Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
708 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, deteriorating weather conditions are expected at
the terminal sites later tonight and Wednesday morning with rain,
snow, strong winds, low cigs and low vsbys due to an eastward
movg upper level storm system. The combination of falling snow and
strong winds will result in areas of blowing snow and possible
near whiteout conditions at times, especially Wednesday morning.
Rapidly improving weather from west to east is forecast Wednesday
afternoon.

02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 518 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021/

SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday.
Most of the active weather will occur tonight and Wednesday. A
vigorous closed upper level low pressure system will move across
central NM this evening, then across the southen TX Panhandle late
tonight and Wednesday morning and will bring a variety of weather
to the region. Short range models are in agreement on the track an
speed of this storm system and were accepted based on latest water
vapor imagery.

For this evening, thunderstorms are possible across northern and
eastern sections. The potential is there for some storms to become
strong to severe across mainly the eastern half of the fcst area,
with large hail, damaging winds, localized flooding, and isolated
tornadoes all possible. Thunderstorm development will be tied to
passage of a cold front, with the most likely time period between
8 PM and 2 AM.

Colder air will then invade the region late tonight and Wednesday.
This will set the stage for wintry precipitation to develop across
most of the OK and TX Panhandles starting late tonight across the
northwest sections, spreadiing southeast to encompass most of the
area Wednesday morning. A mix of rain and snow will eventually
change to all snow from the northwest late tonight and Wednesday
morning. Very strong winds on the order of 30 to 40 mph with gusts
of 55 to 60 mph are expected due to a very tight pressure
gradient. These winds, coupled with falling snow, will likely
result in near whiteout or whiteout conditions. After extensive
coordination with surrounding ofices, have upgraded the Winter
Storm Watch to a Blizzard Warning for most of the area for late
tonight and Wednesday. Outside the Blizzard Warning in the far
eastern and southeastern TX Panhandle where little to no snow is
expected, we have issued a High Wind Watch for Wednesday. Total
snowfall accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are expected, with highest
totals in northern sections. Will comment that most short range
models suggest higher snowfall accumulations associated with a
well defined band of snow that is forecast to move across the area
late tonight and Wednesday. This will be something to monitor
closely as the event unfolds. It is possible amounts may need to
be adjusted upward in places where the heavier band of snow
affects. Rapid improvement from west to east is foreseen Wednesday
afternoon. Utilized NBM pops and CONSMOS winds tonight and
Wednesday.

02

LONG TERM...Tomorrow night through Monday...

In the wake of the departing low pressure system by tomorrow
night, skies will clear out with H500 northwesterly flow returning
to the Panhandles. Dry conditions should be prevolent through
most of the long term forecast period. A low amplitude ridge will
traverse the southern Rockies into the southern Plains going into
the weekend. H500 winds will then shift to southwesterly flow
Sunday and Monday ahead of our next weather system.

With the exception of diurnally driven winds, dry conditions will
continue through Sunday. Temperatures will moderate from below
average Thursday and Friday to at or above average from Saturday
through Monday. Latest 16/12Z model and numerical guidance
towards the very end of the long term forecast period hints at
some additional precipitation moving into the Panhandles
associated with our next H500 trough. Will watch and update
accordingly as we get closer to the start of next week.

Meccariello

FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Thursday.
Critical fire weather conditions are expected through early this
evening across the southwest Texas Panhandle due to twenty foot
southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 40 mph along
with minimum relative humidity values around 9 percent and RFTI
values of 4 to 6. Elevated fire weather conditions are also
expected to continue through early this evening across western
sections of Potter and Randall counties where less rain fell this
past weekend. Neither elevated nor critical fire weather
conditions are anticipated Wednesday and Thursday due to expected
precipitation later tonight and Wednesday.

02

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Blizzard Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for the
     following zones: Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Gray...
     Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...
     Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...
     Roberts...Sherman.

     High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
     for the following zones: Armstrong...Collingsworth...
     Donley...Hemphill...Wheeler.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Deaf Smith...Oldham.

OK...Blizzard Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for the
     following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

&&

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