Flash Flood Watch 7, NWS Binghamton, NY

Broome County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Madison County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Yates County, NY, Bradford County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Pike County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA

044 
WGUS61 KBGM 180141
FFABGM

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
941 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021


NYZ009-015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044-180945-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210819T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-
Including the cities of Boonville, Penn Yan, Seneca Falls, 
Auburn, Syracuse, Corning, Hornell, Watkins Glen, Ithaca, 
Hamilton, Oneida, Rome, Utica, and Cortland
941 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central New York, including the following areas, 
  Cortland, Madison, Northern Oneida, Onondaga, Schuyler, 
  Seneca, Southern Cayuga, Southern Oneida, Steuben, Tompkins, 
  and Yates. 

* Through Thursday morning

* Scattered heavy rain showers and thunderstorms are expected 
  out ahead of the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred this 
  afternoon through this evening. The remnants of Fred will push 
  through Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Localized 
  rainfall amounts over 5 inches will be possible and this would 
  lead to flash flooding in some areas. 

* Heavy rainfall may cause rapid rises on creeks and streams, 
  leading to flash flooding. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NYZ024-045-046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-180945-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0007.210818T0900Z-210819T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chemung-Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-
Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-
Southern Wayne-
Including the cities of Elmira, Norwich, Oneonta, Owego, Waverly,
Binghamton, Delhi, Walton, Monticello, Sayre, Towanda, Hallstead,
Montrose, Damascus, Equinunk, Tunkhannock, Scranton, Hazleton, 
Wilkes-Barre, Milford, and Honesdale
941 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, 
  including the following areas, in central New York, Broome, 
  Chemung, Chenango, Delaware, Otsego, Sullivan, and Tioga. In 
  northeast Pennsylvania, Bradford, Lackawanna, Luzerne, 
  Northern Wayne, Pike, Southern Wayne, Susquehanna, and 
  Wyoming. 

* From 5 AM EDT Wednesday through Thursday morning

* Scattered heavy rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms 
  are expected out ahead of the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred 
  early Wednesday morning. The remnants of Fred will push 
  through Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Localized 
  rainfall amounts over 5 inches will be possible and this would 
  lead to flash flooding in some areas. 

* Heavy rainfall may cause rapid rises on creeks and streams, 
  leading to flash flooding. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

230 
WGUS61 KBGM 180734
FFABGM

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
334 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

NYZ009-015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044-181545-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210819T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-
Including the cities of Cortland, Utica, Hornell, Oneida, Auburn, 
Seneca Falls, Rome, Hamilton, Corning, Boonville, Penn Yan, Watkins 
Glen, Ithaca, and Syracuse
334 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central New York, including the following areas, 
  Cortland, Madison, Northern Oneida, Onondaga, Schuyler, Seneca, 
  Southern Cayuga, Southern Oneida, Steuben, Tompkins and Yates.

* Through Thursday morning.

* The remnants of Tropical Storm Fred will push through today into 
  early Thursday morning, with widespread rain and embedded 
  thunderstorms. Broad rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are likely 
  with localized heavier amounts over 3 inches possible, which would 
  lead to flash flooding in some areas, especially in areas of the 
  Finger Lakes that received 2 to 4 inches on Tuesday.

* Heavy rainfall may cause rapid rises on creeks and streams, 
  leading to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NYZ024-045-046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-181545-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0007.210818T0900Z-210819T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chemung-Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-
Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern
Wayne-
Including the cities of Waverly, Milford, Sayre, Damascus, Equinunk, 
Norwich, Scranton, Tunkhannock, Delhi, Monticello, Oneonta, Elmira, 
Walton, Wilkes-Barre, Binghamton, Hazleton, Owego, Montrose, 
Hallstead, Towanda, and Honesdale
334 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, including 
  the following areas, in central New York, Broome, Chemung, 
  Chenango, Delaware, Otsego, Sullivan and Tioga. In northeast 
  Pennsylvania, Bradford, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Northern Wayne, Pike, 
  Southern Wayne, Susquehanna and Wyoming.

* Through Thursday morning.

* The remnants of Tropical Storm Fred will push through today into 
  early Thursday morning, with widespread rain and embedded 
  thunderstorms. Broad rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are likely 
  with localized heavier amounts over 5 inches possible, which would 
  lead to flash flooding in some areas.

* Heavy rainfall may cause rapid rises on creeks and streams, 
  leading to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

BJT

267 
WGUS61 KBGM 182026
FFABGM

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
426 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

NYZ009-015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044-190430-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210819T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-
Including the cities of Cortland, Utica, Hornell, Oneida, Auburn, 
Seneca Falls, Rome, Hamilton, Corning, Boonville, Penn Yan, Watkins 
Glen, Ithaca, and Syracuse
426 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central New York, including the following areas, 
  Cortland, Madison, Northern Oneida, Onondaga, Schuyler, Seneca, 
  Southern Cayuga, Southern Oneida, Steuben, Tompkins and Yates.

* Through Thursday morning.

* The remnants of Tropical Storm Fred will push through this evening 
  into early Thursday morning, with widespread rain and embedded
  thunderstorms. Broad rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are likely 
  with localized heavier amounts over 3 inches possible, which would 
  lead to flash flooding in some areas, especially in areas of the 
  Finger Lakes that received 2 to 4 inches on Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NYZ024-045-046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-190430-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210819T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chemung-Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-
Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern
Wayne-
Including the cities of Waverly, Milford, Sayre, Damascus, Equinunk, 
Norwich, Scranton, Tunkhannock, Delhi, Monticello, Oneonta, Elmira, 
Walton, Wilkes-Barre, Binghamton, Hazleton, Owego, Montrose, 
Hallstead, Towanda, and Honesdale
426 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, including 
  the following areas, in central New York, Broome, Chemung, 
  Chenango, Delaware, Otsego, Sullivan and Tioga. In northeast 
  Pennsylvania, Bradford, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Northern Wayne, Pike, 
  Southern Wayne, Susquehanna and Wyoming.

* Through Thursday morning.

* The remnants of Tropical Storm Fred will push through this evening 
  into early Thursday morning, with widespread rain and embedded
  thunderstorms. Broad rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are likely 
  with localized heavier amounts up to 5 inches possible, which would
  lead to flash flooding in some areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Kistner

925 
WGUS61 KBGM 190128
FFABGM

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
928 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

NYZ009-015>018-022-023-025-036-037-044-190930-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210819T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-
Including the cities of Cortland, Utica, Hornell, Oneida, Auburn, 
Seneca Falls, Rome, Hamilton, Corning, Boonville, Penn Yan, Watkins 
Glen, Ithaca, and Syracuse
928 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central New York, including the following areas, 
  Cortland, Madison, Northern Oneida, Onondaga, Schuyler, Seneca, 
  Southern Cayuga, Southern Oneida, Steuben, Tompkins and Yates.

* Until 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* The remnants of Tropical Storm Fred will push through tonight into 
  early Thursday morning, with widespread rain and embedded
  thunderstorms. Broad rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are likely 
  with localized heavier amounts over 3 inches possible, which would 
  lead to flash flooding in some areas, especially in areas of the 
  Finger Lakes that received 2 to 4 inches on Tuesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NYZ024-045-046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-190930-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210819T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chemung-Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-
Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern
Wayne-
Including the cities of Waverly, Milford, Sayre, Damascus, Equinunk, 
Norwich, Scranton, Tunkhannock, Delhi, Monticello, Oneonta, Elmira, 
Walton, Wilkes-Barre, Binghamton, Hazleton, Owego, Montrose, 
Hallstead, Towanda, and Honesdale
928 PM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania, including 
  the following areas, in central New York, Broome, Chemung, 
  Chenango, Delaware, Otsego, Sullivan and Tioga. In northeast 
  Pennsylvania, Bradford, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Northern Wayne, Pike, 
  Southern Wayne, Susquehanna and Wyoming.

* Until 8 AM EDT Thursday.

* The remnants of Tropical Storm Fred will push through tonight into 
  early Thursday morning, with widespread rain and embedded
  thunderstorms. Broad rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are likely 
  with localized heavier amounts up to 5 inches possible, which would
  lead to flash flooding in some areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

BTL

168 
WGUS61 KBGM 190805
FFABGM

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
405 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

NYZ015-016-022>024-055-056-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-190915-
/O.CAN.KBGM.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210819T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yates-Seneca-Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-Tioga-Broome-Bradford-
Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern
Wayne-
Including the cities of Waverly, Milford, Sayre, Damascus, Equinunk, 
Montrose, Scranton, Tunkhannock, Hornell, Binghamton, Elmira, Seneca 
Falls, Wilkes-Barre, Corning, Hazleton, Owego, Penn Yan, Honesdale, 
Hallstead, Towanda, and Watkins Glen
405 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of central New York and northeast 
Pennsylvania, including the following areas, in central New York, 
Broome, Chemung, Schuyler, Seneca, Steuben, Tioga and Yates. In 
northeast Pennsylvania, Bradford, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Wayne, Pike,  
Susquehanna and Wyoming has been cancelled.

The Flood Watch is cancelled. Heavy rain has moved out of the area 
and any flooding is receding.

$$

NYZ009-017-018-025-036-037-044-191200-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210819T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Oneida-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Tompkins-Madison-Southern
Oneida-Cortland-
Including the cities of Oneida, Auburn, Rome, Hamilton, Utica, 
Boonville, Cortland, Ithaca, and Syracuse
405 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central New York, including the following areas, 
  Cortland, Madison, Northern Oneida, Onondaga, Southern Cayuga, 
  Southern Oneida and Tompkins.

* Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* The remnants of Tropical Storm Fred will push through early this 
  morning, with widespread rain. Broad rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 
  inches are likely with localized heavier amounts over 3 inches 
  possible, which would lead to flash flooding in some areas, 
  especially in areas of the Finger Lakes that received 2 to 4 
  inches on Tuesday.

* Heavy rainfall may still cause rapid rises on creeks and streams, 
  leading to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NYZ045-046-057-062-191200-
/O.CON.KBGM.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-210819T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chenango-Otsego-Delaware-Sullivan-
Including the cities of Walton, Delhi, Monticello, Oneonta, and 
Norwich
405 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of central New York, including the following areas, 
  Chenango, Delaware, Otsego and Sullivan.

* Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* The remnants of Tropical Storm Fred will push through early this  
  morning, with widespread rain. Broad rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 
  inches are likely with localized heavier amounts up to 5 inches 
  possible, which would lead to flash flooding in some areas.

* Heavy rainfall may cause rapid rises on creeks and streams, 
  leading to flash flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

TAC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
904 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will continue across the region today as a warm front
lifts through the area. Thunderstorms are possible later today
with some storms producing heavy rain. On Wednesday, remnants
of tropical storm Fred are expected to move through the region
into Thursday with additional rounds of heavy rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
900 am update...

Made some minor adjustments to PoP through early this afternoon.
Forecast soundings showing tall skinny CAPE this afternoon with
warm cloud depths over 12K feet and PWATs over 2". Heavy
rainfall rates with embedded convection is expected this
afternoon into this evening. Although flash flood guidance
values are fairly high with recent dry stretch, there is some
potential for localized flash flooding later today if heavy
showers line up and continuously hit the same area. If anything,
this first round of rainfall today may prime the region by
moistening soils and elevate the flash flood potential for when
the remnants of Fred come through tomorrow through Thursday.
Starting to lean towards the issuance of a flash flood watch
with this afternoon's forecast package, but will wait for the
12Z guidance to come in before making decisions on a watch at
this time.

650 am update...
No major changes made to the forecast early this morning.
Incorporated the latest observations and radar/satellite imagery
into the forecast.

424 am update...
Main concerns in the near term are focused on the widespread
rain today through Wednesday with periods of showers and storms
in the afternoon/early evening today, and again later in the day
Wednesday. Some of the thunderstorms could produce heavy
rain...with a slightly higher potential for severe storms
Wednesday afternoon. Areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy
rain could become susceptible to flash flooding.

Synoptic pattern continues to be defined by a ridge of high
pressure off the Atlantic coast and a long wave trough over the
central US. This pattern has led to a persistent deep layer of
moisture streaming north across the Appalachians and mid
Atlantic region. There is now a broad area of PWs 1.8 to 2
inches across all of central NY and ne PA. A weak short wave
within the flow is lifting northward from the Ohio Valley into
the ern Great Lakes today and will provide enough forcing within
this very moist air mass to trigger persistent rain through the
day. The precipitation should become more convective in nature
by the afternoon as the boundary layer destabilizes slightly,
but enough to produce a chance of thunderstorms across the
region. Thunderstorms should be very efficient rain producers
with 1 inch per hour rates possible. Will need to be aware of
possible isolated flash flooding if storms start to train over
the same areas. There is also the possibility of strong
downdrafts within the deeper storms that may produce strong
outflow winds.

Temperatures today will warm into the mid 70s to near 80.
Although it may feel just a bit more uncomfortable with dew
points back into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

The short wave lifts out of the area later tonight, but the
potential for light rain will likely exist through the night
within the rich air mass. The environment will stabilize
somewhat tonight, so should see rainfall rates drop by the late
evening.

More humidity tomorrow...dew points into the lower 70s
again...will combine with typical August heating and sfc
temperatures into the upper 70s and lower 80s to produce another
unstable air mass. The environment will be modified by the
influx of the remnants of TS Fred, which may push PWs over 2
inches. The combination of afternoon heating and a tropical type
air mass will result in notable instability out ahead of the
center of circulation. There also may be enough dynamics
associated with the circulation to induce a modest veering wind
profile and a fair amount of low level shear. This could aid in
thunderstorm development and maturity, and also bring with it
the potential for a few quick tornado spin-ups or damaging
winds. Will also have to be aware of areas that have received
heavy rain recently and if those locations get hit again with a
tropical-type thunderstorm and high rainfall rates, the threat
of flash flooding will likely increase quickly. Depending on how
the convection on Tuesday evolves and how much rain is produced,
may need a Flash Flood Watch for sensitive areas and locations
expected to be impacted by the rain from Fred remnants.

Highs on Wednesday will rise back into the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
330 am update...

Remnants of tropical storm Fred will impact the area Wednesday
night into Thursday as the surface low moves through our area.
The Euro is the slowest by far so the low should be leaving the
western Catskills midday. The biggest threat will be flash
flooding. Tropical moisture will push precipitable water to 2
inches and the warm cloud depth to 13k feet. Being late at night
there is little instability but could be some to the southeast
of the low on the order of a few hundred J/kg of CAPE. This area
includes most of NEPA and the western Catskills. Bulk shear
will be around 30 kts. Rainfall with Fred could be a widespread
inch with localized much more. Will need to see what happens
with today's rain. Areas that get heavy rain today and tonight
will be more prone to the heavy rain Wednesday night into
Thursday. Thursday night weak instability and better lapse rates
will start to move east ahead of the next system. Rainfall
amounts should be light due to weak forcing.

Temperatures will be warm with humidity. Lows in the 60s and
highs Thursday mid 70s to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 am update...

Not much change. Unsettled but more of a diurnal nature to the
showers and thunderstorms. Muggy and warm weather will continue
as weak fronts move through. A weak upper level trough to start
moves east setting up a zonal flow next week.

Temperatures warm slowly with highs Sunday in the 80s
everywhere then cooling slowly into Tuesday. Lows will be mostly
in the 60s every night.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A broad area of rain continues across the region as an upper
shortwave trough lifts north through the area. Rain is generally
light in nature with some isolated embedded heavier bursts at
times. Flight conditions are mixed...from IFR to VFR. Conditions
improve slowly after 15Z. The boundary layer deepens by the
early afternoon which should lift conditions a category or two
with scattered showers possible through the afternoon.

Still anticipating the potential for thunderstorms between
21-03Z with an area of weak to moderate instability lifting
across the region. Model agreement remains consistent...so
confidence is still solid for all terminals during this window.
Ceilings may drop back down to fuel alternate or MVFR after 03Z
with light rain showers persisting. The rain main let up a bit
after 06Z tonight, but the low clouds and light fog could
persist.

Winds will remain south/southeast around 5 to 10 kt with a few
gusts to 15 kt possible in the afternoon. The winds shift ever
so slightly to the south and continue around 5 to 10 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday... Some restrictions with several
rounds and showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT/MPK
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...BJT/HLC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
428 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-180830-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-
Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
428 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon may produce locally heavy
rainfall that could lead to flash flooding in a few locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional rounds of heavy rainfall associated with remnants of
tropical storm Fred are possible Wednesday and Thursday. Locations
that experience multiple rounds of heavy rain may see urban and small
stream flooding. There is also a threat of severe thunderstorms
Wednesday and Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS while following local, state and CDC
guidelines.