Areal Flood Advisory 1, NWS La Crosse, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
656 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

The threat for impactful severe weather remains on tap for much
of the forecast area late this afternoon into the overnight hours.

As of 19Z, a poorly defined cold front stretched from Polk and
St. Croix counties southwestward through the southern Twin Cities
metro to south of Sioux Falls. Ahead of this baroclinic zone, a
narrow corridor of rich theta-e air exists with surface dewpoints
in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees and temperatures pushing 90+
degrees. Mid-level convection associated with the leading edge of
an upper level impulse/jet streak have been progressing into
central Minnesota and spreading cloud debris and high-based
thundershowers/virga eastward across the forecast area. There is
some uncertainty as to how this complex will affect the threat for
surface-based convection later this afternoon. However, given the
the bulk of the daytime heating haven taken place and continued
southwesterly low-level theta-e advection continuing through the
afternoon just ahead of the boundary, minimal modification of the
near-surface airmass is expected.

Impressive mid-level lapse rates coupled with the rich lower
tropospheric theta-e ribbon will yield 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE at
peak heating just ahead of the boundary. Increasing H700-500 wind
speeds ahead of the approaching upper level jet will yield 30-50
kts of effective shear in the column, plus with shear vectors
oriented nearly orthogonal to the frontal slope, the initial
storms should have an appreciable off-boundary motion which would
promote discrete convection early on, but upscale growth into a
multi-cell or linear complex is expected as we head into the
evening hours.

The locations impacted by convection for this event is still a
bit nebulous given a number of factors, such as the strength of
the EML cap, the influence of the mid-level cloud shield, and the
displacement of the main jet max north of the surface front. While
earlier CAM runs were strongly suggesting that discrete cells
would form in the rich airmass of northern Iowa, there have been
signals in the HRRR that the focus for convection may actually be
in western Wisconsin and far southeast Minnesota, closer to the
upper jet. Nevertheless, forecast soundings in northern Iowa still
depict profiles with low inhibition by 00-02Z, so this area still
bears close watching given its explosive potential.

Very large hail will be a threat with any discrete cells early on
given the high NCAPE values, morphing into a damaging wind threat
as we head into the overnight hours. Localized flooding concerns
may exist with any periods of heavy rainfall or training storms
given the dry and somewhat impervious soils. The tornado potential
appears more conditional based on localized enhancements to the
near-surface wind field in far northeast Iowa and southwest
Wisconsin where winds may remain more backed to the south and SRH
values increase in the evening, but hodographs within the inflow
layer would support streamwise vorticity ingestion and possibly
torndogenesis.

The front sags southward through the overnight hours, taking the
convection southward with it. The threat for severe weather should
wane after 06Z and storms should exit the southern forecast area
by 12Z. With upper level forcing lifting out of the region, the
front should lay out and linger over central Iowa and Illinois
during the day on Friday, but any additional storms should stay
south of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

Look for mostly dry conditions into the weekend with increasing CAA
slowly but steadily driving temperatures downward. Highs by Saturday
fall into the upper 70s to low 80s with surface high pressure firmly
in control. The next upstream wave descends into the northern CONUS
on Sunday, lifting the near surface baroclinic zone back northward
and bringing with it the threat for rain/storms during the day. A
shot of colder Canadian air arrives for the first half of the week,
a welcome change from the record hot start we have had to the month
of June.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

Thunderstorms will continue to be in the vicinity of the
KRST/KLSE sites until the front moves through the area later
tonight; 04-06Z. Some of the storms may be strong to severe with
large hail and damaging winds. The storms are initially isolated,
but as the low level jet increases should consolidate and drop
southeast of the area. Due to the isolated nature will metwatch as
needed to include any of the higher end winds and mention of
hail.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Skow
LONG TERM...Skow
AVIATION...Zapotocny

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
123 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061-181200-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-
Clayton-Wabasha-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-
Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-Monroe-Juneau-
Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-
123 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for parts of southeast
Minnesota...central Wisconsin...southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and last
through much of the evening. Some storms will become severe with a
risk for large hail, damaging wind, frequent lightning and bouts
of heavy rain. A tornado or two is also possible with stronger
storms.

While there could be a few storms this afternoon, most of the
stronger storms are expected to impact areas between 5pm and
Midnight. The higher risk for severe weather will be south of
Interstate 94.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorm chances move in again by Sunday. At this time, it is
too early to determine any severe potential with these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed at times later this
afternoon and evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

Ensure dispatch centers and spotter groups are prepped for severe
weather potential. A webinar was already held at 1pm Thursday.

Shea

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1106 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     HAIL             2 SSE HOLMEN            43.93N 91.24W
06/17/2021  E0.75 INCH       LA CROSSE          WI   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

SHEA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1110 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 N LA CROSSE           43.87N 91.25W
06/17/2021  M47 MPH          LA CROSSE          WI   ASOS

&&

SHEA