Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
647 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, a round of showers and tstms associated with an
upper level storm system will continue moving southward across
the area this evening, and will impact the terminal sites. MVFR
cigs are expected to redevelop at KAMA towards sunrise Monday and
persist until late morning before eroding. Another round of more
isolated showers and tstms may develop late Monday afternoon. Have
decided not to include this element in this fcst cycle due to low
confidence on location and timing.

02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 146 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021/

SHORT TERM...
Cluster of thunderstorms in the southeast Texas Panhandle should
exit the area by late this afternoon.  These storms have aided by a
short wave trough moving southeast into western Oklahoma.

The main area of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
near the Raton Mesa and off the mountains of southern Colorado and
northern New Mexico.  These storms will be moving into an
environment of increasing instability and shear as interact with a
short wave trough moving through western Kansas.  These storms may
be discrete at first and some may be supercells across the
northwest CWA, before they form into a line later this evening and
move southeast through the rest of the Panhandles.  Large hail and
damaging winds will be the main threats from these storms. A
landspout tornado can not be ruled out.  Heavy rain from these
storms may also cause localized areas of flooding.

Thunderstorms will again be possible on Monday, mainly across the
western areas.  The northerly flow aloft will tend to mitigate the
eastward progression of any mountain convection.  There are a couple
of minor short wave troughs moving through the flow that may also
tough off a few showers and storms.

Highs on Monday will still remain below normal with readings mainly
in the 80's.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
An upper high will continue to spin over the Great Basin Region
with northwesterly flow aloft for the Panhandles. By Wednesday
night into Thursday, the high shifts slightly east towards the
Four Corners and puts the Panhandles in northeasterly flow aloft
for a brief period. By Friday the high heads back towards the
Great Basin Region as a trough digs down into the Upper Midwest
with northwesterly flow returning aloft through the weekend. With
embedded shortwaves and south southeasterly winds at the surface
continuing to provide 60s dewpoints, precipitation chances
continue Tuesday and Wednesday, then halt Thursday before
returning again through the weekend.

The best chance for severe weather will be on Tuesday with the
greatest instability present and a more defined shortwave to
potentially ramp up storms later through the evening. MLCAPE
values are around 1000-2000 J/kg with 0-6 km effective bulk shear
around 20-25 knots so large hail and damaging wind gusts are
possible. As the evening goes on, there is a potential for storms
to become more linear with a surface trough. By Wednesday, the
instability parameters do not look as good and the chance for
severe storms becomes less likely. However, strong thunderstorms
are still a possibility with another surface trough to help
enhance storm development. Thursday will remain dry before
precipitation chances return for the weekend. A weak frontal
passage late Friday night may keep the precipitation chances
continuing into Saturday morning.

Temperatures will remain in the 80s Tuesday and Wednesday before
warming a bit into the lower 90s Thursday and Friday. Breezy
southwest winds are possible Friday with daytime mixing of 25-30
knot 850mb winds extending across the Panhandles. North winds will
follow behind the weak front late Friday night and this will keep
temperatures from warming above the upper 80s to lower 90s into
the weekend.

Rutt

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
353 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-051100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
353 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles
this afternoon and tonight. Some storms may become severe with
large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for all of the Oklahoma Panhandle
and most of the Texas Panhandle until 11 PM CDT this evening.
Heavy rain may also lead to localized flooding or flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms remain possible Monday through Wednesday and again
Friday night into Saturday across much of the Panhandles. A
severe storm cannot be ruled out on Tuesday. Storms could be
capable of heavy rain leading to localized flooding or flash
flooding Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely through tonight.

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