Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
342 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of low pressure systems push across the region tonight
through Friday night while a weak cold front slowly crosses the
area. These systems will usher in another period of unsettled
weather across the region tonight through Friday night, with
additional showers and thunderstorms expected and locally heavy
rainfall again possible. Drier weather looks to return early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM EDT Thursday...

Afternoon wx analysis shows the remnant low of TC Fred tracking NE
through New England, with a weak frontal boundary situated to our NW
(from srn VA to NJ). Aloft, an upper shortwave over the OH Valley is
gradually approaching the area from the WNW. TS Henri is slowly
moving westward off the SE CONUS coast. It is very warm but dry so
far across the local area, with temperatures in the upper 80s-low
90s along with scattered cumulus. Scattered tstms have developed
just to the west of Louisa/Fluvanna Counties. This convection is
progged to move to NW portions of the forecast area by evening.
Will also maintain slight chc PoPs for an isolated sea breeze
shower/tstm in SE VA/NE NC through 00z/8 PM. The severe threat
is minimal this evening, but cannot rule out a sub-severe gust
or two that results in a few downed trees.

Attention then turns to the flash flood threat from late
tonight through Friday evening. The upper trough axis crosses
most of the area late tonight through Friday, while the frontal
boundary slowly crosses the area from N-S at the same time.
Expect deep-layer moisture to increase tonight from the SW. PWs
are once again forecast to rise to aoa 2.0" across most of the
area by late tonight. This combined with forcing from the
approaching upper trough (and sfc front sagging south) will be
enough to allow for an increase in shower/tstm coverage through
the night (especially north of I-64). Will ramp up PoPs to
likely after 06z/2 AM for the NW half of the area. In fact, the
latest 12z/19 HREF has 10-30% probabilities for 3"/3 hours from
09-12z across our nrn zones. Increasingly humid with lows in
the low-mid 70s in most areas. The highest shower/tstm coverage
will slowly progress SE through the day on Friday as the upper
trough axis pivots through the area while the sfc front moves
south through the area. Still think the best rain chances will
be across E/SE VA and NE NC Fri aftn into Fri evening before
convection slowly wanes late Fri evening-Fri night. Given the
antecedent conditions, the greatest areas of concern for
flooding will be in the RIC metro and nearby suburbs, in
addition to the urban areas of Hampton Roads. Highs Fri only in
the upper 70s NW, low 80s in the RIC metro, and mid 80s SE.

Have issued a Flash Flood Watch from late tonight-early Fri evening
for the central VA Piedmont, VA Nrn Neck, and Lower MD Ern
Shore (except Worcester County) and went with a Watch from the
RIC metro, Hampton Roads, and portions of interior NE NC from
Friday morning-late Friday evening. The reason for leaving
certain areas out of the watch (far SW counties, Atlantic coast
of Ern Shore, coastal NE NC) was due to lower rain totals during
the previous 5 days (and thus higher FFGs). WPC has maintained
a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall across much of the area
from 12z Fri-12z Sat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Thursday...

The upper trough axis is progged to remain near the coast on
Saturday, so expect isolated to scattered aftn/evening convection
across the area, with the highest chances near the coast. TC Henri
is forecast to turn northward this weekend as it gets picked up
by the upper trough, taking a track roughly parallel to the
Mid- Atlantic coast. The main impact locally will be an
increased rip current risk. Highs Sat in the mid-upper 80s. The
trough axis is progged to be near the coast or just offshore on
Sunday, with mainly isolated aftn/evening convection expected.
The severe threat with any convection appears low this weekend.
A bit warmer on Sun with highs around 90F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Operational models/ensembles show the strong subtropical ridge to
remain centered over the srn Plains/wrn Gulf coast into next week.
This will keep our region in N to NW flow aloft (Henri potentially
comes very close to the New England coast by Monday). Will likely
see an elevated rip risk lingering into early next week.

As for precipitation chances, will show generally a low chance for
iso to widely sct diurnal showers and t-storms on Monday, as the
tropical moisture departs to the NE. A lesser opportunity for
showers and storms expected on Tuesday across the south. Models
diverge late in the period with the potential for an upper low to
form offshore and move northward into the region.

For temperatures, have generally run close to or just above the NBM
for highs and lows, based up the continued moisture and the recent
trend of overachieving on afternoon high temps. So have lows
generally in the upper 60s west to low to mid 70s east. For highs,
have readings generally in upper 80s/low 90s on Monday and push
temps a degree or two higher Tuesday and Wednesday. Given
uncertainty regarding the aforementioned upper low and associated
cloud cover/showers on Thursday, will knock a degree or two off
afternoon high temps, resulting in upper 80s across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions with SCT CU are expected through early this evening.
There is a 20-30% chc of showers/tstms from 18-00z along the
seabreeze from ORF-ECG...with shower/tstm chances increasing later
this evening at RIC/SBY. A shortwave trough approaches late tonight
into Friday bringing a chc of showers/tstms at RIC/SBY tonight, then
showers/tstms are likely (PoPs 60-80%) across most of the area
Friday (mainly during the morning-aftn at RIC/SBY...and during the
aftn/evening at PHF/ORF/ECG). CIGs will fall to MVFR from WNW-ESE
from late tonight through the day on Friday (CIGs may stay VFR at
ECG through the 18z TAF period). A short period of IFR CIGs is
possible at RIC late tonight-Fri AM. Any showers/tstms will produce
brief flight restrictions. Winds generally remain SW-WSW aob 10kt
through the evening, with light/VRB winds possible tonight. Winds
shift to the N-NNE (but remain below 10kt on Fri).

Outlook...Chances of mainly afternoon/early evening showers/tstms
continue Saturday, with diminishing chances Sunday and Monday. Late
night/early morning sub-VFR conditions are possible Friday night in
ST/SC and MIFG.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Afternoon surface analysis shows a complex pattern with the remnants
of Fred NE of the region as an expansive ridge takes hold across the
Gulf Coast. An upper trough is currently over IN/OH, nosing into
western WV with TC Henri off the Southeast coast. A weak surface
trough is in place across the local area with winds generally 20
degrees either side of southerly at 5-10 kt. Waves are 1-2 ft with
seas 2-3 ft.

The cold front, associated with the upper trough to the NW, will
drop southeastward across the region tonight before stalling across
the area Friday into the weekend. Multiple surface lows will ride
along this boundary tonight through early Saturday. SSE winds
increase to 10-15 kt in the Bay and closer to 15 kt offshore this
evening in the prefrontal airmass. Flow across the north turns
northerly for a period Friday morning but the southern waters will
likely remain S or SW ahead of the stalling front. Flow veers to E
and SE ahead of the next wave of low pressure Friday evening into
early Saturday. Northerly flow dominates by Saturday afternoon as TC
Henri begins to make northward progress well offshore. Wind impacts
to the local waters are expected to be minimal with general model
consensus/ensembles keeping the circulation well offshore. However,
seas will increase to 3-5 ft by early Saturday morning and increase
further to 4-6 ft S and 5-8 ft N Saturday night. Seas will slowly
subside on Sunday and Sunday night with most areas back down to 3-4
ft by Monday morning. Waves will stay in the 1-2 ft range but 2-3 ft
will become likely near the mouth of the bay Saturday evening into
the overnight.

With increased swell/seas associated with TC Henri offshore, will
have a high risk of rip currents for the northern beaches and a
moderate rip risk for the southern beaches on Friday. A high rip
risk is likely for all beaches Saturday and potentially on Sunday as
well.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Friday through Friday
     afternoon for MDZ021>023.
NC...Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for NCZ012>014.
VA...Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Friday through Friday
     afternoon for VAZ048-061-062-064-075>078-085-509>511-
     517>522.
     Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for VAZ068-069-080>084-086>090-092-093-095>098-512>516-
     523>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ERI/MAM
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/MAM
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RHR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
347 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

MDZ021>023-VAZ048-061-062-064-075>078-085-509>511-517>522-202000-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Fluvanna-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-
Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Middlesex-
Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Western King William-
Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-Eastern King and Queen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
347 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia and north central
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms have the potential to produce locally
heavy rainfall tonight...as an upper level trough approaches the
region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms have the potential to produce locally
heavy rainfall Friday into Friday night...as an upper level trough
moves across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

MDZ024-NCZ015>017-030>032-VAZ060-065>067-079-202000-
Inland Worcester-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-
Perquimans-Prince Edward-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Brunswick-
347 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms have the potential to produce locally
heavy rainfall Friday into Friday night...as an upper level trough
moves across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ012>014-VAZ068-069-080>084-086>090-092-093-095>097-512>516-
523>525-202000-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Amelia-Powhatan-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-
James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-
Chesapeake-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
347 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, south
central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms have the potential to produce locally
heavy rainfall Friday into Friday night...as an upper level trough
moves across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

VAZ098-202000-
Virginia Beach-
347 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

An increased threat of rip currents is expected Friday into the
weekend due to swell from Tropical Storm Henri.

Showers and thunderstorms have the potential to produce locally
heavy rainfall Friday into Friday night...as an upper level trough
moves across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

MDZ025-NCZ102-VAZ099-100-202000-
Maryland Beaches-Eastern Currituck-Accomack-Northampton-
347 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

An increased threat of rip currents is expected Friday into the
weekend due to swell from Tropical Storm Henri.

Showers and thunderstorms have the potential to produce locally
heavy rainfall Friday into Friday night...as an upper level trough
moves across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>