Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
345 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area this evening bringing snow
showers and snow squalls along with breezy conditions which may
result in localized blowing snow and hazardous travel
conditions. Saturday looks to be cold and blustery with a few
snow showers or flurries. Continued below normal temperatures
are forecast for Sunday with sunny skies and diminishing winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 345 PM EST, cold front is crossing the forecast area and
extends along a northeast to southwest line from the New York -
Vermont border to Hudson and then southwest on to just west of
Monticello. With a moist unstable atmosphere, the higher
terrain areas east and west of the Hudson Valley are seeing
some light to moderate upslope snow and snow showers associated
with the front and cold advection.

For late this afternoon, expecting continuing snow showers and
possible squalls along the cold front into the evening.
Temperatures have reached maxes for the day and will fall the
remainder of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Snow shower activity diminishes this evening as the cold front
moves east of the area. Lake effect snow shower activity
develops in the western Mohawk Valley while some upslope
snow in the southern Adirondacks, Rensselaer Plateau, southern
Green Mountains and Berkshires will gradually decrease. Partial
clearing outside of the snow shower activity. Northwest winds
are likely to be gusty through the night.

Colder and continued gusty winds with noticeable wind chills
Saturday. Saturday morning another cold front, the leading edge
of the cold pool, drops across the area from north to south with
clouds. There may be snow showers across most of the area with
this feature, but confidence was low enough that we kept POPs
out of all but the western part of the forecast area - mainly
the upslope areas. The afternoon should see clearing, but even
with the increasing sun and gusty winds, highs in the 20s but
near 30 mid Hudson Valley and teens in higher terrain. Winds
become more northwest, shifting any lake effect snow shower
activity into the Schoharie Valley and eastern Catskills.

Gusty winds continue Saturday night and with temperatures
falling into the single numbers to around 10 but below zero in
northern areas, wind chills will drop well below zero. Wind
chills in the southern Adirondacks will approach 25 below. Wind
chill advisories may be needed Saturday night for northern
Herkimer and Hamilton Counties. Higher elevations of northern
Warren County and the southern Green Mountains may also see
wind chills in the -20 to -25F range.

Sunny Sunday with perhaps some high clouds beginning to filter
into our region in the afternoon. Still breezy early with
northwest winds diminishing later and highs in the 20s to
around 30 but teens to near 20 higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Much of the long term period will feature below normal temperatures
and below normal precipitation.

The period starts out on Monday with a ridge extending SE into our
area from an area of high pressure over central Quebec. This will
result in continued cold/dry conditions, with a slight northerly
breeze. Dry conditions should prevail across most of the area
through Monday evening, with a continued light northerly flow.

Will start to mention chances for snow developing late Monday night
into Tuesday morning as isentropic lift increases ahead of an
eastward advancing cyclone moving into the Ohio Valley. At this
time, it looks like from around I-90 southward based on the latest
guidance which has come into better agreement. Will mention likely
pops for areas well south of Albany on Tuesday, which is when the
strongest isentropic lift looks to occur. The primary surface
cyclone is expected to weaken as it crosses the Appalachians, so at
this time only light accumulations are forecast. Again, best chance
should be for areas south of Albany.

In wake of this system, cold and dry conditions should then prevail
Tuesday night through Wednesday as our area will be under the
influence of strong surface ridging building southward from Canada.

Will have to watch a strong upper level trough moving eastward
through the southern Appalachians Thursday into Thursday night. This
system may spawn a significant cyclone near the SE coast. At this
time, all main sources of guidance keep any precip with this system
well south of our region. Should this system remain to our south,
it will continued cold/dry with northerly flow into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions in place right now except PSF where ceilings continue
to hover near 3kft. Scattered snow showers and possible snow squalls
continue to track down the Mohawk Valley and look to be in the
vicinity of TAF sites between 18 UTC and 23 UTC this afternoon.
Ceilings during any snow shower or squall could become MVFR with IFR
visibility. Should a stronger squall impact any of the sites, brief
IFR ceilings or LIFR visibility cannot be ruled out. A sharp wind
shift to the west - northwest is also expected during this time
period with wind gusts reaching up to 25-30kts possible.

After 00 UTC, snow showers and squalls should exit the region
resulting in improving visibility and ceilings back to VFR levels.
West-northwest winds will stay sustained around 10kts through the
night.

A secondary arctic front is expected tonight around 03-06 UTC
which may result in reduced MVFR ceilings. Some additional flurries
or snow showers are possible towards 09 - 12 UTC as well; however,
given the low confidence, we did not lower visibilities and only
show SCT ceilings and VCSH to indicate snow shower potential. Winds
during this period should also shift to the northwest (~330 degrees)
and stay sustained around 10kts. Wind gusts increase as peak heating
returns Saturday morning by 15 UTC with gusts to 15-25kts through
the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrological issues are expected during the next
week. A few periods of light snow and lake effect snow are
possible which will have little impact on the rivers.

Cold temperatures will persist through next week. Cold air will
support river and lake ice development.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Speciale
HYDROLOGY...SND

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
357 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ015-231200-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery-
Northern Saratoga-Northern Washington-Schoharie-
Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-
Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-
Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-
Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-
Southern Washington-Eastern Windham-
357 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwestern
Connecticut, western Massachusetts and eastern New York except for
the southern Adirondacks.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
Snow showers and some heavier snow squalls are possible into the
early evening hours. Rapid deterioration in visibility associated
with brief heavy snow and gusty winds will occur within any snow
squalls.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Weather spotters are encouraged to report winter precipitation
amounts to the National Weather Service in Albany New York, while
following local, state and CDC guidelines.

NYZ032-033-042-VTZ013-014-231200-
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Northern Warren-Bennington-
Western Windham-
357 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the southern Adirondacks in New
York, and the higher elevations of southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
Snow showers and some heavier snow squalls are possible into the
early evening hours. Rapid deterioration in visibility associated
with brief heavy snow and gusty winds will occur within any snow
squalls.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday
Wind chill values may fall into the minus 20 to 25F range on
Saturday night. If this looks more likely, wind chill advisories
will be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Weather spotters are encouraged to report winter precipitation
amounts to the National Weather Service in Albany New York, while
following local, state and CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
503 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     SNOW             LANDGROVE               43.29N  72.84W
01/22/2021  M4.2 INCH        BENNINGTON         VT   WEATHERNET6

            WEATHERNET6

0445 PM     SNOW             CHARLOTTEVILLE          42.52N  74.70W
01/22/2021  M1.0 INCH        SCHOHARIE          NY   WEATHERNET6

            WEATHERNET6

0456 PM     SNOW             BECKET                  42.26N  73.12W
01/22/2021  M1.5 INCH        BERKSHIRE          MA   WEATHERNET6

            WEATHERNET6

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY2100763
EVENT NUMBER ALY2100764
EVENT NUMBER ALY2100765

JPV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
528 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

MAZ025-222300-
Southern Berkshire-
528 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

...A BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWER WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY...

At 526 PM EST, a snow shower with a brief burst of moderate to heavy
snowfall was located near Sandisfield, or 7 miles east of Great
Barrington, moving east at 25 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Otis, Sandisfield, New Marlborough, Monterey, Tyringham, Otis Wood
Lanes, Hartsville, New Boston, Algerie Four Corners, Bonny Rigg
Corners, North Otis, Montville, Hephzibah Heights, Becket Center,
Southfield, West New Boston, West Becket, East Otis, Cold Spring and
West Otis.

Visibilities will drop quickly to a half to quarter of a mile in
this snow showers with some wind gusts around 20 mph.  A quick
dusting to half inch of snowfall is possible.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4215 7303 4215 7307 4212 7306 4211 7307
      4209 7307 4207 7327 4224 7334 4233 7306
      4231 7303 4231 7300 4225 7300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 254DEG 22KT 4218 7321

TAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
533 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

VTZ013>015-222315-
Eastern Windham-Western Windham-Bennington-
533 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

...A BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWER WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BENNINGTON AND
WINDHAM COUNTIES...

At 530 PM EST, a snow shower with a brief burst of moderate to heavy
snowfall was located near West Wardsboro, or near Stratton, moving
east at 25 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Brattleboro, Townshend, Stratton, Putney, Wilmington, Saxtons River,
Newfane, West Wardsboro, Rockingham, Dover, Marlboro, Jamaica,
Wardsboro, Grafton, Brookline, Athens, Searsburg, Somerset, Wardsboro
Center and Goose City.

Visibilities will drop quickly to a half to quarter of a mile in
this snow showers with some wind gusts around 20 mph.  A quick
dusting to inch of snowfall is possible especially over the higher
terrain.

Icy roads are possible as the snow melts on the roads
then quickly refreezes.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4297 7249 4296 7252 4295 7253 4294 7253
      4292 7252 4291 7253 4290 7253 4288 7255
      4286 7256 4282 7299 4311 7304 4321 7248
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 254DEG 22KT 4298 7290

TAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
544 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

MAZ025-NYZ060-061-064-065-222345-
Southern Berkshire-Eastern Columbia-Western Columbia-Western
Dutchess-Eastern Ulster-
544 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

...AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN BERKSHIRE...
NORTHWESTERN DUTCHESS AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES...

At 541 PM EST, an area of snow showers was located over Clermont, or
near Saugerties, moving east at 25 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Great Barrington, Saugerties, Livingston, Copake, Sheffield,
Clermont, Red Hook, Ancram, Saugerties South, Housatonic, Ashley
Falls, Germantown, Hillsdale, Taghkanic, Tivoli, Alford, Ancramdale,
Kerleys Corners, Quarryville and Katsbaan.

This includes Interstate 87 near exit 20.

Snowfall accumulations will range from a coating to a half an inch
over the higher terrain of the southern Taconics and Berkshires.

Slick roads are possible as the snow melts on the roads then quickly
refreezes.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4214 7400 4215 7395 4213 7391 4216 7389
      4227 7336 4206 7326 4205 7336 4205 7352
      4202 7352 4197 7392
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 254DEG 22KT 4210 7388

TAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
545 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     SNOW             SAVOY                   42.60N  73.04W
01/22/2021  M2.2 INCH        BERKSHIRE          MA   WEATHERNET6

            WEATHERNET6

0503 PM     SNOW             INDIAN LAKE             43.71N  74.24W
01/22/2021  M3.0 INCH        HAMILTON           NY   WEATHERNET6

            WEATHERNET6

&&

EVENT NUMBER ALY2100766
EVENT NUMBER ALY2100767

JPV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
638 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

CTZ001-MAZ025-NYZ066-230015-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Berkshire-Eastern Dutchess-
638 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

...AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN LITCHFIELD...SOUTH
CENTRAL BERKSHIRE AND NORTHEASTERN DUTCHESS COUNTIES...

At 636 PM EST, an area of snow showers was located near Amenia, or
15 miles east of Rhinebeck, moving east at 30 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Torrington, Amenia, Sharon, Norfolk, Canaan, Millerton, Sandisfield,
Falls Village, Winsted, Ashley Falls, Bethel, Salisbury, Colebrook,
Cornwall, Smithfield, South Norfolk, Sodom, South Canaan, Mooreville
and Konkapot.

Snowfall accumulations will range from a coating to an inch over the
higher terrain of the southern Taconics, Berkshires and northern
Litchfield Hills.

Icy roads are possible as the snow melts on the roads then quickly
refreezes.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4189 7372 4195 7371 4199 7359 4198 7353
      4201 7353 4214 7312 4188 7301 4177 7366
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 252DEG 26KT 4188 7361

TAW