Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
146 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021

.SHORT TERM...
Cluster of thunderstorms in the southeast Texas Panhandle should
exit the area by late this afternoon.  These storms have aided by a
short wave trough moving southeast into western Oklahoma.

The main area of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
near the Raton Mesa and off the mountains of southern Colorado and
northern New Mexico.  These storms will be moving into an
environment of increasing instability and shear as interact with a
short wave trough moving through western Kansas.  These storms may
be discrete at first and some may be supercells across the
northwest CWA, before they form into a line later this evening and
move southeast through the rest of the Panhandles.  Large hail and
damaging winds will be the main threats from these storms. A
landspout tornado can not be ruled out.  Heavy rain from these
storms may also cause localized areas of flooding.

Thunderstorms will again be possible on Monday, mainly across the
western areas.  The northerly flow aloft will tend to mitigate the
eastward progression of any mountain convection.  There are a couple
of minor short wave troughs moving through the flow that may also
tough off a few showers and storms.

Highs on Monday will still remain below normal with readings mainly
in the 80's.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
An upper high will continue to spin over the Great Basin Region
with northwesterly flow aloft for the Panhandles. By Wednesday
night into Thursday, the high shifts slightly east towards the
Four Corners and puts the Panhandles in northeasterly flow aloft
for a brief period. By Friday the high heads back towards the
Great Basin Region as a trough digs down into the Upper Midwest
with northwesterly flow returning aloft through the weekend. With
embedded shortwaves and south southeasterly winds at the surface
continuing to provide 60s dewpoints, precipitation chances
continue Tuesday and Wednesday, then halt Thursday before
returning again through the weekend.

The best chance for severe weather will be on Tuesday with the
greatest instability present and a more defined shortwave to
potentially ramp up storms later through the evening. MLCAPE
values are around 1000-2000 J/kg with 0-6 km effective bulk shear
around 20-25 knots so large hail and damaging wind gusts are
possible. As the evening goes on, there is a potential for storms
to become more linear with a surface trough. By Wednesday, the
instability parameters do not look as good and the chance for
severe storms becomes less likely. However, strong thunderstorms
are still a possibility with another surface trough to help
enhance storm development. Thursday will remain dry before
precipitation chances return for the weekend. A weak frontal
passage late Friday night may keep the precipitation chances
continuing into Saturday morning.

Temperatures will remain in the 80s Tuesday and Wednesday before
warming a bit into the lower 90s Thursday and Friday. Breezy
southwest winds are possible Friday with daytime mixing of 25-30
knot 850mb winds extending across the Panhandles. North winds will
follow behind the weak front late Friday night and this will keep
temperatures from warming above the upper 80s to lower 90s into
the weekend.

Rutt

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                66  82  66  83  66 /  60  40  30  30  50
Beaver OK                  66  87  67  88  66 /  50  10   5  10  50
Boise City OK              61  85  63  84  61 /  40  20  20  50  70
Borger TX                  69  87  70  88  69 /  70  30  20  20  50
Boys Ranch TX              66  87  67  87  67 /  60  40  30  30  60
Canyon TX                  66  82  66  82  65 /  60  50  30  30  50
Clarendon TX               67  82  67  83  67 /  60  50  20  20  30
Dalhart TX                 62  85  63  83  62 /  60  30  20  40  70
Guymon OK                  64  87  66  88  65 /  60  20  10  30  60
Hereford TX                66  86  66  85  65 /  80  50  40  40  60
Lipscomb TX                67  85  67  87  67 /  50  40   5  10  30
Pampa TX                   66  83  67  84  66 /  70  40  20  20  40
Shamrock TX                68  83  67  85  67 /  40  50  10  10  20
Wellington TX              68  84  68  86  68 /  40  50  20  10  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

15/23

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1142 AM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021

TXZ009-014-041730-
Gray TX-Roberts TX-
1142 AM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN GRAY AND ROBERTS
COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

At 1141 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Codman, or 9 miles northeast of Pampa, moving south at
15 mph. Another strong storm was 15 miles north of Miami, moving
south at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pampa, Miami, Codman and Lora.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3544 10101 3591 10103 3606 10057 3606 10054
      3546 10054
TIME...MOT...LOC 1641Z 352DEG 13KT 3567 10088

LG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1234 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021

TXZ014-015-019-041815-
Gray TX-Wheeler TX-Donley TX-
1234 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL WHEELER...GRAY AND
NORTH CENTRAL DONLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

At 1234 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Lefors, or 11 miles south of Pampa, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mclean, Lefors, Lake Mcclellan, Alanreed and Kellerville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3539 10109 3542 10109 3553 10088 3535 10044
      3502 10089
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 304DEG 16KT 3539 10092

LG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
242 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021

OKZ001-TXZ001-002-042030-
Cimarron OK-Sherman TX-Dallam TX-
242 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CIMARRON...WESTERN
SHERMAN AND NORTHEASTERN DALLAM COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 242 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southwest of Griggs, or 12 miles northwest of Stratford, moving
east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stratford, Conlen and Texhoma.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3652 10203 3650 10203 3650 10192 3648 10174
      3610 10198 3630 10248 3655 10233
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 275DEG 11KT 3646 10225

LG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
313 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021

TXZ001-002-042045-
Sherman TX-Dallam TX-
313 PM CDT Sun Jul 4 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SHERMAN AND EASTERN
DALLAM COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 313 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Conlen, or 12 miles west of Stratford, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stratford and Conlen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 10253 3650 10212 3606 10184 3606 10243
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 327DEG 13KT 3637 10229

LG