Special Weather Statement, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
345 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area this evening bringing snow
showers and snow squalls along with breezy conditions which may
result in localized blowing snow and hazardous travel
conditions. Saturday looks to be cold and blustery with a few
snow showers or flurries. Continued below normal temperatures
are forecast for Sunday with sunny skies and diminishing winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 345 PM EST, cold front is crossing the forecast area and
extends along a northeast to southwest line from the New York -
Vermont border to Hudson and then southwest on to just west of
Monticello. With a moist unstable atmosphere, the higher
terrain areas east and west of the Hudson Valley are seeing
some light to moderate upslope snow and snow showers associated
with the front and cold advection.

For late this afternoon, expecting continuing snow showers and
possible squalls along the cold front into the evening.
Temperatures have reached maxes for the day and will fall the
remainder of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Snow shower activity diminishes this evening as the cold front
moves east of the area. Lake effect snow shower activity
develops in the western Mohawk Valley while some upslope
snow in the southern Adirondacks, Rensselaer Plateau, southern
Green Mountains and Berkshires will gradually decrease. Partial
clearing outside of the snow shower activity. Northwest winds
are likely to be gusty through the night.

Colder and continued gusty winds with noticeable wind chills
Saturday. Saturday morning another cold front, the leading edge
of the cold pool, drops across the area from north to south with
clouds. There may be snow showers across most of the area with
this feature, but confidence was low enough that we kept POPs
out of all but the western part of the forecast area - mainly
the upslope areas. The afternoon should see clearing, but even
with the increasing sun and gusty winds, highs in the 20s but
near 30 mid Hudson Valley and teens in higher terrain. Winds
become more northwest, shifting any lake effect snow shower
activity into the Schoharie Valley and eastern Catskills.

Gusty winds continue Saturday night and with temperatures
falling into the single numbers to around 10 but below zero in
northern areas, wind chills will drop well below zero. Wind
chills in the southern Adirondacks will approach 25 below. Wind
chill advisories may be needed Saturday night for northern
Herkimer and Hamilton Counties. Higher elevations of northern
Warren County and the southern Green Mountains may also see
wind chills in the -20 to -25F range.

Sunny Sunday with perhaps some high clouds beginning to filter
into our region in the afternoon. Still breezy early with
northwest winds diminishing later and highs in the 20s to
around 30 but teens to near 20 higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Much of the long term period will feature below normal temperatures
and below normal precipitation.

The period starts out on Monday with a ridge extending SE into our
area from an area of high pressure over central Quebec. This will
result in continued cold/dry conditions, with a slight northerly
breeze. Dry conditions should prevail across most of the area
through Monday evening, with a continued light northerly flow.

Will start to mention chances for snow developing late Monday night
into Tuesday morning as isentropic lift increases ahead of an
eastward advancing cyclone moving into the Ohio Valley. At this
time, it looks like from around I-90 southward based on the latest
guidance which has come into better agreement. Will mention likely
pops for areas well south of Albany on Tuesday, which is when the
strongest isentropic lift looks to occur. The primary surface
cyclone is expected to weaken as it crosses the Appalachians, so at
this time only light accumulations are forecast. Again, best chance
should be for areas south of Albany.

In wake of this system, cold and dry conditions should then prevail
Tuesday night through Wednesday as our area will be under the
influence of strong surface ridging building southward from Canada.

Will have to watch a strong upper level trough moving eastward
through the southern Appalachians Thursday into Thursday night. This
system may spawn a significant cyclone near the SE coast. At this
time, all main sources of guidance keep any precip with this system
well south of our region. Should this system remain to our south,
it will continued cold/dry with northerly flow into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions in place right now except PSF where ceilings continue
to hover near 3kft. Scattered snow showers and possible snow squalls
continue to track down the Mohawk Valley and look to be in the
vicinity of TAF sites between 18 UTC and 23 UTC this afternoon.
Ceilings during any snow shower or squall could become MVFR with IFR
visibility. Should a stronger squall impact any of the sites, brief
IFR ceilings or LIFR visibility cannot be ruled out. A sharp wind
shift to the west - northwest is also expected during this time
period with wind gusts reaching up to 25-30kts possible.

After 00 UTC, snow showers and squalls should exit the region
resulting in improving visibility and ceilings back to VFR levels.
West-northwest winds will stay sustained around 10kts through the
night.

A secondary arctic front is expected tonight around 03-06 UTC
which may result in reduced MVFR ceilings. Some additional flurries
or snow showers are possible towards 09 - 12 UTC as well; however,
given the low confidence, we did not lower visibilities and only
show SCT ceilings and VCSH to indicate snow shower potential. Winds
during this period should also shift to the northwest (~330 degrees)
and stay sustained around 10kts. Wind gusts increase as peak heating
returns Saturday morning by 15 UTC with gusts to 15-25kts through
the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SN.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrological issues are expected during the next
week. A few periods of light snow and lake effect snow are
possible which will have little impact on the rivers.

Cold temperatures will persist through next week. Cold air will
support river and lake ice development.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SND
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Speciale
HYDROLOGY...SND

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
119 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-231200-
Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire-
Southern Berkshire-Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Saratoga-Northern Warren-Northern Washington-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady-Southern Saratoga-
Western Albany-Eastern Albany-Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-
Western Greene-Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-
Western Ulster-Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-
Northern Fulton-Southeast Warren-Southern Washington-Bennington-
Western Windham-Eastern Windham-
119 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwestern Connecticut,
western Massachusetts, eastern New York except southern Herkimer
County and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Snow showers and some heavier snow squalls are possible this
afternoon into the early evening hours. Rapid deterioration in
visibility associated with brief heavy snow and gusty winds will
occur within any snow squalls.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report winter precipitation
amounts to the National Weather Service in Albany New York, while
following local, state and CDC guidelines.

NYZ038-231200-
Southern Herkimer-
119 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Herkimer County in eastern
New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Snow showers and some heavier snow squalls are possible this
afternoon into the early evening hours. Rapid deterioration in
visibility associated with brief heavy snow and gusty winds will
occur within any snow squalls.

Lake effect snow showers are possible tonight into Saturday morning.
If moderate amounts of snowfall look possible, then a Winter Weather
Advisory may be needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report winter precipitation
amounts to the National Weather Service in Albany New York, while
following local, state and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
139 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

NYZ039-040-047-048-051-058-063-082-221930-
Southern Fulton-Western Ulster-Western Greene-Schoharie-Northern
Fulton-Western Schenectady-Montgomery-Western Albany-
139 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

...SCATTERED BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN ULSTER... SOUTHWESTERN SCHENECTADY...WESTERN
ALBANY...WESTERN GREENE...SOUTHERN FULTON...SCHOHARIE AND MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES...

At 136 PM EST, Scattered moderate to briefly heavy snow showers were
located along a line extending from near St. Johnsville to near
Arkville. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Amsterdam, Gloversville, Johnstown, Cobleskill, Canajoharie, Fonda,
Hunter, Jefferson, Duanesburg, Woodstock, Berne, Fort Plain, St.
Johnsville, Windham, Ephratah, Middleburgh, Broadalbin, Gilboa,
Hagaman and Summit.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 88 between exits 20 and 23.
 Interstate 90 between exits 27 and 29.

These scattered snow showers will produce visibilities briefly to a
half to one quarter of a mile as they move across the area. A quick
dusting to half inch of snow accumulation will occur in a few
locations resulting in slippery roads.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4314 7473 4313 7412 4204 7410 4214 7454
      4217 7445 4220 7454 4235 7443 4242 7462
      4252 7471 4264 7463 4274 7467 4283 7465
      4286 7474
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 299DEG 24KT 4297 7466 4221 7461

TAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
201 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

NYZ047-048-051-221930-
Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Western Albany-
201 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

...A BRIEF SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
SCHENECTADY...NORTHWESTERN ALBANY AND NORTHEASTERN SCHOHARIE
COUNTIES...

At 158 PM EST, a snow squall was located over Central Bridge, or 8
miles east of Cobleskill, moving east at 25 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Cobleskill, Berne, Middleburgh, Schoharie, Delanson, Central Bridge,
Knox, Esperance, East Berne, Old Central Bridge, West Berne, Grovenor
Corners, Old Stone Fort, Quaker Street, Becker Corners, Mineral
Springs, Shutts Corners, Barnerville, Howes Cave and Sidney Corners.

This includes Interstate 88 between exits 22 and 23.

Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a quarter of a mile in
this squall with wind gusts around 20 mph with snow amounts up to an
inch.

Icy roads are possible as the snow melts on the roads then quickly
refreezes.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4278 7441 4278 7433 4271 7404 4252 7411
      4266 7449
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 285DEG 24KT 4272 7433

TAW

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
343 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

NYZ047-222115-
Schoharie-
343 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN SCHOHARIE COUNTY...

At 340 PM EST, a snow squall was located over Jefferson, or 13 miles
southwest of Cobleskill, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Jefferson, Summit, North Blenheim, Breakabeen, West Jefferson, South
Gilboa, South Jefferson, Baird Corners, Vorman Corners,
Lutheranville, Ruth, West Fulton, East Jefferson, Arabia, Welch
Corners, West Conesville, Mackey, Eminence, Owlsville and Fultonham.

Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a quarter of a mile in
this squall with wind gusts around 20 mph with snow amounts up to an
inch.

Icy and slick roads are possible as the snow melts on the
roads then quickly refreezes.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4261 7464 4256 7432 4236 7443 4236 7446
      4242 7462 4252 7471
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 292DEG 16KT 4250 7461

TAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albany NY
352 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

NYZ063-222130-
Western Ulster-
352 PM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ULSTER COUNTY...

At 351 PM EST, a snow squall was located near Fleischmanns, or 18
miles southwest of Hunter, moving east at 20 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Woodstock, Woodland Valley Campground, West Shokan, Kenneth L Wilson
Campground, Mount Tremper, Olivebridge, Phoenicia, Shandaken,
Denning, Ashokan, Mapledale, Samsonville, Big Indian, Oliverea,
Pacama, Brodhead, Chichester, Woodland, Allaben and Branch.

Visibilities will drop quickly a quarter of a mile or less in this
squall. Some wind gusts will be around 20 mph.

Icy and slick roads are possible as the snow melts on the roads then
quickly refreezes.

Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time when traveling.

LAT...LON 4204 7473 4212 7456 4215 7453 4215 7450
      4207 7412 4185 7419 4202 7476
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 285DEG 17KT 4206 7451

TAW