Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS La Crosse, WI

308 
WWUS53 KARX 180405
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1105 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

MNC055-169-WIC063-081-121-180430-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-210618T0430Z/
Winona MN-Houston MN-La Crosse WI-Monroe WI-Trempealeau WI-
1105 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WINONA...NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON...LA CROSSE...WEST
CENTRAL MONROE AND SOUTHEASTERN TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES...

At 1104 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Onalaska, or
near La Crosse, moving southeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters reported golf ball size hail near 
         Nodine, MN.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  West Salem around 1110 PM CDT.
  Bangor around 1115 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Irish
Hill, North Side Of La Crosse, Camp Decorah, South Side Of La Crosse,
Goose Island, Stevenstown and Highways 14 61 And County M M.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 in Minnesota between mile markers 262 and 276.
 Interstate 90 in Wisconsin between mile markers 1 and 27.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4372 9107 4372 9126 4386 9161 4412 9122
      4411 9115 4407 9115 4408 9097 4402 9066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0404Z 294DEG 46KT 4388 9124 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Kurz

499 
WWUS53 KARX 180418
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1118 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

MNC169-WIC121-180427-
/O.CAN.KARX.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-210618T0430Z/
Winona MN-Trempealeau WI-
1118 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WINONA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TREMPEALEAU COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened and 
moved out of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been 
cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
southeastern Minnesota...and southwestern and west central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4372 9107 4372 9126 4374 9131 4385 9128
      4408 9098 4408 9097 4402 9066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0417Z 294DEG 49KT 4376 9100 

$$

MNC055-WIC063-081-180430-
/O.CON.KARX.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-210618T0430Z/
Houston MN-La Crosse WI-Monroe WI-
1118 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON...LA CROSSE AND WEST CENTRAL MONROE
COUNTIES...

At 1117 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Coon Valley,
or 12 miles east of La Crosse, moving southeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Houston, La Crosse and west central Monroe Counties,
including the following locations... Irish Hill, North Side Of La
Crosse, South Side Of La Crosse, Goose Island, Highways 14 61 And
County M M, Rockland and County Roads D E And E.

This includes Interstate 90 in Wisconsin between mile markers 2 and
27.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4372 9107 4372 9126 4374 9131 4385 9128
      4408 9098 4408 9097 4402 9066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0417Z 294DEG 49KT 4376 9100 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Kurz

874 
WWUS53 KARX 180423
SVSARX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1123 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

MNC055-WIC063-081-180433-
/O.EXP.KARX.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-210618T0430Z/
Houston MN-La Crosse WI-Monroe WI-
1123 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON...LA
CROSSE AND WEST CENTRAL MONROE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1130 PM CDT...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
southeastern Minnesota...and southwestern and west central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4372 9107 4372 9126 4374 9131 4385 9128
      4408 9098 4408 9097 4402 9066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0423Z 287DEG 40KT 4376 9098 

$$

Kurz

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
656 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

The threat for impactful severe weather remains on tap for much
of the forecast area late this afternoon into the overnight hours.

As of 19Z, a poorly defined cold front stretched from Polk and
St. Croix counties southwestward through the southern Twin Cities
metro to south of Sioux Falls. Ahead of this baroclinic zone, a
narrow corridor of rich theta-e air exists with surface dewpoints
in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees and temperatures pushing 90+
degrees. Mid-level convection associated with the leading edge of
an upper level impulse/jet streak have been progressing into
central Minnesota and spreading cloud debris and high-based
thundershowers/virga eastward across the forecast area. There is
some uncertainty as to how this complex will affect the threat for
surface-based convection later this afternoon. However, given the
the bulk of the daytime heating haven taken place and continued
southwesterly low-level theta-e advection continuing through the
afternoon just ahead of the boundary, minimal modification of the
near-surface airmass is expected.

Impressive mid-level lapse rates coupled with the rich lower
tropospheric theta-e ribbon will yield 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE at
peak heating just ahead of the boundary. Increasing H700-500 wind
speeds ahead of the approaching upper level jet will yield 30-50
kts of effective shear in the column, plus with shear vectors
oriented nearly orthogonal to the frontal slope, the initial
storms should have an appreciable off-boundary motion which would
promote discrete convection early on, but upscale growth into a
multi-cell or linear complex is expected as we head into the
evening hours.

The locations impacted by convection for this event is still a
bit nebulous given a number of factors, such as the strength of
the EML cap, the influence of the mid-level cloud shield, and the
displacement of the main jet max north of the surface front. While
earlier CAM runs were strongly suggesting that discrete cells
would form in the rich airmass of northern Iowa, there have been
signals in the HRRR that the focus for convection may actually be
in western Wisconsin and far southeast Minnesota, closer to the
upper jet. Nevertheless, forecast soundings in northern Iowa still
depict profiles with low inhibition by 00-02Z, so this area still
bears close watching given its explosive potential.

Very large hail will be a threat with any discrete cells early on
given the high NCAPE values, morphing into a damaging wind threat
as we head into the overnight hours. Localized flooding concerns
may exist with any periods of heavy rainfall or training storms
given the dry and somewhat impervious soils. The tornado potential
appears more conditional based on localized enhancements to the
near-surface wind field in far northeast Iowa and southwest
Wisconsin where winds may remain more backed to the south and SRH
values increase in the evening, but hodographs within the inflow
layer would support streamwise vorticity ingestion and possibly
torndogenesis.

The front sags southward through the overnight hours, taking the
convection southward with it. The threat for severe weather should
wane after 06Z and storms should exit the southern forecast area
by 12Z. With upper level forcing lifting out of the region, the
front should lay out and linger over central Iowa and Illinois
during the day on Friday, but any additional storms should stay
south of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

Look for mostly dry conditions into the weekend with increasing CAA
slowly but steadily driving temperatures downward. Highs by Saturday
fall into the upper 70s to low 80s with surface high pressure firmly
in control. The next upstream wave descends into the northern CONUS
on Sunday, lifting the near surface baroclinic zone back northward
and bringing with it the threat for rain/storms during the day. A
shot of colder Canadian air arrives for the first half of the week,
a welcome change from the record hot start we have had to the month
of June.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

Thunderstorms will continue to be in the vicinity of the
KRST/KLSE sites until the front moves through the area later
tonight; 04-06Z. Some of the storms may be strong to severe with
large hail and damaging winds. The storms are initially isolated,
but as the low level jet increases should consolidate and drop
southeast of the area. Due to the isolated nature will metwatch as
needed to include any of the higher end winds and mention of
hail.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Skow
LONG TERM...Skow
AVIATION...Zapotocny

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
123 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-181200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
123 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for parts of southeast
Minnesota...central Wisconsin...southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and last
through much of the evening. Some storms will become severe with a
risk for large hail, damaging wind, frequent lightning and bouts
of heavy rain. A tornado or two is also possible with stronger
storms.

While there could be a few storms this afternoon, most of the
stronger storms are expected to impact areas between 5pm and
Midnight. The higher risk for severe weather will be south of
Interstate 94.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorm chances move in again by Sunday. At this time, it is
too early to determine any severe potential with these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed at times later this
afternoon and evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

Ensure dispatch centers and spotter groups are prepped for severe
weather potential. A webinar was already held at 1pm Thursday.

Shea

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1015 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1014 PM     HAIL             MINNESOTA CITY          44.09N 91.75W
06/17/2021  E1.00 INCH       WINONA             MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1023 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1022 PM     HAIL             GOODVIEW                44.07N 91.71W
06/17/2021  M1.75 INCH       WINONA             MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1035 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 PM     HAIL             GOODVIEW                44.07N 91.71W
06/17/2021  E2.75 INCH       WINONA             MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

1030 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BUFFALO                 44.22N 91.87W
06/17/2021  M1.99 INCH       BUFFALO            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1041 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW GALESVILLE        44.07N 91.39W
06/17/2021  E60 MPH          TREMPEALEAU        WI   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1042 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     HAIL             2 W CENTERVILLE         44.07N 91.49W
06/17/2021  E2.00 INCH       TREMPEALEAU        WI   PUBLIC

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1043 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 PM     HAIL             3 S WINONA              44.00N 91.66W
06/17/2021  M1.00 INCH       WINONA             MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SHEA