Alert archive / Virginia / Flash Flood Watches in 2021

Flash Flood Watch 9, NWS Wakefield, VA

August 19, 202142 counties in Virginia; 9 counties in North Carolina; Dorchester County, Somerset County, Wicomico County, Maryland

NWS Wakefield, VA issued this flash flood watch at Aug 19, 2021, 2:57 PM EDT for 42 counties in Virginia; 9 counties in North Carolina; Dorchester County, Somerset County, Wicomico County, Maryland. It took effect at Aug 20, 2021, 2:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 20 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Aug 19, 2021, 2:57 PM EDT (18:57 UTC)
In effect from
Aug 20, 2021, 2:00 AM EDT
Expired
Aug 20, 2021, 10:00 PM EDT
In force
20 hr
Issued by
NWS Wakefield, VA
Flood severity
None
All 54 counties

Dorchester County, MD, Somerset County, MD, Wicomico County, MD, Bertie County, NC, Camden County, NC, Chowan County, NC, Currituck County, NC, Gates County, NC, Hertford County, NC, Northampton County, NC, Pasquotank County, NC, Perquimans County, NC, Amelia County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Chesapeake, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Emporia, VA, City of Franklin, VA, City of Hampton, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Newport News, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Poquoson, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Virginia Beach, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Essex County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greensville County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, James City County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King William County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Southampton County, VA, Surry County, VA, Sussex County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, York County, VA

The radar

The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 29 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Wallops Is Stn, VA (KWAL), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 156 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Wallops Is Stn, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-08-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1006 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Wallops Is Stn, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-08-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 64 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1006 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-47 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
881 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
64 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
71 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

279 
WGUS61 KAKQ 191857
FFAAKQ

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
257 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

MDZ021>023-VAZ048-061-062-064-075>078-085-509>511-517>522-200300-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.FF.A.0009.210820T0600Z-210820T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Fluvanna-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-
Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Middlesex-Western
Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Western King William-Eastern
King William-Western King and Queen-Eastern King and Queen-Western
Essex-Eastern Essex-
Including the cities of Crisfield, Central Plains, Lancaster, 
Haynesville, Cooper, Corbin, Church View, Princess Anne, Regina, 
Biscoe, Louisa, Indian Neck, Nesting, Lively, Stoddert, Newtown, 
Lake Monticello, Brook Vale, Burruss Corner, Henley Fork, Owenton, 
Kennard, Emmerton, Grafton, Bybee, Downing, Potomac Mills, 
Dunnsville, Guinea Mills, Hawk, Alfonso, Farnham, Lewisetta, 
Cunningham, Mineral, West Point, Beanes Corner, Leedstown, Cedar 
Fork, Potomac Beach, Ethel, Westmoreland, Ashland, Oak Grove, 
Harmony Village, Aylett, Jamaica, Sandy Point, Cambridge, Angola, 
Reeds, Goochland, Colonial Beach, Nahor, Healys, Saint Stephens 
Church, Naylors Beach, Palmyra, Beazley, King And Queen Court House, 
Troy, Salisbury, Kilmarnock, Tappahannock, Dawn, Raines Tavern, and 
King William
257 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of southeast Maryland and Virginia, 
  including the following areas, in southeast Maryland, Dorchester, 
  Somerset and Wicomico. In Virginia, Caroline, Cumberland, Eastern 
  Essex, Eastern King William, Eastern King and Queen, Eastern 
  Louisa, Fluvanna, Goochland, Lancaster, Middlesex, Northumberland, 
  Richmond, Western Essex, Western Hanover, Western King William, 
  Western King and Queen, Western Louisa and Westmoreland.

* From 2 AM EDT Friday through Friday afternoon.

* A shortwave trough is forecast to track over the area from tonight 
  through Friday, while a weak cold front slowly crosses the region 
  from north to south. This will result in multiple rounds of 
  showers and thunderstorms from late tonight through the day on 
  Friday. Localized totals of 3 inches or greater are possible in 
  spots. Given the amount of rain that has fallen during the past 
  several days, a few instances of flash flooding are likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NCZ012>014-VAZ068-069-080>084-086>090-092-093-095>098-512>516-
523>525-200300-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.FF.A.0009.210820T1000Z-210821T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Amelia-Powhatan-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-
James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-
Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Western Henrico
(Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
Including the cities of Williamsburg, Mountcastle, Lee Hall, Severn, 
Emporia, Ordinary, Chuckatuck, Menchville, Benns Church, Glass, 
Hopewell, Amelia Courthouse, Achilles, Barnetts, Fine Creek Mills, 
Deep Creek, Wakefield, Hog Island Game Reserve, Reams, Chesterfield, 
Dam Neck, Worshams, New Point, Booth Fork, Norfolk International 
Arpt, Margarettsville, Downtown Suffolk, Bayside, New Kent Airport, 
Maryus, Crittenden, Petersburg, Midlothian, Wards Corner, Fox Hill, 
Greenbrier, Scotts Fork, Hallwood, Bethel Church, Back Bay, 
Mannboro, Bacons Castle, Lees Mill, Chester, Bottoms Bridge, Orapax 
Farms, Newport News, Mechanicsville, Barham, Fort Monroe, Wayside, 
Chula, Tabb, Longview, Quinton, Peary, Mount Pleasant, Richmond, 
Subletts, Great Bridge, Goodwins Store, Chippokes State Park, 
Driver, Cape Henry, Denbigh, Earls, Norfolk NAS, Roxbury, Fort 
Eustis, Carrsville, Clayville, Naxera, Franklin, Gallups Corner, 
Bavon, Flat Rock, Gwaltney Corner, Norview, Chesapeake Airport, 
Langley AFB, Grand View, New Point Comfort, Kempsville, Poolesville, 
Beaconsdale, Bon Air, Gloucester Point, Ahoskie, Downtown Norfolk, 
Cleopus, Buckroe Beach, Jetersville, Sandston, Grafton, Browns 
Corner, Corapeake, Carrollton, Ghent, Hilton Village, London Bridge, 
Genito, Denaro, Lawson, Talleysville, Bowers Hill, Ocean View, 
Hampton, Fentress, Elwood, Deanes, and Colonial Heights
257 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY 
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of northeast North Carolina and 
  Virginia, including the following areas, in northeast North 
  Carolina, Gates, Hertford and Northampton. In Virginia, Amelia, 
  Charles City, Chesapeake, Dinwiddie, Eastern Chesterfield 
  (Including Col. Heights), Eastern Hanover, Eastern Henrico, 
  Gloucester, Greensville, Hampton/Poquoson, Isle of Wight, James 
  City, Mathews, New Kent, Newport News, Norfolk/Portsmouth, 
  Powhatan, Prince George, Southampton, Suffolk, Surry, Sussex, 
  Virginia Beach, Western Chesterfield, Western Henrico (Including 
  the City of Richmond) and York.

* From Friday morning through Friday evening.

* A shortwave trough is forecast to track over the area from tonight 
  through Friday, while a weak cold front slowly crosses the region 
  from north to south. This will result in multiple rounds of 
  showers and thunderstorms from Friday morning through Friday 
  evening. Localized totals of 3 inches or greater are possible in 
  spots. Given the amount of rain that has fallen during the past 
  several days, a few instances of flash flooding are likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

EI
5 follow-up statements
785 
WGUS61 KAKQ 200121
FFAAKQ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
921 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

MDZ021>023-VAZ048-061-062-064-075>078-085-509>511-517>522-201400-
/O.CON.KAKQ.FF.A.0009.210820T0600Z-210820T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Fluvanna-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-
Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Middlesex-Western
Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Western King William-Eastern
King William-Western King and Queen-Eastern King and Queen-Western
Essex-Eastern Essex-
Including the cities of Crisfield, Central Plains, Lancaster, 
Haynesville, Cooper, Corbin, Church View, Princess Anne, Regina, 
Biscoe, Louisa, Indian Neck, Nesting, Lively, Stoddert, Newtown, 
Lake Monticello, Brook Vale, Burruss Corner, Henley Fork, Owenton, 
Kennard, Emmerton, Grafton, Bybee, Downing, Potomac Mills, 
Dunnsville, Guinea Mills, Hawk, Alfonso, Farnham, Lewisetta, 
Cunningham, Mineral, West Point, Beanes Corner, Leedstown, Cedar 
Fork, Potomac Beach, Ethel, Westmoreland, Ashland, Oak Grove, 
Harmony Village, Aylett, Jamaica, Sandy Point, Cambridge, Angola, 
Reeds, Goochland, Colonial Beach, Nahor, Healys, Saint Stephens 
Church, Naylors Beach, Palmyra, Beazley, King And Queen Court House, 
Troy, Salisbury, Kilmarnock, Tappahannock, Dawn, Raines Tavern, and 
King William
921 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southeast Maryland and Virginia, including the 
  following areas, in southeast Maryland, Dorchester, Somerset and 
  Wicomico. In Virginia, Caroline, Cumberland, Eastern Essex, 
  Eastern King William, Eastern King and Queen, Eastern Louisa, 
  Fluvanna, Goochland, Lancaster, Middlesex, Northumberland, 
  Richmond, Western Essex, Western Hanover, Western King William, 
  Western King and Queen, Western Louisa and Westmoreland.

* From 2 AM EDT Friday through Friday afternoon.

* A shortwave trough is forecast to track over the area from tonight 
  through Friday, while a weak cold front slowly crosses the region 
  from north to south. This will result in multiple rounds of 
  showers and thunderstorms from late tonight through the day on 
  Friday. Localized totals of 3 inches or greater are possible in 
  spots. Given the amount of rain that has fallen during the past 
  several days, a few instances of flash flooding are likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NCZ012>014-VAZ068-069-080>084-086>090-092-093-095>098-512>516-
523>525-201400-
/O.CON.KAKQ.FF.A.0009.210820T1000Z-210821T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Amelia-Powhatan-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-
James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-
Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Western Henrico
(Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
Including the cities of Williamsburg, Mountcastle, Lee Hall, Severn, 
Emporia, Ordinary, Chuckatuck, Menchville, Benns Church, Glass, 
Hopewell, Amelia Courthouse, Achilles, Barnetts, Fine Creek Mills, 
Deep Creek, Wakefield, Hog Island Game Reserve, Reams, Chesterfield, 
Dam Neck, Worshams, New Point, Booth Fork, Norfolk International 
Arpt, Margarettsville, Downtown Suffolk, Bayside, New Kent Airport, 
Maryus, Crittenden, Petersburg, Midlothian, Wards Corner, Fox Hill, 
Greenbrier, Scotts Fork, Hallwood, Bethel Church, Back Bay, 
Mannboro, Bacons Castle, Lees Mill, Chester, Bottoms Bridge, Orapax 
Farms, Newport News, Mechanicsville, Barham, Fort Monroe, Wayside, 
Chula, Tabb, Longview, Quinton, Peary, Mount Pleasant, Richmond, 
Subletts, Great Bridge, Goodwins Store, Chippokes State Park, 
Driver, Cape Henry, Denbigh, Earls, Norfolk NAS, Roxbury, Fort 
Eustis, Carrsville, Clayville, Naxera, Franklin, Gallups Corner, 
Bavon, Flat Rock, Gwaltney Corner, Norview, Chesapeake Airport, 
Langley AFB, Grand View, New Point Comfort, Kempsville, Poolesville, 
Beaconsdale, Bon Air, Gloucester Point, Ahoskie, Downtown Norfolk, 
Cleopus, Buckroe Beach, Jetersville, Sandston, Grafton, Browns 
Corner, Corapeake, Carrollton, Ghent, Hilton Village, London Bridge, 
Genito, Denaro, Lawson, Talleysville, Bowers Hill, Ocean View, 
Hampton, Fentress, Elwood, Deanes, and Colonial Heights
921 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH 
FRIDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast North Carolina and Virginia, including the 
  following areas, in northeast North Carolina, Gates, Hertford and 
  Northampton. In Virginia, Amelia, Charles City, Chesapeake, 
  Dinwiddie, Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights), Eastern 
  Hanover, Eastern Henrico, Gloucester, Greensville, 
  Hampton/Poquoson, Isle of Wight, James City, Mathews, New Kent, 
  Newport News, Norfolk/Portsmouth, Powhatan, Prince George, 
  Southampton, Suffolk, Surry, Sussex, Virginia Beach, Western 
  Chesterfield, Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond) and 
  York.

* From 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening.

* A shortwave trough is forecast to track over the area from tonight 
  through Friday, while a weak cold front slowly crosses the region 
  from north to south. This will result in multiple rounds of 
  showers and thunderstorms from Friday morning through Friday 
  evening. Localized totals of 3 inches or greater are possible in 
  spots. Given the amount of rain that has fallen during the past 
  several days, a few instances of flash flooding are likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

JM
014 
WGUS61 KAKQ 200815
FFAAKQ

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
415 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

VAZ048-509-200915-
/O.CAN.KAKQ.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-210820T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Fluvanna-Western Louisa-
Including the cities of Central Plains, Louisa, Cunningham, Bybee, 
Nahor, Troy, Palmyra, and Lake Monticello
415 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of central Virginia, including 
the following areas, Fluvanna and Western Louisa has been cancelled.

The Flood Watch is cancelled.

$$

NCZ012>014-VAZ068-069-080>084-086>090-092-093-095>098-512>516-
523>525-201700-
/O.EXT.KAKQ.FF.A.0009.210820T0815Z-210821T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Amelia-Powhatan-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-
James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-
Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Western Henrico
(Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
Including the cities of Williamsburg, Mountcastle, Lee Hall, Severn, 
Emporia, Ordinary, Chuckatuck, Menchville, Benns Church, Glass, 
Hopewell, Amelia Courthouse, Achilles, Barnetts, Fine Creek Mills, 
Deep Creek, Wakefield, Hog Island Game Reserve, Reams, Chesterfield, 
Dam Neck, Worshams, New Point, Booth Fork, Norfolk International 
Arpt, Margarettsville, Downtown Suffolk, Bayside, New Kent Airport, 
Maryus, Crittenden, Petersburg, Midlothian, Wards Corner, Fox Hill, 
Greenbrier, Scotts Fork, Hallwood, Bethel Church, Back Bay, 
Mannboro, Bacons Castle, Lees Mill, Chester, Bottoms Bridge, Orapax 
Farms, Newport News, Mechanicsville, Barham, Fort Monroe, Wayside, 
Chula, Tabb, Longview, Quinton, Peary, Mount Pleasant, Richmond, 
Subletts, Great Bridge, Goodwins Store, Chippokes State Park, 
Driver, Cape Henry, Denbigh, Earls, Norfolk NAS, Roxbury, Fort 
Eustis, Carrsville, Clayville, Naxera, Franklin, Gallups Corner, 
Bavon, Flat Rock, Gwaltney Corner, Norview, Chesapeake Airport, 
Langley AFB, Grand View, New Point Comfort, Kempsville, Poolesville, 
Beaconsdale, Bon Air, Gloucester Point, Ahoskie, Downtown Norfolk, 
Cleopus, Buckroe Beach, Jetersville, Sandston, Grafton, Browns 
Corner, Corapeake, Carrollton, Ghent, Hilton Village, London Bridge, 
Genito, Denaro, Lawson, Talleysville, Bowers Hill, Ocean View, 
Hampton, Fentress, Elwood, Deanes, and Colonial Heights
415 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* Portions of northeast North Carolina and Virginia, including the 
  following areas, in northeast North Carolina, Gates, Hertford and 
  Northampton. In Virginia, Amelia, Charles City, Chesapeake, 
  Dinwiddie, Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights), Eastern 
  Hanover, Eastern Henrico, Gloucester, Greensville, 
  Hampton/Poquoson, Isle of Wight, James City, Mathews, New Kent, 
  Newport News, Norfolk/Portsmouth, Powhatan, Prince George, 
  Southampton, Suffolk, Surry, Sussex, Virginia Beach, Western 
  Chesterfield, Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond) and 
  York.

* Through this evening.

* A shortwave trough continues to track over the area today through 
  tonight, while a weak cold front slowly crosses the region from 
  north to south. This will result in multiple rounds of showers and 
  thunderstorms through this evening. Localized totals of 3 inches 
  or greater are possible in spots. Given the amount of rain that 
  has fallen during the past several days, a few instances of flash 
  flooding are likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

MDZ021>023-VAZ061-062-064-075>078-085-510-511-517>522-201700-
/O.CON.KAKQ.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-210820T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-
Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Middlesex-Eastern
Louisa-Western Hanover-Western King William-Eastern King William-
Western King and Queen-Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern
Essex-
Including the cities of Crisfield, Farnham, Lancaster, Cooper, 
Corbin, Church View, Princess Anne, Regina, Biscoe, Indian Neck, 
Nesting, Lively, Stoddert, Newtown, Dunnsville, Brook Vale, Burruss 
Corner, Henley Fork, Owenton, Kennard, Emmerton, Grafton, Downing, 
Potomac Mills, Guinea Mills, Hawk, Alfonso, Lewisetta, Mineral, West 
Point, Beanes Corner, Leedstown, Cedar Fork, Potomac Beach, Ethel, 
Westmoreland, Ashland, Oak Grove, Harmony Village, Aylett, Jamaica, 
Sandy Point, Cambridge, Angola, Reeds, Goochland, Colonial Beach, 
Haynesville, Healys, Saint Stephens Church, Naylors Beach, Beazley, 
King And Queen Court House, Salisbury, Kilmarnock, Tappahannock, 
Dawn, Raines Tavern, and King William
415 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southeast Maryland and Virginia, including the 
  following areas, in southeast Maryland, Dorchester, Somerset and 
  Wicomico. In Virginia, Caroline, Cumberland, Eastern Essex, 
  Eastern King William, Eastern King and Queen, Eastern Louisa, 
  Goochland, Lancaster, Middlesex, Northumberland, Richmond, Western 
  Essex, Western Hanover, Western King William, Western King and 
  Queen and Westmoreland.

* Through this afternoon.

* A shortwave trough continues to track over the area today through 
  tonight, while a weak cold front slowly crosses the region from 
  north to south. This will result in multiple rounds of showers and 
  thunderstorms through today. Localized totals of 3 inches or 
  greater are possible in spots. Given the amount of rain that has 
  fallen during the past several days, a few instances of flash 
  flooding are likely.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

RMM
805 
WGUS61 KAKQ 201552
FFAAKQ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1152 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

MDZ021>023-VAZ061-062-064-075>078-085-510-511-517>522-202200-
/O.CON.KAKQ.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-210820T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-
Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Middlesex-
Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Western King William-
Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Including the cities of Cambridge, Salisbury, Crisfield, 
Princess Anne, Angola, Guinea Mills, Hawk, Raines Tavern, Reeds, 
Stoddert, Goochland, Corbin, Burruss Corner, Cedar Fork, Dawn, 
Sandy Point, Westmoreland, Colonial Beach, Leedstown, Oak Grove, 
Potomac Beach, Potomac Mills, Naylors Beach, Downing, Emmerton, 
Ethel, Farnham, Haynesville, Kennard, Lewisetta, Alfonso, 
Beanes Corner, Brook Vale, Kilmarnock, Lancaster, Lively, Regina,
Grafton, Harmony Village, Church View, Cooper, Healys, Jamaica, 
Nesting, Mineral, Ashland, Aylett, King William, West Point, 
Beazley, Biscoe, Henley Fork, Indian Neck, Newtown, Owenton, 
Saint Stephens Church, King And Queen Court House, Tappahannock, 
and Dunnsville
1152 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of southeast Maryland and Virginia, including the 
  following areas, in southeast Maryland, Dorchester, Somerset, 
  and Wicomico. In Virginia, Caroline, Cumberland, Eastern 
  Essex, Eastern King William, Eastern King and Queen, Eastern 
  Louisa, Goochland, Lancaster, Middlesex, Northumberland, 
  Richmond, Western Essex, Western Hanover, Western King 
  William, Western King and Queen, and Westmoreland. 

* Until 6 PM EDT this evening

* An upper level disturbance combined with a weak cold front will
  combing resulting in areas of heavy rain this afternoon and
  evening. Localized totals of 3 inches or greater are possible 
  in spots. Given the amount of rain that has fallen during the 
  past several days, a few instances of flash flooding are likely.
  

* Low lying and poor drainage areas will become flooded in areas
  of heavy rain. Some roads may flood in locations where heavy 
  rain persists for more than 30 minutes to an hour. 

  PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NCZ012>014-VAZ068-069-080>084-086>090-092-093-095>098-512>516-
523>525-210000-
/O.CON.KAKQ.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-210821T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Amelia-Powhatan-Dinwiddie-
Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Mathews-
Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-
Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
Including the cities of Margarettsville, Ahoskie, Corapeake, 
Earls, Mannboro, Scotts Fork, Amelia Courthouse, Chula, Denaro, 
Jetersville, Fine Creek Mills, Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, 
Subletts, Worshams, Clayville, Genito, Reams, Petersburg, 
Hopewell, Barnetts, Wayside, Roxbury, Bottoms Bridge, 
Browns Corner, Mountcastle, New Kent Airport, Orapax Farms, 
Quinton, Talleysville, Achilles, Glass, Gloucester Point, Maryus,
Naxera, Ordinary, Severn, Bavon, New Point, New Point Comfort, 
Peary, Emporia, Wakefield, Barham, Gwaltney Corner, 
Bacons Castle, Chippokes State Park, Hog Island Game Reserve, 
Poolesville, Booth Fork, Williamsburg, Franklin, Carrsville, 
Lees Mill, Benns Church, Bethel Church, Carrollton, Lawson, 
Longview, Downtown Norfolk, Ghent, Norfolk International Arpt, 
Norfolk NAS, Norview, Ocean View, Wards Corner, Chuckatuck, 
Cleopus, Crittenden, Deanes, Downtown Suffolk, Driver, Elwood, 
Mount Pleasant, Bowers Hill, Chesapeake Airport, Deep Creek, 
Fentress, Great Bridge, Greenbrier, Back Bay, Bayside, 
Cape Henry, Dam Neck, Gallups Corner, Kempsville, London Bridge, 
Mechanicsville, Bon Air, Midlothian, Chesterfield, Chester, 
Colonial Heights, Richmond, Sandston, Grafton, Tabb, Beaconsdale,
Denbigh, Fort Eustis, Hilton Village, Lee Hall, Menchville, 
Newport News, Buckroe Beach, Fort Monroe, Fox Hill, Grand View, 
Hallwood, Hampton, and Langley AFB
1152 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast North Carolina and Virginia, including 
  the following areas, in northeast North Carolina, Gates, 
  Hertford, and Northampton. In Virginia, Amelia, Charles City, 
  Chesapeake, Dinwiddie, Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. 
  Heights), Eastern Hanover, Eastern Henrico, Gloucester, 
  Greensville, Hampton/Poquoson, Isle of Wight, James City, 
  Mathews, New Kent, Newport News, Norfolk/Portsmouth, Powhatan, 
  Prince George, Southampton, Suffolk, Surry, Sussex, Virginia 
  Beach, Western Chesterfield, Western Henrico (Including the 
  City of Richmond), and York. 

* Until 10 PM EDT this evening

* An upper level disturbance combined with a weak cold front will
  combing resulting in areas of heavy rain this afternoon and
  evening. Localized totals of 3 inches or greater are possible in
  spots. Given the amount of rain that has fallen during the past
  several days, a few instances of flash flooding are likely.

* Low lying and poor drainage areas will become flooded in areas
  of heavy rain. Some roads may flood in locations where heavy 
  rain persists for more than 30 minutes to an hour. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
966 
WGUS61 KAKQ 201842
FFAAKQ

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
242 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

MDZ021>023-VAZ061-062-064-075>078-085-510-511-517>522-201945-
/O.CAN.KAKQ.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-210820T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-
Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Middlesex-Eastern
Louisa-Western Hanover-Western King William-Eastern King William-
Western King and Queen-Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern
Essex-
Including the cities of Crisfield, Farnham, Lancaster, Cooper, 
Corbin, Church View, Princess Anne, Regina, Biscoe, Indian Neck, 
Nesting, Lively, Stoddert, Newtown, Dunnsville, Brook Vale, Burruss 
Corner, Henley Fork, Owenton, Kennard, Emmerton, Grafton, Downing, 
Potomac Mills, Guinea Mills, Hawk, Alfonso, Lewisetta, Mineral, West 
Point, Beanes Corner, Leedstown, Cedar Fork, Potomac Beach, Ethel, 
Westmoreland, Ashland, Oak Grove, Harmony Village, Aylett, Jamaica, 
Sandy Point, Cambridge, Angola, Reeds, Goochland, Colonial Beach, 
Haynesville, Healys, Saint Stephens Church, Naylors Beach, Beazley, 
King And Queen Court House, Salisbury, Kilmarnock, Tappahannock, 
Dawn, Raines Tavern, and King William
242 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of southeast Maryland and 
Virginia, including the following areas, in southeast Maryland, 
Dorchester, Somerset and Wicomico. In Virginia, Caroline, 
Cumberland, Eastern Essex, Eastern King William, Eastern King and 
Queen, Eastern Louisa, Goochland, Lancaster, Middlesex, 
Northumberland, Richmond, Western Essex, Western Hanover, Western 
King William, Western King and Queen and Westmoreland has been 
cancelled.

The Flood Watch is cancelled. Flooding is no longer expected to pose 
a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

$$

VAZ068-069-201945-
/O.CAN.KAKQ.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-210821T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Amelia-Powhatan-
Including the cities of Fine Creek Mills, Worshams, Jetersville, 
Goodwins Store, Clayville, Chula, Scotts Fork, Denaro, Genito, 
Subletts, Amelia Courthouse, Earls, Flat Rock, and Mannboro
242 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of central Virginia, including 
the following areas, Amelia and Powhatan has been cancelled.

The Flood Watch is cancelled.

$$

NCZ015>017-030>032-102-210200-
/O.EXA.KAKQ.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-210821T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern
Currituck-
Including the cities of Sharon, Merry Hill, Edenhouse, Windsor, 
Saint Johns, Quitsna, Jacocks, Hancock, Mavaton, Edenton, Cape 
Colony, Horseshoe, Corolla, Knotts Island, Valhalla, Macedonia, 
Woodville, Lilly, Midway, and Elizabeth City
242 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of northeast North 
  Carolina, including the following areas, Bertie, Camden, Chowan, 
  Eastern Currituck, Pasquotank, Perquimans and Western Currituck.

* Until 10 PM EDT this evening.

* Tropical moisture will combine with a weak front to create an area 
  of heavy showers and a few thunderstorms across Northeast North 
  Carolina late this afternoon and evening.

* Heavy rain will likely result in flooding especially in low lying 
  and poor drainage areas. A few roads may become flooded and 
  impassible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NCZ012>014-VAZ080>084-086>090-092-093-095>098-512>516-523>525-210200-
/O.CON.KAKQ.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-210821T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New
Kent-Gloucester-Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-
Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-
Virginia Beach-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-Eastern
Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Western Henrico (Including the
City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
Including the cities of Gallups Corner, Williamsburg, Mountcastle, 
Lee Hall, Bavon, Emporia, Ordinary, Chuckatuck, Menchville, Benns 
Church, Glass, Hopewell, Achilles, Barnetts, Deep Creek, Wakefield, 
Hog Island Game Reserve, Reams, Chesterfield, Dam Neck, New Point, 
Norfolk International Arpt, Margarettsville, Downtown Suffolk, 
Bayside, New Kent Airport, Maryus, Crittenden, Petersburg, 
Midlothian, Wards Corner, Fox Hill, Greenbrier, Hallwood, Bethel 
Church, Back Bay, Booth Fork, Bacons Castle, Lees Mill, Chester, 
Bottoms Bridge, Orapax Farms, Newport News, Barham, Fort Monroe, 
Wayside, Tabb, Longview, Quinton, Peary, Mount Pleasant, Richmond, 
Great Bridge, Chippokes State Park, Driver, Cape Henry, Denbigh, Bon 
Air, Roxbury, Carrsville, Naxera, Franklin, Fort Eustis, Severn, 
Gwaltney Corner, Norview, Chesapeake Airport, Langley AFB, Grand 
View, New Point Comfort, Kempsville, Poolesville, Beaconsdale, 
Norfolk NAS, Gloucester Point, Ahoskie, Downtown Norfolk, Cleopus, 
Buckroe Beach, Sandston, Grafton, Browns Corner, Corapeake, 
Carrollton, Ghent, Hilton Village, London Bridge, Mechanicsville, 
Lawson, Talleysville, Bowers Hill, Ocean View, Hampton, Fentress, 
Elwood, Deanes, and Colonial Heights
242 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS 
EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast North Carolina and Virginia, including the 
  following areas, in northeast North Carolina, Gates, Hertford and 
  Northampton. In Virginia, Charles City, Chesapeake, Dinwiddie, 
  Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights), Eastern Hanover, 
  Eastern Henrico, Gloucester, Greensville, Hampton/Poquoson, Isle 
  of Wight, James City, Mathews, New Kent, Newport News, 
  Norfolk/Portsmouth, Prince George, Southampton, Suffolk, Surry, 
  Sussex, Virginia Beach, Western Chesterfield, Western Henrico 
  (Including the City of Richmond) and York.

* Until 10 PM EDT this evening.

* Tropical moisture will combine with a weak front to create an area 
  of heavy showers and a few thunderstorms across portions of 
  Central and Southeast Virginia in addition to Northeast North 
  Carolina late this afternoon and evening.

* Heavy rain will likely result in flooding especially in low lying 
  and poor drainage areas. A few roads may become flooded and 
  impassible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action 
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

JO
397 
WGUS61 KAKQ 210158
FFAAKQ

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
958 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ080>084-086>090-092-093-095>098-512>516-
523>525-210300-
/O.EXP.KAKQ.FF.A.0009.000000T0000Z-210821T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-
James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-
Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Western Henrico
(Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
Including the cities of Williamsburg, Mountcastle, Lee Hall, Bavon, 
Emporia, Ordinary, Lilly, Chuckatuck, Menchville, Benns Church, 
Glass, Hopewell, Achilles, Barnetts, Deep Creek, Hancock, Wakefield, 
Hog Island Game Reserve, Horseshoe, Reams, Chesterfield, Dam Neck, 
Midway, New Point, Norfolk International Arpt, Margarettsville, 
Downtown Suffolk, Bayside, New Kent Airport, Saint Johns, Cape 
Colony, Maryus, Crittenden, Petersburg, Midlothian, Wards Corner, 
Fox Hill, Greenbrier, Mavaton, Hallwood, Bethel Church, Back Bay, 
Bon Air, Booth Fork, Bacons Castle, Lees Mill, Chester, Bottoms 
Bridge, Orapax Farms, Newport News, Quitsna, Barham, Fort Monroe, 
Wayside, Windsor, Chippokes State Park, Tabb, Longview, Quinton, 
Peary, Mount Pleasant, Richmond, Great Bridge, Jacocks, Driver, Cape 
Henry, Denbigh, Elizabeth City, Norfolk NAS, Roxbury, Fort Eustis, 
Carrsville, Corolla, Naxera, Franklin, Gallups Corner, Severn, 
Gwaltney Corner, Norview, Woodville, Chesapeake Airport, Langley 
AFB, Grand View, New Point Comfort, Kempsville, Poolesville, Sharon, 
Beaconsdale, Edenton, Gloucester Point, Ahoskie, Edenhouse, Cleopus, 
Merry Hill, Downtown Norfolk, Buckroe Beach, Sandston, Grafton, 
Browns Corner, Corapeake, Carrollton, Ghent, Hilton Village, London 
Bridge, Macedonia, Mechanicsville, Lawson, Talleysville, Bowers 
Hill, Ocean View, Hampton, Fentress, Valhalla, Knotts Island, 
Elwood, Deanes, and Colonial Heights
958 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of northeast North Carolina and 
Virginia, including the following areas, in northeast North 
Carolina, Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Eastern Currituck, Gates, 
Hertford, Northampton, Pasquotank, Perquimans and Western Currituck. 
In Virginia, Charles City, Chesapeake, Dinwiddie, Eastern 
Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights), Eastern Hanover, Eastern 
Henrico, Gloucester, Greensville, Hampton/Poquoson, Isle of Wight, 
James City, Mathews, New Kent, Newport News, Norfolk/Portsmouth, 
Prince George, Southampton, Suffolk, Surry, Sussex, Virginia Beach, 
Western Chesterfield, Western Henrico (Including the City of 
Richmond) and York will expire at 10 PM EDT this evening.

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

$$

JM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Aug 19, 1:32 PM EDT, 1 hour 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 19, 1:32 PM EDT, 1 hour 25 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
132 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the southeastern states later in
the week. Meanwhile, a series of weak areas of low pressure
push across the lower mid-Atlantic region tonight through
Friday night ahead of an approaching cold front. These systems
will usher in another period of unsettled weather across the
region Friday through Saturday, with additional showers and
thunderstorms expected and locally heavy rainfall again possible.
Drier weather looks to return early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1055 AM EDT Thursday...

Going forecast remains on track with only minor changes needed
with the morning update. It is mainly sunny (but humid) this
morning with temperatures generally in the mid 80s. Will watch
the progression of showers over WV to see if they enter our far
NW by late aftn, in addition to sea-breeze shower/tstm
development over far SE VA and NE NC.

Previous Discussion as of 400 AM EDT Thursday:

Early morning analysis reveals the post-tropical remnants of TC
Fred lifting across NE PA and western NY this morning, with a
weak pre-frontal trough in place across the local area. Aloft,
filling positively-tilted upper level trough was noted over the
Great Lakes this morning, and will dig across the mid- south
and Carolinas. This feature will serve to weaken/dampen the sub-
tropical ridge in place across the Gulf coast region this
morning.

For today, quieter weather is expected, as the remnants of TC
Fred continue to lift across New England. Meanwhile, the
mid/upper trough axis over the Great Lakes slowly digs closer
into the region. Day will be mainly dry for most, though iso to
widely sct showers/T-storms are expected along sea-breeze across
the southeast VA/NE NC coast. have maintained slight to low
chances of late aftn/evening tstms across the rest of the area,
focused along the lee trough. Most likely timing for tstms is
after 3-4 PM with the highest PoPs (30-40%) west of I-95. High
today in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Thursday...

Unfortunately, looking like additional waves of moderate to
locally heavy rainfall headed toward the local area later
tonight and through the day on Friday. The upper trough axis
crosses most of the area late tonight through Friday, but may
linger near the coast through Saturday. Meanwhile, TC Henri is
forecast to track westward before turning north as we head into
the weekend, when it is still a bit offshore of the VA/NC coast.
The primary impact still looks to be an increased rip current
risk. However, SSW flow ahead of the approaching frontal
boundary will only serve to reinforce lingering theta-e
ridge/llvl moisture hanging in place along the coast. This
moisture, in tandem with the approaching shortwave trough and
ample forcing from the upper trough axis will allow shower/tstm
chances to ramp up Friday morning, first across the northwest
half of the area, then pushing e-se to the coastal plain Fri
aftn and night as the frontal boundary drops across the region.
Will need to watch presence of upper level jet streak pushing
into the region on Friday morning, which could serve to enhance
rainfall potential even a bit further.

The result of all of that portends an ugly day weatherwise on
Friday. More importantly though, another threat for localized
flooding exists across much of the local area, again with
greatest concern for areas in the RIC metro and nearby suburbs
that have taken numerous rounds of tropical rainfall in the past
week or so. To that end, WPC has upgraded to a Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall across the entire area from 12z Fri- 12z Sat.
Have not raised Flash Flood Watches at this time, but given the
current/expected synoptic setup, another round may be need to
be considered later today. Raised PoPs to Likely to categorical
range for most areas Friday into Fri night. Considerable clouds
and pcpn lower highs Fri back into the low 80s NW, with
mid/upper 80s SE.

Convection should diminish for a time Friday night inland, but
with the trough axis remaining near the coast, expect
aftn/evening convection to fire again on Sat. Highs Sat in the
mid-upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Wednesday...

Sfc front settles near or just south of the region this
weekend...but the upper trough axis remains near the coast while the
latest NHC forecast/models consensus shows TC Henri tracking
offshore of the region while remaining parallel to the VA/MD coast.
As far as the overall pattern, operational models and their
respective ensembles are now forecasting the strong subtropical
ridge to remain centered over the srn Plains/wrn Gulf coast from
late this weekend through early next week. This will keep our region
in W to NW flow aloft from late this weekend through early next week
(Henri potentially comes very close to the New England coast by
Monday). Will certainly see an elevated rip risk from the weekend
through early next week.

As for precipitation chances, will keep a low chance for iso to
widely sct diurnal showers and t-storms on Sunday, as the
tropical moisture and upper trough linger (especially near the
coast). A lesser opportunity for showers and storms expected on
Monday and Tuesday, as the upper trough will be northeast of
the area.

For temperatures, have generally run close to or just above the NBM
for highs and lows, based up the continued moisture and the recent
trend of overachieving during the day. So have lows generally in the
upper 60s west to low to mid 70s east. For highs have readings
in the mid to upper 80s on Sunday and push readings into the
upper 80s-around 90F early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions with SCT CU are expected through early this evening.
There is a 20-30% chc of showers/tstms from 18-00z along the
seabreeze from ORF-ECG...with shower/tstm chances increasing later
this evening at RIC/SBY. A shortwave trough approaches late tonight
into Friday bringing a chc of showers/tstms at RIC/SBY tonight, then
showers/tstms are likely (PoPs 60-80%) across most of the area
Friday (mainly during the morning-aftn at RIC/SBY...and during the
aftn/evening at PHF/ORF/ECG). CIGs will fall to MVFR from WNW-ESE
from late tonight through the day on Friday (CIGs may stay VFR at
ECG through the 18z TAF period). A short period of IFR CIGs is
possible at RIC late tonight-Fri AM. Any showers/tstms will produce
brief flight restrictions. Winds generally remain SW-WSW aob 10kt
through the evening, with light/VRB winds possible tonight. Winds
shift to the N-NNE (but remain below 10kt on Fri).

Outlook...Chances of mainly afternoon/early evening showers/tstms
continue Saturday, with diminishing chances Sunday and Monday. Late
night/early morning sub-VFR conditions are possible Friday night in
ST/SC and MIFG.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...

Have allowed the SCA for the Ches Bay to expire as winds have
dropped to 10-15 kt.

Current surface analysis depicts the remnants of Fred moving NE well
north of the local waters in northern PA/southern NY. Winds are
generally SSW/SW 10-15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt in the
northern Ches Bay/northern coastal waters. Expect SW winds to
diminish to 5-10 kt this morning before becoming SSE later this
afternoon (10-15 kt over the coastal waters). Winds begin to
increase to 10-15 over the Lower Bay this evening, briefly becoming
S early tonight ahead of a cold front. The cold front and associated
trough moves towards E VA tonight, becoming nearly stationary
through the weekend. A sfc low develops along the front this
evening, lingering through Friday night, producing more showers and
storms over the local waters (particularly the Ches Bay). Winds
behind the front become NW 5-10 kt tonight, N Fri, and E/SE late Fri
afternoon/Fri night, remaining variable 5-10 kt through the weekend.

Meanwhile, TS Henri will approach from the SE Fri before the
shortwave trough over us deflects it away from the local waters as
it moves N, paralleling the coast while remaining offshore as it
strengthens to a hurricane. Although a direct impact is not
expected at this time, the timing of both the shortwave trough and
Henri will be key in determining how close Henri gets to the local
waters. Given Henri's current expected track, expect elevated seas,
long period swells, and a dangerous rip risk to occur through the
weekend.

Seas remain generally around 3 ft today with 3-4 ft seas over the
northern coastal waters. Waves of 1-3 ft subside to 1-2 ft late this
morning through Fri. In response to TS Henri approaching the local
waters Fri into this weekend, seas increase to 3-4 ft tonight into
Fri, 5-7 ft Sat into Sat night, and gradually subside Sun to 3-6 ft
before finally dropping below 5 ft Sun night. SCAs will likely be
needed Sat and Sun, but confidence is too low in reaching 5 ft seas
within the next 48 hrs so will hold off on headlines for this update
cycle.

Today will be a moderate rip risk for all beaches due to a 10 second
period. By Friday, expect a high risk for MD beaches and a moderate
threat for VA and NC beaches in an increasing swell. All beaches
will likely see a high rip risks and potentially dangerous surf Sat
into Sunday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ERI/MAM
SHORT TERM...ERI/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RMM
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 19, 7:17 AM EDT, 7 hours 40 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
717 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

MDZ021>024-NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
095>097-509>525-201130-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Northampton-Hertford-
Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-
Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-
Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-
Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-
Suffolk-Chesapeake-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
717 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms have the potential to produce locally
heavy rainfall Friday into Friday night...as an upper level trough
moves across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Friday.

MDZ025-NCZ102-VAZ098>100-201130-
Maryland Beaches-Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-Accomack-
Northampton-
717 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

An increased threat of rip currents is expected Friday into the
weekend due to swell from Tropical Storm Henri.

Showers and thunderstorms have the potential to produce locally
heavy rainfall Friday into Friday night...as an upper level trough
moves across the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Friday.

05

The office that day

Everything else NWS Wakefield, VA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 19, 4:28 PM EDTBeach Hazards StatementAKQAccomack, Northampton, City of Virginia Beach3 days
Aug 19, 5:35 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAKQLouisa40 min
Aug 19, 7:22 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementAKQAmelia, Goochland, Louisa, Powhatan38 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Virginia, 2021Flash Flood Watches in North Carolina, 2021Flash Flood Watches in Maryland, 2021Every flash flood watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.