement, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
321 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An arctic cold front will move across the area this evening. A
much colder air mass, strong to damaging wind gusts, and
scattered snow squalls will occur behind the front. Lake effect
snow showers will then continue into Tuesday morning. Relatively
quiet weather and warmer temperatures return Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
300 PM Update...
Snow squalls have begun to develop near the Great Lakes as
expected this afternoon with the passage of the arctic cold
front. SPC's mesoanalysis show the steep low level lapse rates
will be advecting in over the next few hours with the snow
squalls picking up in intensity. Road temperatures have been
around 50 degrees this afternoon so any roads that are under a
snow squall will initially melt the snow but the falling
temperatures, increasing winds, and high snowfall rates, the
road temperatures can quickly fall below freezing and lead to
flash freezing this evening. After 9pm, snow squalls begin to
lessen in intensity and transition to lake effect snow, which
tapers off tomorrow morning.

Strong to Damaging winds:
The steep lapse rates advecting in will couple with increasing
850 mb winds to around 50 kts and with deep mixing to near 700
mb, some of these winds could mix down to the surface. Greatest
threat for damaging winds (occasional wind gusts up to 60 mph)
will be across portions of Madison, southern Oneida, and Otsego
counties and therefore we have issued a High Wind Warning for
these counties from 1PM this afternoon to 10AM Tuesday. The rest
of the region will still see some strong wind gust, especially
at higher elevations and on hill tops with gusts to 50 mph
possible.

Cold temperatures and wind chills:
Along with the windy conditions tonight, temperatures will be
falling into the low teens and single digits as 850 mb
temperatures fall below -20c. Wind Chills across the Catskills
up through the Mohawk Valley will be in the teens below zero so
a Wind Chill Advisory has been issued.

Tuesday into Tuesday night is much quieter. The cold air in
place aloft keeps day time highs below freezing but winds will
be lessening and any remaining lake effect snow showers coming
to an end. A weak clipper passes through southern Canada Tuesday
night with WAA leading to a much warmer day Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
5 AM

Warm air advection will start to occur, as a quick- moving low
crosses from Manitoba all the way to southeast Ontario
Wednesday. We can expect at least some high clouds reaching
Central NY in the isentropic lift ahead of that low, and perhaps
even a bit of light snow mainly north of the Thruway.
Temperatures will also generally creep a bit late Tuesday night.

The low weakens further while running into what remains of our ridge
Wednesday. However, its associated wave aloft will still sink its
lingering cold front back across the area late Wednesday through
Wednesday night. So after a fairly benign milder day with increasing
clouds from the north, and highs of upper 30s to upper 40s,
temperatures will drop mainly into 20s by dawn Thursday.
Northwesterly winds will also start to produce at least
scattered lake effect snow showers Wednesday night, southeast of
Lake Ontario. Temperatures Wednesday afternoon should be a few
degrees warmer than blended model guidance which has been too
cool recently on days with sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Only minor changes with the forecast in the long term period,
previous discussion below.

Thursday through at least the first half of the weekend, will
be defined by a deep cold cutoff stacked Arctic low wobbling
over far eastern Canada into New England. With our region in
cyclonic flow on the cold side of this system, this yields a
prolonged period of chilly northwest to west-northwest low level
flow, and resultant persistent multi-banded lake effect snow
showers off of Lake Ontario and the Finger Lakes. High
temperatures will generally be 20s to mid 30s Thursday through
Saturday with overnight lows in teens-near 20 but with some
single digits possible especially in northern Oneida.

As we head into early next week, models generally depict the stacked
low opening into an amplified trough that gradually lifts out.
However, they greatly disagree on what happens from there in
terms of timing. The GFS/CMC are faster lifting out the trough
with the ECMWF lingering it longer. Once the trough lifts out a
moderating trend should begin.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR ceilings linger at most TAF sites this afternoon but may
lift to VFR for brief intervals into the early evening before
trending downward again at NY terminals tonight. Our first
concern will be some scattered snow showers and squalls roughly
from 20Z till around 03Z for all NY terminals. While these
should be scattered,brief visibility restrictions to IFR and
even LIFR are likely to occur with these snow showers. There is
still some uncertainty with the timing at any given site so
given the uncertainty opted for TEMPO groups to account for the
snow showers.

However, our main concern is for gusty winds to ramp up by late
afternoon with the highest gusts in the late afternoon and early
evening hours. Top gusts look to be in the 35-50 mph range from
the northwest with the highest values at KRME and KSYR. Wind
gusts decrease overnight and on Tuesday to around 15-25 knots by
late Tuesday morning. Fairly high confidence on a period of
high wind gusts later today and tonight. MVFR ceilings at the
NY terminals lift slowly Tuesday morning with expected VFR
continuing at KAVP.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon... VFR and still windy.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Quiet weather with VFR
conditions.

Thursday into Saturday...Occasional lake effect snow showers
may bring occasional restrictions to the Central NY terminals.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ040-044-047-048-
     072.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ038-039-043.
NY...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ009-018-044-045-
     057-062.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ015>017-022>025-
     055-056.
     High Wind Warning until 10 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ036-037-046.
     Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Tuesday
     for NYZ009-036-037-046-057.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJG/BJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...MDP/MWG
LONG TERM...MDP/MWG
AVIATION...MWG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
413 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

PAZ040-044-047-048-072-020915-
Northern Wayne-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
413 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory beginning 4 PM this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory until 10 AM Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ009-057-020915-
Northern Oneida-Delaware-
413 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory beginning 1 PM this afternoon.
   Wind Chill Advisory beginning midnight tonight.

Also, scattered snow squalls are possible late this afternoon into
evening. Any squalls will have the potential to cause rapid changes
in road conditions, low visibility, and up to a quick inch of snow.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory until 10 AM Tuesday.
   Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ015>017-022>025-055-056-PAZ038-039-043-020915-
Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Tioga-
Broome-Bradford-Susquehanna-Wyoming-
413 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM Tuesday.

Also, scattered snow squalls are possible late this afternoon into
evening. Any squalls will have the potential to cause rapid changes
in road conditions, low visibility, and up to a quick inch of snow.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ018-044-045-062-020915-
Onondaga-Cortland-Chenango-Sullivan-
413 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory beginning 1 PM this afternoon.

Also, scattered snow squalls are possible late this afternoon into
evening. Any squalls will have the potential to cause rapid changes
in road conditions, low visibility, and up to a quick inch of snow.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory until 10 AM Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ036-037-046-020915-
Madison-Southern Oneida-Otsego-
413 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning beginning 1 PM this afternoon.
   Wind Chill Advisory beginning midnight tonight.

Also, scattered snow squalls are possible late this afternoon into
evening. Any squalls will have the potential to cause rapid changes
in road conditions, low visibility, and up to a quick inch of snow.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning until 10 AM Tuesday.
   Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any damage that occurs from high
winds, and peak wind measurements, late today through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
216 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

NYZ015>017-025-011945-
Southern Cayuga-Seneca-Yates-Tompkins-
216 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SENECA...NORTHERN
YATES... SOUTHERN CAYUGA AND NORTHERN TOMPKINS COUNTIES...

At 209 PM EST, snow showers will increase in coverage and intensity
during the mid afternoon. A heavier band of snow showers was located
along a line extending from near Hemlock to Willard. Movement was
east at 30 mph. Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a half
mile in these heavier snow showers.

Locations impacted include...
Penn Yan, Romulus, Benton, Groton, Covert, Locke, Genoa, Dryden,
Ledyard and Potter.

Use extra caution if traveling this afternoon and evening. Slow down
and allow extra time when traveling. Rapid changes in visibility and
potentially slick roads as snow melts and then quickly refreezes can
lead to accidents.

LAT...LON 4273 7734 4276 7731 4276 7698 4283 7697
      4279 7658 4269 7628 4248 7626 4268 7736
      4270 7736
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 289DEG 27KT 4284 7768 4271 7684

JRK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
311 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

NYZ015>018-023>025-036-044-045-055-056-012145-
Chemung-Chenango-Onondaga-Cortland-Southern
Cayuga-Seneca-Yates-Schuyler-Madison-Tioga-Broome-Tompkins-
311 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...THE THREAT OF SNOW SQUALLS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK...

At 300 PM EST, snow showers have increased in coverage and intensity
across Central New York. This trend is expected to continue over the
next few hours with an increasing potential for snow squalls to
develop in the late afternoon.

Locations impacted include...
Onondaga, Syracuse, Clay, Cicero, Ithaca, Auburn, De Witt, Lysander,
Cortland and Sullivan.

Visibilities in these snow squalls will drop quickly to a quarter
mile or less.

Use extra caution if traveling this afternoon by slowing down and
allowing extra time. Rapid changes in visibility can lead to
accidents. Although roads are currently warm this afternoon,
temperatures will drop quickly behind an arctic front. This will
increase the risk of slick roads and accidents toward sunset as snow
melts and then quickly refreezes.

LAT...LON 4271 7735 4276 7730 4276 7698 4301 7696
      4303 7650 4322 7648 4322 7637 4324 7627
      4324 7626 4320 7622 4327 7621 4318 7601
      4316 7579 4304 7558 4291 7550 4235 7556
      4213 7600 4217 7673 4251 7715 4257 7714
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 289DEG 27KT 4268 7709 4255 7626

JRK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
324 PM EST MON MAR 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ROME                    43.23N 75.49W
03/01/2021                   ONEIDA             NY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ON TURIN ROAD WITH 1,600 WITHOUT
            POWER.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
447 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

NYZ015-016-023-025-044>046-055>057-012230-
Otsego-Chenango-Cortland-Seneca-Yates-Schuyler-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-
Tompkins-
447 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SENECA...SOUTHWESTERN
OTSEGO...NORTHERN SCHUYLER...SOUTHEASTERN YATES...NORTHERN BROOME...
NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN CORTLAND...NORTHEASTERN TIOGA...
TOMPKINS AND CHENANGO COUNTIES...

At 446 PM EST, moderate to heavy snow showers were located along a
line extending from near Porter Corner to near Harford to Sidney.
Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Ithaca, Cortland, Oneonta, Norwich, Maine, Newfield, Hector, Sidney,
Cayuga Heights and Starkey.

Visibilities in these snow showers and squalls will drop quickly to
a quarter mile or less.

Use extra caution if traveling by slowing down and allowing extra
time. Rapid changes in visibility can lead to accidents. Although
roads are currently above freezing, temperatures will continue to
drop quickly late this afternoon behind an arctic front. This will
increase the risk of slick roads and accidents as we approach sunset
as snow melts and then quickly refreezes.

LAT...LON 4207 7484 4222 7627 4242 7690 4252 7715
      4257 7715 4265 7538 4252 7499 4219 7470
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 292DEG 17KT 4252 7705 4239 7620 4229 7540

JRK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
535 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

NYZ025-044>046-055>057-062-012330-
Otsego-Chenango-Cortland-Tioga-Broome-Sullivan-Delaware-Tompkins-
535 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
OTSEGO...BROOME... SOUTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHERN CORTLAND...
NORTHEASTERN TIOGA...TOMPKINS...SOUTHERN CHENANGO AND NORTHWESTERN
SULLIVAN COUNTIES...

At 528 PM EST, moderate to heavy snow showers were located along a
line extending from Enfield to Whitney Point to near Downsville.
Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Rockland, Binghamton, Ithaca, Cortland, Johnson City, Maine, Sidney,
Cayuga Heights, Lansing and Enfield.

Visibilities in these snow showers and squalls will drop quickly to
under one-half mile. A quick half inch to one inch of snow is
possible with the most persistent snow showers.

Use extra caution if traveling by slowing down and allowing extra
time. Temperatures will continue to drop quickly behind an arctic
front through sunset. Rapid changes in visibility and potentially
slick roads as snow melts and then quickly refreezes will lead to
accidents. High elevations and untreated secondary roads will be the
first to become snow covered and icy.

LAT...LON 4182 7506 4190 7527 4194 7528 4195 7532
      4200 7536 4200 7556 4220 7630 4244 7669
      4247 7669 4264 7618 4248 7546 4224 7510
      4208 7464 4202 7478 4195 7462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 295DEG 23KT 4242 7660 4232 7596 4209 7506

JRK