Special Weather Statement, NWS Amarillo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
708 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, deteriorating weather conditions are expected at
the terminal sites later tonight and Wednesday morning with rain,
snow, strong winds, low cigs and low vsbys due to an eastward
movg upper level storm system. The combination of falling snow and
strong winds will result in areas of blowing snow and possible
near whiteout conditions at times, especially Wednesday morning.
Rapidly improving weather from west to east is forecast Wednesday
afternoon.

02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 518 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021/

SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday.
Most of the active weather will occur tonight and Wednesday. A
vigorous closed upper level low pressure system will move across
central NM this evening, then across the southen TX Panhandle late
tonight and Wednesday morning and will bring a variety of weather
to the region. Short range models are in agreement on the track an
speed of this storm system and were accepted based on latest water
vapor imagery.

For this evening, thunderstorms are possible across northern and
eastern sections. The potential is there for some storms to become
strong to severe across mainly the eastern half of the fcst area,
with large hail, damaging winds, localized flooding, and isolated
tornadoes all possible. Thunderstorm development will be tied to
passage of a cold front, with the most likely time period between
8 PM and 2 AM.

Colder air will then invade the region late tonight and Wednesday.
This will set the stage for wintry precipitation to develop across
most of the OK and TX Panhandles starting late tonight across the
northwest sections, spreadiing southeast to encompass most of the
area Wednesday morning. A mix of rain and snow will eventually
change to all snow from the northwest late tonight and Wednesday
morning. Very strong winds on the order of 30 to 40 mph with gusts
of 55 to 60 mph are expected due to a very tight pressure
gradient. These winds, coupled with falling snow, will likely
result in near whiteout or whiteout conditions. After extensive
coordination with surrounding ofices, have upgraded the Winter
Storm Watch to a Blizzard Warning for most of the area for late
tonight and Wednesday. Outside the Blizzard Warning in the far
eastern and southeastern TX Panhandle where little to no snow is
expected, we have issued a High Wind Watch for Wednesday. Total
snowfall accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are expected, with highest
totals in northern sections. Will comment that most short range
models suggest higher snowfall accumulations associated with a
well defined band of snow that is forecast to move across the area
late tonight and Wednesday. This will be something to monitor
closely as the event unfolds. It is possible amounts may need to
be adjusted upward in places where the heavier band of snow
affects. Rapid improvement from west to east is foreseen Wednesday
afternoon. Utilized NBM pops and CONSMOS winds tonight and
Wednesday.

02

LONG TERM...Tomorrow night through Monday...

In the wake of the departing low pressure system by tomorrow
night, skies will clear out with H500 northwesterly flow returning
to the Panhandles. Dry conditions should be prevolent through
most of the long term forecast period. A low amplitude ridge will
traverse the southern Rockies into the southern Plains going into
the weekend. H500 winds will then shift to southwesterly flow
Sunday and Monday ahead of our next weather system.

With the exception of diurnally driven winds, dry conditions will
continue through Sunday. Temperatures will moderate from below
average Thursday and Friday to at or above average from Saturday
through Monday. Latest 16/12Z model and numerical guidance
towards the very end of the long term forecast period hints at
some additional precipitation moving into the Panhandles
associated with our next H500 trough. Will watch and update
accordingly as we get closer to the start of next week.

Meccariello

FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Thursday.
Critical fire weather conditions are expected through early this
evening across the southwest Texas Panhandle due to twenty foot
southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 40 mph along
with minimum relative humidity values around 9 percent and RFTI
values of 4 to 6. Elevated fire weather conditions are also
expected to continue through early this evening across western
sections of Potter and Randall counties where less rain fell this
past weekend. Neither elevated nor critical fire weather
conditions are anticipated Wednesday and Thursday due to expected
precipitation later tonight and Wednesday.

02

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Blizzard Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for the
     following zones: Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Gray...
     Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...
     Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...
     Roberts...Sherman.

     High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening
     for the following zones: Armstrong...Collingsworth...
     Donley...Hemphill...Wheeler.

     Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for the following
     zones: Deaf Smith...Oldham.

OK...Blizzard Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for the
     following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
455 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-171100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
455 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected through early this
evening across the southwest Texas Panhandle due to southwest
winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 40 mph along with
minimum relative humidity values around 9 percent. A Red Flag
Warning remains in effect for this area until 8 PM.

Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected to continue
through early this evening across western sections of Potter and
Randall counties where less rain fell this past weekend.

Thunderstorms will be possible tonight across the Oklahoma
Panhandle as well as northern and eastern sections of the Texas
Panhandle. A few storms will have the potential to become strong
to severe across the eastern half of the area, with large hail,
damaging winds, and localized flooding the primary hazards.
In addition, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Late tonight, blizzard conditions will develop across the
northwestern one third of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. A
Blizzard Warning is in effect beginning at 1 AM Wednesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Blizzard conditions are expected Wednesday across the Oklahoma
Panhandle and the northwestern two thirds of the Texas Panhandle.
Total snowfall accumulations of 1 to 4 inches along with north
winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph are anticipated. A
Blizzard Warning is in effect for this area until 6 PM Wednesday.
In addition, a High Wind Watch is in effect Wednesday for parts of
the eastern and southeastern Texas Panhandle due to the strong
north winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Trained spotters and cooperative observers are highly encouraged
to provide snow and visibility reports late tonight and Wednesday.

Area fire managers and emergency officials should be alert for
elevated or critical fire weather conditions across the southwest
Texas Panhandle through early this evening.

02

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
554 PM CDT TUE MAR 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     TORNADO          4 SW CLARENDON          34.89N 100.93W
03/13/2021                   DONLEY             TX   NWS STORM SURVEY

            CORRECTED FOR TIME ADJUSTED TO CDT. THE
            TORNADO BEGAN AT 5:42 PM CST. THIS TORNADO
            HAD A MAXIMUM PATH OF 1200 YARDS, A PATH
            LENGTH OF 13.2 MILES, AND WAS RATED EF2 WITH
            AN ESTIMATED PEAK WIND SPEED OF 120 MPH. THE
            TORNADO LIFTED AT 6:12 PM CST APPROXIMATELY
            3 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF HOWARDWICK. MINOR
            DAMAGE TO HOMES AND A LOCAL COLLEGE
            OCCURRED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED
            TO MOBILE HOMES, RECREATIONAL VEHICLES, AND
            BOATING FACILITIES. SEVERAL POWER POLES OF
            VARYING SIZES WERE DOWNED AND MANY TREES
            SNAPPED IN THE AREA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
629 PM CDT TUE MAR 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     TORNADO          1 W CLARENDON           34.93N 100.90W
03/13/2021                   DONLEY             TX   NWS STORM SURVEY

            CORRECTED FOR TIME ADJUSTED TO CDT. THE
            TORNADO BEGAN AT 5:51 PM CST. THIS TORNADO
            HAD A MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH OF 40 YARDS, A PATH
            LENGTH OF 0.6 MILE, AND WAS RATED EF0 WITH
            AN ESTIMATED PEAK WIND SPEED OF 80 MPH. THE
            TORNADO LIFTED AT 5:52 PM CST APPROXIMATELY
            1 MILE NORTHWEST OF CLARENDON. DAMAGE TO
            SEVERAL HOMES, TREES, AND SHEDS OCCURRED. NO
            FATALITIES OR INJURIES WERE REPORTED.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
801 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

TXZ020-170145-
Collingsworth TX-
801 PM CDT Tue Mar 16 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY
UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 800 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wellington, moving north at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wellington, Samnorwood and Lutie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take shelter in a sturdy building if threatening weather approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3475 10015 3475 10035 3518 10027 3516 10000
      3498 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 201DEG 34KT 3485 10022

TLH