Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
746 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.UPDATE...
Quasi-stationary frontal boundary with a tight
baroclinic/instability zone was draped west-east near or just
south of I90 corridor. Per SPC mesoscale window and LAPS
analysis, SBCAPES were still over 3k J/Kg across the mid-Hudson
Valley and meanwhile across the Dacks and Lake George those
values were near zero. While the sun is setting, given the
instability gradient we will continue these showers/storms. Of
more concern is the lines of convection across PA and southwest
NY which, per HRRR/RAP soundings, should become more elevated.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms along a stalled front
will continue into tonight as a warm front lifts northward. A more
widespread, soaking rainfall event associated with Tropical Storm
Elsa is expected Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will average out
to cooler than normal levels Thursday and Friday due to limited
sunshine. Temperatures will moderate back to near normal levels over
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 344 in effect until 11 pm this
evening for areas from Schoharie County across the southern part
of the Capital District to northern Berkshire County, MA and
points south.

Heat Advisory for the Mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics and
southern Litchfield County, CT until 7 pm EDT today.

Thunderstorms continue just south of thermal boundary across
Capital District eastward to southern Vermont and south to
eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and Berkshires.
Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
this afternoon across southern part of forecast area. Storms
should move from wnw to ese at 30-40 mph. PWATs are not
astronomical but above normal in the 1.25-1.75" range. Thus,
thunderstorms will be capable of some brief heavy downpours.

Much cooler to north this afternoon with temperatures in the
60s and 70s but hot to the south with temperatures in the 80s to
around 90. Heat index at KPOU is currently 97F.

Based on CAMs, stronger storms should diminish after sunset and
generally be southeast of the Albany forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Later Tonight...some fog will again develop where rain occurred
this afternoon. Temperatures will cool off fairly well over
northern areas as skies will be at least partly clear and drier
air is in place. Temps should drop into to 50s there. Over the
southern half of the area, a muggy night is expected with lows
in the 60s to near 70F.

Thu-Thu night...Around daybreak, warm advection begins over the
stalled boundary laying across our area. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible due to isentropic lift and some
elevated instability indicated by negative showalter indices.
SPC has a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday.
Moderate to heavy rainfall is possible during the day as PWATs
rise to around 2 inches. We phrased the forecast grid wording
as moderate rain with a chance of thunderstorms.

Confidence is increasing for a moderate to heavy rain event
with 1.5-3" and perhaps some locally higher amounts for period
from Thursday morning through around mid day Friday. Previously
mentioned warm advection will bring rain thursday, while what
remains of Tropical Storm Elsa will bring additional rain
Thursday night and Friday.

WPC has a SLIGHT over the entire area in the ERO Day 2 and a
marginal risk over eastern areas day 3. NERFC river forecasts
show no river flooding at this time with some urban, low lying
and poor drainage flooding possible. Highs on THU will be in
the 60s to mid 70s from the Capital District north and mainly
mid 70s to lower 80s to the south. Muggy conditions will persist
THU night with lows generally in the 60s for lows.

Fri...Large-scale mid and upper level trough axis moves across
the region. However, as TC Elsa move across or near eastern New
England into the Gulf of Maine some mid and upper level
deformation showers or periods of lighter rain will continue.
Some dwindling or diminishing of the showers is expected by the
mid to late pm from west to east. Highs will be in the low to
mid 80s in the lower elevations and mid 60s to mid 70s over the
hills and mtns.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The period starts out on Saturday with weak surface high pressure in
place, although there looks to be a broad upper level trough aloft.
So cannot completely rule out an isolated/brief shower Saturday
afternoon/early evening during peak heating. While not overly cool,
temperatures expected to be slightly below normal under the
influence of the upper trough.

On Sunday, upper level heights will start to build, with a ridge
nudging westward towards the east coast near the Carolinas. At the
surface, a warm front will be gradually lifting northward across our
region. Some timing differences in the guidance, with the GFS
bringing the front northward faster than the ECMWF. So will have to
mention chance POPs during this time. With increasing low level
moisture, will mention chance thunder south of Albany.

On Monday, upper level heights continue to rise, but there is low
confidence in the placement of both the upper level ridge center as
and a closed upper low over the Midwest region. A southwest flow
regime will result in warming temperatures although there degrees of
cloud cover is uncertain. Also, the warm front may stall somewhere
near our region on Monday. Will maintain chance POPs again, with
best chance for thunder south of Albany based on NBM probs.

A humid air mass will remain in place Tuesday into Wednesday, as the
upper low over the Midwest opens up and weakens as it tracks NE and
over the top of the ridge. Still, it could pass through at least
part of the area as an open short wave which again could result in
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Best chances by
Wednesday look to be for areas north/west of Albany with the passage
of the short wave.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Despite convection near the I90 corridor, flight conditions are
near VFR across the TAF sites. However, flight conditions should
diminish to MVFR with an increase potential for convection and
evolving stratus overnight. As upstream convection arrives, a
period of low end MVFR to IFR conditions are expected as we will
time this out with TEMPO groups at this time.

This line(s) of convection transverse northward on Thursday then
additional convection with MVFR conditions are expected.

Winds outside of convection, should be rather light and variable
overnight and light southerly during Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon along
a stalled front will come to an end tonight. A more widespread,
soaking rainfall event associated with Tropical Storm Elsa is
expected Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will average out to
cooler than normal levels Thursday and Friday due to limited solar
radiation and rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Elsa.
Temperatures will moderate back to near normal levels over the
weekend.

Relative humidity (RH) values will max out tonight between 85-100%.
Thursday minimum relative humidity values will range between 65-95%.
Thursday night, relative humidity values are expected to max out
between 95-100%. On Friday, minimum relative humidity values will be
between 60-85% with the highest values over southern VT and
Litchfield County, CT. Friday night, relative humidity values are
expected to max out between 95-100%.

Tonight, winds will become light and variable at less than 5 kts. On
Thursday, winds will develop out of the southeast between 5-10 kts.
Thursday night, winds will remain out of the south between 5-10 kts.
On Friday, southerly winds will become northwesterly between 5-10
kts. Friday night, northwest winds will be light at less than 5 kts.

A widespread soaking rainfall will occur Thursday into Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Ponding of water on roadways and some poor drainage issues may
occur through tonight with any thunderstorms.

Rain is expected to be more widespread, and at times heavy, Thursday
into Friday morning, as an approaching upper level disturbance
interacts with tropical moisture. Urban and poor drainage flooding
along with isolated flash flooding will be possible. According to
MMEFS data, main stem river flooding is unlikely at this time, but
this will continue to be monitored over the next few days.

Total rainfall through Friday will be between 1.5-3 inches across
the hydro service area.

Flows will begin to recede heading into the weekend with some drier
weather returning.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...SND/Evbuoma/BGM
NEAR TERM...SND/Evbuoma/BGM
SHORT TERM...SND/Evbuoma
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Frugis/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...Evbuoma
HYDROLOGY...Evbuoma

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
258 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

CTZ013-NYZ059-060-064>066-081100-
Southern Litchfield-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Ulster-
Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
258 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut and
the mid Hudson Valley.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Localized heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding
and isolated to scattered flash flooding is possible Thursday into
Friday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions to the National Weather Service in Albany New York.

CTZ001-MAZ001-025-NYZ047-051>054-058-061-063-081100-
Northern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-Southern Berkshire-Schoharie-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-
258 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 344 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest hills of
Connecticut, western Massachusetts, central Taconics, Schoharie
Valley, eastern Catskills and the immediate Capital Region.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Localized heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding
and isolated to scattered flash flooding is possible Thursday into
Friday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions to the National Weather Service in Albany New York.

NYZ032-033-038>043-048>050-082>084-VTZ013>015-081100-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
258 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Mohawk Valley, Adirondacks,
Lake George Saratoga Region into southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening with a
marginal risk for severe weather across the Mohawk Valley, Saratoga
Region into southern Vermont.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Localized heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding
and isolated to scattered flash flooding is possible Thursday into
Friday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today into this evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
801 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

NYZ060-064>066-080045-
Eastern Dutchess-Western Columbia-Western Dutchess-Eastern Ulster-
801 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL ULSTER AND
NORTHWESTERN DUTCHESS COUNTIES...

At 800 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Red Hook, or
near Rhinebeck, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kingston, Saugerties, Rhinebeck, Pine Plains, Red Hook, Saugerties
South, Lake Katrine, Bethel, Milan, Tivoli, Mount Marion, Cokertown,
Kerleys Corners, Dutchess County Fairgrounds, Flatbush, Linden Acres,
Sawkill, Attlebury, Ulster Landing and Fraleighs.

This includes Interstate 87 near exit 19.

LAT...LON 4195 7405 4206 7405 4207 7393 4203 7369
      4200 7369 4199 7363 4188 7364
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 274DEG 21KT 4199 7393

JPV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
814 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

MAZ025-080045-
Southern Berkshire-
814 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY...

At 814 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Sandisfield, or
11 miles southeast of Great Barrington, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Otis, Sandisfield, New Marlborough, Monterey, South Sandisfield, Otis
Wood Lanes, Hartsville, Konkapot, New Boston, Algerie Four Corners,
Montville, Free Quarter, Roosterville, Hephzibah Heights, Southfield,
West New Boston, East Otis, Cold Spring and West Otis.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4215 7303 4215 7307 4212 7306 4211 7307
      4209 7307 4207 7306 4204 7305 4205 7325
      4218 7328 4225 7301
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 260DEG 20KT 4211 7316

JPV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
822 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

CTZ013-080045-
Southern Litchfield-
822 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...

At 821 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Burlington, or
near Bristol, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Terryville, Northwest Harwinton, Roraback Lodge and Pequabuck.

LAT...LON 4177 7307 4177 7301 4168 7299 4167 7299
      4167 7305
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 269DEG 20KT 4173 7299

JPV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
835 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

NYZ058-063-080115-
Western Ulster-Western Greene-
835 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL ULSTER AND
SOUTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTIES...

At 835 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Fleischmanns,
or 16 miles southwest of Hunter, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lanesville, Phoenicia, Shandaken, Allaben, Big Indian, Oliverea,
Seager, Pine Hill, Chichester, Bushnellsville and Woodland.

LAT...LON 4201 7449 4208 7457 4219 7435 4209 7419
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 241DEG 13KT 4207 7447

JPV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
837 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

NYZ060-064-065-080115-
Western Columbia-Western Dutchess-Eastern Ulster-
837 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ULSTER AND
SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES...

At 837 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Saugerties,
moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Saugerties, Clermont, Saugerties South, Veteran, Germantown, Tivoli,
Centerville, Mount Marion, Canoe Hill, Kerleys Corners, Katsbaan,
Burden, Nevis, Cheviot, High Woods, Glenerie, Fish Creek, Glasco,
Linlithgo and Malden-On-Hudson.

This includes Interstate 87 near exit 20.

LAT...LON 4203 7404 4209 7405 4214 7393 4213 7391
      4215 7390 4219 7381 4203 7376
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 254DEG 15KT 4207 7398

JPV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
839 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

CTZ001-080115-
Northern Litchfield-
839 PM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...

At 839 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Winsted, or 9
miles north of Torrington, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Torrington, New Hartford, Winsted, New Hartford Center, Barkhamsted,
Colebrook, Mooreville, Nepaug, North Colebrook, Riverton, Mill Brook,
Beech Rock, Robertsville, Goose Green, North Goshen, Pleasant Valley,
Puddle Town, Pine Meadow, Grantville and Burrville.

LAT...LON 4190 7291 4190 7294 4185 7295 4184 7294
      4181 7295 4189 7322 4204 7311 4204 7301
      4197 7303 4197 7289
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 297DEG 23KT 4197 7310

JPV