Areal Flood Warning 28, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
516 PM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system has brought periods of rain to our
area, which will end tonight. Flash flooding and river
flooding is ongoing. Dry and seasonably mild weather returns
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 pm update...

Rain continues with many warnings out for flooding. A cut-off
low is centered over PA while a deepening surface low is off of
Cape Cod. Both are slowly moving east. An inverted trough
extends northwest into the area from the surface low. This is
providing convergence over the area. Deep warm moist air is
being funneled along the surface trough into our area. As the
upper low captures the coast low and both move east the moisture
stream and rain will end late evening. Rainfall slowly tapers
off from south to north. With the coastal low, the Poconos and
Catskills will have breezy winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to
30.

Clouds will still wrap around from the northeast on Wednesday
but we will be dry. High pressure builds in from Quebec as
upper level heights build late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
As the drier air comes in skies will clear Wednesday night.

Temperatures will only fall into the 40s tonight. Wednesday
warms into the mid and upper 50s and lower 60s with some late
day sun. With the drier air temperatures fall into the mid and
upper 30s and lower 40s Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Update:

A trough digging into the central US will result in mid and upper
level ridging across NY and PA on Thursday. Dry air aloft will keep
the region partly cloudy with temperatures getting back to
seasonably warm. Increasing southerly flow Thursday night into
Friday increases the cloud cover along with precipitation moving
back in late Friday as a warm front lifts into the region. Most
models have the warm front progressive with a several hour period
with preliminary QPF of 0.5 to 1 inch. With recent rainfall
localized flash flooding is a concern once again Friday afternoon
into Friday night. As the trough moves into the northeast Friday
night, a surface low moves in keeping clouds and rain showers going
into Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
300 PM Update:

The upper level trough slowly propagates through the northeast
this weekend with unsettled and cooler weather. NW flow early
next week with cool 850 mb temps results in chances of lake
effect rain showers along and north of I 90 early next week.
Still little to no chance of any overnight freezes in the long
term.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
145 pm update...

Steady moderate rain over most of the area with restrictions,
continues into the evening. Slow improvement Wednesday.

All sites wavering between IFR and fuel alternate MVFR due to
ceilings and visibilities. As the rain tapers off this evening
visibilities improve to MVFR then VFR late tonight. Cigs stay
down through 12z then improve to VFR SYR/RME and MVFR rest by
16z.

Northwest to north winds at 10 kts with some higher gusts.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday through Sunday...Restrictions likely with rain.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ045-046-
     055>057-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...TAC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
355 PM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021

NYZ045-046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-272000-
Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
355 PM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

More rain will fall Friday to Saturday possibly causing more flash
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044-272000-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-
355 PM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Rain will continue into tonight before ending. Flash flooding and
river flooding are possible. You should monitor later forecasts and
be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

More rain will fall Friday to Saturday possibly causing more flash
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
634 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1.5 NE FREEVILLE        42.53N 76.33W
10/26/2021  M2.16 INCH       TOMPKINS           NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
649 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CORTLAND                42.60N 76.18W
10/26/2021                   CORTLAND           NY   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE ROADS FLOODED AND CLOSED.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
655 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HEAVY RAIN       VENICE CENTER           42.73N 76.55W
10/26/2021  M1.97 INCH       CAYUGA             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0645 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CATHARINE               42.32N 76.78W
10/26/2021  M3.10 INCH       SCHUYLER           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
656 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE PORT CRANE         42.15N 75.81W
10/26/2021  M2.50 INCH       BROOME             NY   PUBLIC

0420 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW WEST PITTSTON      41.34N 75.81W
10/26/2021  M1.75 INCH       LUZERNE            PA   PUBLIC

&&

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