Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
913 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of low pressure systems push across the region through
Friday night while a weak cold front slowly crosses the area.
These systems will usher in another period of unsettled weather
across the region tonight through Friday night, with additional
showers and thunderstorms expected and locally heavy rainfall
again possible. Drier weather looks to return early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 910 PM EDT Thursday...

Ongoing convection is progged to move across northern portions
of the forecast area late this evening, reaching the Richmond
Metro between 9-11 pm while weakening. Will carry chc PoPs
across this area through 06z. Also watching storms slowing
moving ENE from central NC which may make it into NE NC by the
early morning hours of Friday.

Attention then turns to the flash flood threat for early Friday
morning through Friday evening. The upper trough axis crosses
most of the area on Friday, while the frontal boundary slowly
crosses the area from N-S at the same time. Expect deep-layer
moisture to increase early Fri from the SW. PWs are once again
forecast to rise to aoa 2.0" across most of the area. This
combined with forcing from the approaching upper trough (and sfc
front sagging south) will be enough to allow for an increase in
shower/tstm coverage overnight (especially north of I-64). Will
ramp up PoPs to likely after 06z/2 AM for the NW half of the
area. In fact, the 12z/19 HREF has 10-30% probabilities for
3"/3 hours from 09-12z across our nrn zones. Increasingly humid
with lows in the low-mid 70s in most areas. The highest
shower/tstm coverage will slowly progress SE through the day on
Friday as the upper trough axis pivots through the area while
the sfc front moves south through the area. Still think the best
rain chances will be across E/SE VA and NE NC Fri aftn into Fri
evening before convection slowly wanes late Fri evening-Fri
night. Given the antecedent conditions, the greatest areas of
concern for flooding will be in the RIC metro and nearby
suburbs, in addition to the urban areas of Hampton Roads. Highs
Fri only in the upper 70s NW, low 80s in the RIC metro, and mid
80s SE.

Have issued a Flash Flood Watch from late tonight-early Fri evening
for the central VA Piedmont, VA Nrn Neck, and Lower MD Ern
Shore (except Worcester County) and went with a Watch from the
RIC metro, Hampton Roads, and portions of interior NE NC from
Friday morning-late Friday evening. The reason for leaving
certain areas out of the watch (far SW counties, Atlantic coast
of Ern Shore, coastal NE NC) was due to lower rain totals during
the previous 5 days (and thus higher FFGs). WPC has maintained
a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall across much of the area
from 12z Fri-12z Sat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Thursday...

The upper trough axis is progged to remain near the coast on
Saturday, so expect isolated to scattered aftn/evening convection
across the area, with the highest chances near the coast. TC Henri
is forecast to turn northward this weekend as it gets picked up
by the upper trough, taking a track roughly parallel to the
Mid- Atlantic coast. The main impact locally will be an
increased rip current risk. Highs Sat in the mid-upper 80s. The
trough axis is progged to be near the coast or just offshore on
Sunday, with mainly isolated aftn/evening convection expected.
The severe threat with any convection appears low this weekend.
A bit warmer on Sun with highs around 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Operational models/ensembles show the strong subtropical ridge to
remain centered over the srn Plains/wrn Gulf coast into next week.
This will keep our region in N to NW flow aloft (Henri potentially
comes very close to the New England coast by Monday). Will likely
see an elevated rip risk lingering into early next week.

As for precipitation chances, will show generally a low chance for
iso to widely sct diurnal showers and t-storms on Monday, as the
tropical moisture departs to the NE. A lesser opportunity for
showers and storms expected on Tuesday across the south. Models
diverge late in the period with the potential for an upper low to
form offshore and move northward into the region.

For temperatures, have generally run close to or just above the NBM
for highs and lows, based up the continued moisture and the recent
trend of overachieving on afternoon high temps. So have lows
generally in the upper 60s west to low to mid 70s east. For highs,
have readings generally in upper 80s/low 90s on Monday and push
temps a degree or two higher Tuesday and Wednesday. Given
uncertainty regarding the aforementioned upper low and associated
cloud cover/showers on Thursday, will knock a degree or two off
afternoon high temps, resulting in upper 80s across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions expected through the first part of tonight. -TSRA
possible a KRIC between 01-03z. A shortwave trough approaches
late tonight into Friday bringing a chc of showers/tstms at
RIC/SBY overnight, then showers/tstms are likely (PoPs 60-80%)
across most of the area Friday (mainly during the morning-aftn
at RIC/SBY...and during the aftn/evening at PHF/ORF/ECG). CIGs
will fall to MVFR from WNW-ESE from late tonight through the day
on Friday (CIGs may stay VFR at ECG through the 18z TAF
period). A short period of IFR CIGs is possible at RIC late
tonight-Fri AM. Any showers/tstms will produce brief flight
restrictions. Winds generally remain SW-WSW aob 10kt through the
evening, with light/VRB winds possible tonight. Winds shift to
the N-NNE (but remain below 10kt on Fri).

Outlook...Chances of mainly afternoon/early evening showers/tstms
continue Saturday, with diminishing chances Sunday and Monday. Late
night/early morning sub-VFR conditions are possible Friday night in
ST/SC and MIFG.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Afternoon surface analysis shows a complex pattern with the remnants
of Fred NE of the region as an expansive ridge takes hold across the
Gulf Coast. An upper trough is currently over IN/OH, nosing into
western WV with TC Henri off the Southeast coast. A weak surface
trough is in place across the local area with winds generally 20
degrees either side of southerly at 5-10 kt. Waves are 1-2 ft with
seas 2-3 ft.

The cold front, associated with the upper trough to the NW, will
drop southeastward across the region tonight before stalling across
the area Friday into the weekend. Multiple surface lows will ride
along this boundary tonight through early Saturday. SSE winds
increase to 10-15 kt in the Bay and closer to 15 kt offshore this
evening in the prefrontal airmass. Flow across the north turns
northerly for a period Friday morning but the southern waters will
likely remain S or SW ahead of the stalling front. Flow veers to E
and SE ahead of the next wave of low pressure Friday evening into
early Saturday. Northerly flow dominates by Saturday afternoon as TC
Henri begins to make northward progress well offshore. Wind impacts
to the local waters are expected to be minimal with general model
consensus/ensembles keeping the circulation well offshore. However,
seas will increase to 3-5 ft by early Saturday morning and increase
further to 4-6 ft S and 5-8 ft N Saturday night. Seas will slowly
subside on Sunday and Sunday night with most areas back down to 3-4
ft by Monday morning. Waves will stay in the 1-2 ft range but 2-3 ft
will become likely near the mouth of the bay Saturday evening into
the overnight.

With increased swell/seas associated with TC Henri offshore, will
have a high risk of rip currents for the northern beaches and a
moderate rip risk for the southern beaches on Friday. A high rip
risk is likely for all beaches Saturday and potentially on Sunday as
well.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Friday through Friday
     afternoon for MDZ021>023.
NC...Flash Flood Watch from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening
     for NCZ012>014.
VA...Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Friday through Friday
     afternoon for VAZ048-061-062-064-075>078-085-509>511-
     517>522.
     Flash Flood Watch from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening
     for VAZ068-069-080>084-086>090-092-093-095>098-512>516-
     523>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ERI/MAM
NEAR TERM...ERI/JDM
SHORT TERM...ERI/MAM
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...ERI/JDM
MARINE...RHR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
925 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

MDZ021>023-VAZ048-061-062-064-075>078-085-509>511-517>522-210130-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Fluvanna-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-
Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Middlesex-
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Western King William-
Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-Eastern King and Queen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
925 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia and north central
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms have the potential to produce locally
heavy rainfall overnight, as an upper level trough approaches the
region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms have the potential to produce locally
heavy rainfall Friday into Friday night, as an upper level trough
moves across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

MDZ024-NCZ015>017-030>032-VAZ060-065>067-079-210130-
Inland Worcester-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-
Perquimans-Prince Edward-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Brunswick-
925 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms have the potential to produce locally
heavy rainfall Friday into Friday night, as an upper level trough
moves across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ012>014-VAZ068-069-080>084-086>090-092-093-095>097-512>516-
523>525-210130-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Amelia-Powhatan-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-
James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-
Chesapeake-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
925 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, south
central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms have the potential to produce locally
heavy rainfall Friday into Friday night, as an upper level trough
moves across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

VAZ098-210130-
Virginia Beach-
925 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.
   Flash Flood Watch.

An increased threat of rip currents is expected Friday into the
weekend due to swell from Tropical Storm Henri.

Showers and thunderstorms have the potential to produce locally
heavy rainfall Friday into Friday night, as an upper level trough
moves across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

MDZ025-NCZ102-VAZ099-100-210130-
Maryland Beaches-Eastern Currituck-Accomack-Northampton-
925 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

An increased threat of rip currents is expected Friday into the
weekend due to swell from Tropical Storm Henri.

Showers and thunderstorms have the potential to produce locally
heavy rainfall Friday into Friday night, as an upper level trough
moves across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
722 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

VAZ061-062-064-068-069-509>511-200000-
Goochland VA-Western Hanover VA-Powhatan VA-Amelia VA-
Western Louisa VA-Cumberland VA-Caroline VA-Eastern Louisa VA-
722 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Louisa,
southeastern Cumberland, Goochland, northwestern Hanover,
northwestern Amelia and Powhatan Counties through 800 PM EDT...

At 721 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Louisa to near Trenholm to near Longwood
University. Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph, heavy rain and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Powhatan, Goochland, Farmville, Louisa, Mineral, Hadensville, Amelia
Courthouse, Gum Spring, Oilville, Manakin, Tobaccoville, Trenholm,
Morven, Macon, Sabot, Fife, Sunnyside, Bumpass, Montpelier and Chula.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3761 7811 3806 7801 3808 7780 3805 7775
      3802 7775 3799 7764 3807 7756 3807 7753
      3763 7765 3743 7781 3742 7788 3737 7788
      3736 7786 3732 7789 3731 7823 3737 7824
      3731 7832 3731 7840
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 263DEG 16KT 3804 7797 3762 7803 3732 7834

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

TG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1001 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

MDZ021>023-200300-
Dorchester MD-Wicomico MD-Somerset MD-
1001 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Somerset,
southwestern Wicomico and central Dorchester Counties through 1100 PM
EDT...

At 1000 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Saint Inigoes Creek, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Marion Station, Waterview, Oriole, Andrews, Fairmount, Upper Hill,
Hopewell, Kingston, Crocheron, Dames Quarter, Wingate, Manokin, Upper
Fairmount, Mount Vernon, Nanticoke, Monie, Rumbley, Bucktown, Bivalve
and Champ.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Strong wind gusts are possible with these storms. These wind gusts
are capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3848 7597 3824 7594 3835 7586 3800 7569
      3799 7589 3838 7601 3832 7604 3798 7605
      3839 7623 3831 7624 3833 7624 3832 7625
      3831 7625 3833 7626 3838 7627 3837 7628
      3848 7621
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 254DEG 19KT 3807 7621

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

JM