Areal Flood Warning 29, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
838 PM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system has brought periods of rain to our
area, which will end tonight. Flash flooding and river
flooding is ongoing. Dry and seasonably mild weather returns
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
820 PM Update...
Surface observations and RUC13 analysis show the surface low
over northern NJ has weakened into an open trough, which still
extends back to the northwest into the Finger Lakes region.
However, while low level convergence remains strong across this
boundary, upper level support is quickly diminishing as a
shortwave trough/vort max rotating around the parent upper low
over the Delmarva moves into south-central PA (clearly visible
on mesmerizing water vapor satellite imagery). One hour rainfall
rates have greatly diminished over the past hour as the precip
band has pivoted into western NY. Additional rainfall is working
in from the northeast, but gauge reports show 1 hour rainfall
amounts of just a few 0.01s of an inch. Further south, radar
mosaic from surrounding sites shows clear downsloping effect
over Delaware and Sullivan Counties, limiting precip amounts
west of the Catskills. Some moderate rainfall is working back
into Pike County at the head of the "firehose" stretching back
into the Atlantic, too far south to benefit from the Catskills'
shadowing. However, even here rainfall amounts are generally
around 0.10 to 0.15 inches an hour over nearby Ulster County and
NW New Jersey. More concerning rainfall rates can be found over
western Long Island, and are expected to stay out of our CWA.

Precip coverage may appear to increase in the next few hours as
the western part of this complex system weakens, allowing the
dryslot over the Southern Tier and NE PA to fill in. But
rainfall rates will be light, and coverage will become spottier
and more showery towards Midnight.

In terms of the flooding threat, additional rainfall is not
expected to be much of a contributing factor. It's all just
runoff and possible reservoir releases going forward.

4 pm update...

Rain continues with many warnings out for flooding. A cut-off
low is centered over PA while a deepening surface low is off of
Cape Cod. Both are slowly moving east. An inverted trough
extends northwest into the area from the surface low. This is
providing convergence over the area. Deep warm moist air is
being funneled along the surface trough into our area. As the
upper low captures the coast low and both move east the moisture
stream and rain will end late evening. Rainfall slowly tapers
off from south to north. With the coastal low, the Poconos and
Catskills will have breezy winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to
30.

Clouds will still wrap around from the northeast on Wednesday
but we will be dry. High pressure builds in from Quebec as
upper level heights build late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
As the drier air comes in skies will clear Wednesday night.

Temperatures will only fall into the 40s tonight. Wednesday
warms into the mid and upper 50s and lower 60s with some late
day sun. With the drier air temperatures fall into the mid and
upper 30s and lower 40s Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Update:

A trough digging into the central US will result in mid and upper
level ridging across NY and PA on Thursday. Dry air aloft will keep
the region partly cloudy with temperatures getting back to
seasonably warm. Increasing southerly flow Thursday night into
Friday increases the cloud cover along with precipitation moving
back in late Friday as a warm front lifts into the region. Most
models have the warm front progressive with a several hour period
with preliminary QPF of 0.5 to 1 inch. With recent rainfall
localized flash flooding is a concern once again Friday afternoon
into Friday night. As the trough moves into the northeast Friday
night, a surface low moves in keeping clouds and rain showers going
into Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
300 PM Update:

The upper level trough slowly propagates through the northeast
this weekend with unsettled and cooler weather. NW flow early
next week with cool 850 mb temps results in chances of lake
effect rain showers along and north of I 90 early next week.
Still little to no chance of any overnight freezes in the long
term.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Precip will continue to fill back in over much of the area over
the next few hours before diminishing in coverage, however
rainfall rates will be much lighter, allowing visibilities to
generally increase. Ceilings will be more problematic, with MVFR
to IFR expected most of the night, but with a lot of
variability, even brief VFR in some areas.

Ceilings will improve to VFR at SYR and RME before dawn, and
between 14Z and 19Z elsewhere.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday through Sunday...Restrictions likely with rain returning.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ045-046-
     055>057-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPH/TAC
NEAR TERM...MPH/TAC
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...MPH/TAC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
355 PM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021

NYZ045-046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-272000-
Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
355 PM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

More rain will fall Friday to Saturday possibly causing more flash
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044-272000-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-
355 PM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Rain will continue into tonight before ending. Flash flooding and
river flooding are possible. You should monitor later forecasts and
be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

More rain will fall Friday to Saturday possibly causing more flash
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

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