Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
722 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area tonight, then stall over the
Carolinas Sunday and Monday. Several waves of low pressure will
move along this boundary, resulting in unsettled weather conditions
through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Heat advsry conts thru 22Z for areas east of I95 except the lwr Md
ern shore.

The cold front now apprchg the mts from the nw with a leading sfc
trof east of the mts. Storms are rapidly dvlpng along this trof attm
and expect this trend to cont along with an increase in areal coverage
over the next svrl hrs as they move ese. Even a few sea-breeze cells
dvlpng as well. Svr threat conts through about 00Z for damaging wind
gusts and locally hvy downpours. Will have the highest PoPs and
enhanced wording until then. Pcpn tapers off later this eve and
overnite as the front sags south across the area. Lows upr 60s nw
to mid 70s se.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

The front will stall then slowly wash out across the Carolinas
Sun thru Tue with svrl waves of low pres progged to move east.
The first such wave is late Sun aftrn/Sun nite where likely to
cat PoPs will be in the grids across the Piedmont with chc PoPs
across the east. Although the threat for any svr storms will be
low, it appears the threat here will be anthr round of lclly hvy
rainfall. Would like to see how much rain we get tonite before
considering any flood related headlines. Addntl waves of low
pres will keep PoP chcs alive both Mon and Tues, highest PoPs
west, lower east. Cooler as the high to the north keeps an onshore
flow going thru the period. Highs each day from the lwr 80s north
to mid 80s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

High pressure shifts off the New England coast late next week. Waves
of moisture from the south and se will likely keep the threat for
shwrs/storms going each day. Given the continued westward movement
of Fred, will cap PoPs across the Piedmont at 40-50% with 20-30%
across the east for now. Highs Wed 80-85, mid 80s Thurs and mid-upr
80s Fri/Sat. Lows upr 60s-lwr 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 721 PM EDT Saturday...

Convection continuing from S of RIC to INVOF PHF/ORF causing
ocnl flight restrictions due to IFR/MVFR VSBYS. Additional
SHRAs/psbl tstms until after midnight. Lo prob for ST (IFR/MVFR
CIGS) by late tonight/early Sun morning...esp at RIC/PHF/ORF.
A front will stall near the NC/VA border Sun resulting in a
prolonged period of MVFR conditions into early next week.
Periods of MVFR ceiling and SHRAs/tstms will persist Sun
afternoon through Tuesday as tropical moisture streams north
into the FA.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

Afternoon wx analysis shows a weak sfc trough near the local
waters, with a cold front still to our NW. High pressure remains
over the wrn Atlantic (well offshore of the local area), with a
second ~1026mb sfc high now centered over the wrn Great Lakes. Winds
are generally SW 5-10 kt over the marine area, with a local sea
breeze component evident once again. Waves are ~1 ft, with 2-3 ft
seas.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail for the remainder of the
weekend into early next week. The aforementioned cold front drops
across the waters from NW to SE late tonight through Sunday, with
winds turning to the N then NE following the FROPA by Sunday. Wind
probs continue to keep winds sub-SCA, but a period of 10-15 kt NE
winds is likely over the coastal waters N of Cape Charles and across
much of the Ches Bay on Sun. Timing for these winds is during the
morning north/midday-aftn in the lower bay and SE VA coastal waters.
Highest gusts (to ~20 kt) are still expected to remain confined to
the coastal waters N of Parramore Island. Winds veer to the E and
diminish to 5-10 kt by Sunday night.

Winds remain onshore into early next week, as the weakening cold
front stalls across the coast of eastern NC just south of the region
and washes out. Winds become S-SE by midweek, remaining sub-SCA
throughout the period. Seas will generally be 2-3 ft through early
next week...with 1-2 ft waves on the Bay.

Will maintain a low risk for rip currents through the remainder of
the weekend (and Monday).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ALB/MPR
MARINE...ERI

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
320 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075-079-080-099-509>517-519-521-
151930-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-
Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-
Accomack-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Western King and Queen-Western Essex-
320 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, north central Virginia, south
central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Slow moving thunderstorms just ahead of a cold front will result in
the potential for localized flash flooding tonight. In addition,
isolated severe storms with damaging wind gusts are possible early
this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ076>078-081>090-092-093-095>098-100-518-
520-522>525-151930-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Richmond-Northumberland-
Lancaster-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-
Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-
Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Eastern King William-Eastern King and Queen-Eastern Essex-York-
Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
320 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Slow moving thunderstorms just ahead of a cold front will result in
the potential for localized flash flooding tonight. In addition,
isolated severe storms with damaging wind gusts are possible early
this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
652 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

VAZ083-084-090-518-520-142330-
New Kent VA-Eastern King William VA-Eastern King and Queen VA-
Gloucester VA-James City VA-
652 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Gloucester, southeastern King and Queen, eastern New Kent,
southeastern King William and northern James City Counties through
730 PM EDT...

At 652 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Barhamsville, or near New Kent, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph, pea size hail, and very heavy
         rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
New Kent, West Point, Glenns, Barhamsville, Shacklefords, Holly
Forks, Eltham, York River State Park, Croaker, Cohoke, Gressit,
Lanexa, Mattaponi, Christensons Corner, Cooke, Allmondsville,
Romancoke, Adner, Plum Point and Kings Corner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong wind gusts are possible with these storms. These wind gusts
are capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 7660 3735 7665 3735 7666 3737 7666
      3736 7671 3737 7673 3737 7674 3742 7697
      3753 7700 3760 7695
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 279DEG 11KT 3750 7689

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

Butner

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
655 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW BURROWSVILLE      37.21N 77.09W
08/14/2021                   PRINCE GEORGE      VA   UTILITY COMPANY

            TREES DOWN AND WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES.

&&

JM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
655 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

VAZ093-095>097-523>525-142345-
Hampton/Poquoson VA-Isle of Wight VA-Norfolk/Portsmouth VA-
Newport News VA-Suffolk VA-York VA-Chesapeake VA-
655 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Isle of
Wight , the western City of Norfolk, the City of Portsmouth, the
northeastern City of Suffolk, the City of Hampton and the City of
Newport News through 745 PM EDT...

At 655 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Surry to Churchland.
Movement was northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph, pea size hail, and very heavy
         rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small trees and blow around
         unsecured objects. Wind impacting handling of high profile
         vehicles. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Newport News, Hampton, Smithfield, Hampton University, Langley AFB,
Old Dominion University, Christopher Newport University, Patrick
Henry Field, Churchland, Norfolk, Chesapeake, Portsmouth, Suffolk,
Northampton, Rescue, Driver, Buckroe Beach, Ghent, Norfolk NAS and
Bowers Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Strong wind gusts are possible with these storms. These wind gusts
are capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 7626 3699 7625 3678 7633 3678 7647
      3683 7660 3704 7675 3706 7670 3708 7669
      3714 7651 3709 7623
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 124DEG 9KT 3708 7674 3687 7642

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Butner

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