Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
331 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will slowly wash out across the area early this
week. Several waves of low pressure will move across the region,
resulting in unsettled weather conditions through Wednesday. High
pressure builds back into the area late this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

Latest MSAS shows the frontal boundary has sagged south to a
position across srn Va with a leading sfc trof across NC. Data shows
convection congealing ivof both boundaries this eve then lifting nne
overnite. While there will likely be lclly hvy downpours with this
convection, models do show the pcpn steadily moves north thru the
nite reaching the nrn most zones after 06Z. Thus, no flood headlines
anticipated for now given the steady movement of the pcpn. Lows upr
60s-lwr 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

The front is progged to lift back north as a warm front Mon but then
weaken/wash out across the region Mon nite/Tue. Svrl waves tracking
along this bndry will keep a good amount of moisture across the
region both days. The trajectory of the moisture influx suggests the
highest (QPF and PoPs) will be across the Piedmont with lwr chcs
along the coast. Highs Mon 80-85 and mid-upr 80s Tue. Lows upr 60s
to lwr 70s.

WPC has the area in a MRGL threat for hvy rain Mon with the SLGT
risk to the north. On Tue, the SLGT risk includes the Piedmont
mainly west of I95 with a MRGL risk to the Bay.

Now that Fred is back to TS status, data tracks this tropical
moisture ne along the mts Wed, then ne and away from the area Wed
nite. While the heaviest QPF is progged to remain west of the local
area, will maintain likely PoPs across the wrn most zones, chc PoPs
elsewhere. Highs in the low-mid 80s, coolest west due to more cloud
coverage and higher PoPs. Chc PoPs Wed eve, diminishing after
midnite. Lows 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Models show a ridge aloft with high pres off the se coast late this
week. The combo of a steady influx of moisture from the s/se along
with a lee trof will keep the chc for PoPs going Thurs/Fri at just
about any time. Some drying psbl by next weekend as the offshore
ridge strenghtens, but will still keep 20-30 PoP in the grids btwn
18Z-00Z for now. Highs in the mid-upr 80s. Lows upr 60s-lwr 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

MVFR CIGS are slow to lift today, but should finally become VFR at
all TAF sites this aftrn. Still some lingering low level ST hanging
tuff well nw of RIC. Expect shwrs/stms to overspread the area from
south to north late this aftrn/eve. Lcl IFR VSBYS and MVFR CIGS
are psbl in any shwr/tstm. Winds mainly e-ne at less than 10 kts.

The main batch of convection lifts ne Mon as a stalled frontal
boundary lifts back north as a warm front. Winds shift to more
of a SE direction behind it along with addntl convection dvlpng
Mon aftrn.

Outlook...
Periods of MVFR ceiling with lcl IFR VSBYS in showers/storms will
persist through mid week as abundant moisture streams north into
the area.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

Afternoon wx analysis shows a weak cold front in the vicinity
of the VA-NC border, and high pressure well to our N. Winds are
generally E-NE at ~10 kt (a bit higher INVOF the mouth of the Ches
Bay), with 2-3 ft (3-4 ft at Buoy 44009) seas and 1-2 ft waves. Sub-
SCA conditions are expected to prevail through much of the week.
That front is progged to linger along the coast of ern NC, and
slowly move north as a warm front during the early to middle part of
the week (as the remnants of Fred track well to our W...with little
to no impacts expected over the marine area).

E winds of 5-10 kt are expected by tonight as the front meanders
across coastal E NC. Winds will generally be SE from Mon-Tue, with
speeds averaging around 10 kt. Winds become S-SE on Wed, then S-SW
by Thu (perhaps increasing to 10-15 kt). Again, conditions are
likely to remain sub-SCA throughout the period. Seas will generally
be 2-3 ft through much of the week...with 1-2 ft waves on the Bay.

After coordinating with PHI...will introduce a moderate rip risk for
the northern beaches on Monday...given surf heights of 2-3 ft, shore
normal flow, and increasing periods.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...ERI

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
326 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

MDZ025-VAZ099-100-161930-
Maryland Beaches-Accomack-Northampton-
326 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern
Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

Additional rounds of heavy rainfall may lead to localize flooding
Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ021>024-VAZ075>078-084>086-520>522-161930-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Westmoreland-Richmond-
Northumberland-Lancaster-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
326 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, east
central Virginia and eastern Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Additional rounds of heavy rainfall may lead to localize flooding
Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-079>083-087>090-092-
093-095>098-509>519-523>525-161930-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-
Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-
Powhatan-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-
Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-
Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Western Louisa-
Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
326 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
central Virginia, east central Virginia, north central Virginia,
south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Slow moving thunderstorms may lead to localized flash flooding this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Additional rounds of heavy rainfall may lead to localize flooding
Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
448 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

NCZ012-VAZ065-079-087-152130-
Northampton NC-Mecklenburg VA-Brunswick VA-Greensville VA-
448 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern
Northampton, Greensville, southeastern Mecklenburg and southern
Brunswick Counties and the City of Emporia through 530 PM EDT...

At 446 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Seaboard to near Littleton. Movement was
northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small trees and blow around
         unsecured objects. Wind impacting handling of high profile
         vehicles. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Roanoke Rapids, Emporia, South Hill, Garysburg, Brodnax, Dahlia,
Brunswick, Gaston, Seaboard, La Crosse, Radium, Barley, Gasburg,
Claresville, Ebony, Green Plain, Jackson, Gum Forks, Bufford
Crossroads and Lanes Corner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Strong wind gusts are possible with these storms. These wind gusts
are capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3675 7748 3672 7749 3671 7743 3667 7750
      3665 7746 3665 7741 3663 7737 3657 7736
      3655 7733 3640 7726 3638 7755 3641 7755
      3645 7763 3648 7765 3648 7775 3650 7782
      3651 7790 3654 7790 3654 7810 3670 7826
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 150DEG 16KT 3645 7740 3642 7788

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Rogers

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