Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
409 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored off the Mid Atlantic coast
this week, resulting in typical summer conditions. A cold front
will approach from the northwest Friday night, then slowly drop
across the area during the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...

Late this aftn, sfc high pressure was centered well off the Mid
Atlc coast, resulting in a southerly flow and a very warm and
humid airmass across the region. The sky was sunny or mostly
sunny and temps ranged from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Latest
radar showed a small line of tstms moving ewrd into Louisa and
Fluvanna counties, so far producing brief heavy rain, gusty
winds to 30-40 mph, and possibly small hail. These showers or
storms and other isolated to sctd showers/tstms will drift
into/through our NW/nrn or wrn counties through early this
evening before dissipating. Otherwise, clear to partly cloudy,
warm and muggy tonight with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...

Hot and humid conditions will prevail Wed through Fri, as sfc
high pressure remains centered well off the Mid Atlc coast.
Temps and dewpoints increase a bit more for the next couple of
days, with the hottest day looking like Thu with high temps
92-97 degrees, and heat indices of 105-107 degree range for much
of the area. So, may need a Heat Advisory for Thu aftn.
Otherwise, highs on Wed will range from the upper 80s to mid
90s, with heat indices 100-105. Highs on Fri in the lower to mid
90s with the same heat indices.

Chance to slight chance (40-20%) for showers/tstms across
mainly the western half of the area for later Wed aftn into Wed
evening, due to continued lee troughing east of the mountains.
Lows Wed night will range through the 70s. Sfc trough over the
Piedmont will not be as pronounced on Thu, and chance for
showers and storms across the west will generally be aob 25%.
Slightly better chance again Fri aftn into Fri evening, as a
cold front will start to approach from the NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...

The heat will persist into Sat, before the cold front slowly
drops across the area during the weekend resulting in cooler
temps. Highs on Sat in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with higher
chances for showers/tstms Sat aftn through Sat evening.

Much cooler temps then expected for Sun through Tue, as frontal
boundary will linger near or just south of the srn portions of
the region. Highs will generally be in the lower to mid 80s,
with continued chances (30-50%) for showers and tstms.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites this aftn into Wed
aftn. SCT to BKN CU expected into early this evening, with
slight to sml chance of showers or tstms affecting NW or wrn
counties into early this evening. RIC will be the only TAF site
possibly affected by pcpn, but left out of TAF fcst for now. S
or SW winds around 10 kt or less through the period.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR conditions and only isolated to sctd
late aftn/evening showers/tstms through the remainder of this
week. Highest chances will be along/W of I-95 corridor.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...

With the Bermuda High pressure system now set up with strong high
pressure both surface and aloft stretching across the Western
Atlantic Ocean all the way into the Lower Mississippi Valley, expect
SW flow to dominate across the next 3 to 4 days.  This will lead to
generally 10 to 15 kt S to SW winds over through Saturday.  Several
weaker frontal boundaries will try to move into the area in this
time, but none are strong enough to break down the high pressure in
place and will surface just to tighten the pressure gradient enough
to kick the winds up a couple of kts for a short period of time.
Overall not anticipating any hazardous conditions through Saturday.

The next front that might get to the region arrives on late on
Saturday into Sunday morning.  This front is expected to weaken over
the area and be a focus for convection.  But at this point, not
seeing enough cold air to help generate winds or seas that reach SCA
levels.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...RHR/TMG
LONG TERM...RHR/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...CP/ESS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
416 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

MDZ021>024-NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
095>097-509>525-112030-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Northampton-Hertford-
Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-
Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-
Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-
Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-
Suffolk-Chesapeake-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
416 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees are possible Wednesday
afternoon and Friday afternoon. Heat indices around 105 degrees
will be possible Thursday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-NCZ102-VAZ098>100-112030-
Maryland Beaches-Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-Accomack-
Northampton-
416 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
429 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

VAZ061-102115-
Cumberland VA-
429 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Cumberland County
through 515 PM EDT...

At 429 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Dillwyn, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cumberland, Guinea Mills, Sunnyside, Trents Mill, Angola, Ashby, Oak
Forest, McRae, Clinton, Whiteville, Grays Siding, Bear Creek Lake
State Park and Trenton Mills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3762 7826 3764 7825 3767 7824 3764 7809
      3754 7811 3746 7814 3744 7817 3744 7819
      3743 7819 3743 7820 3741 7820 3739 7822
      3743 7840
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 284DEG 11KT 3757 7843

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Butner

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
449 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WSW COLUMBIA          37.74N 78.21W
08/10/2021                   FLUVANNA           VA   UTILITY COMPANY

            TREE KNOCKED DOWN ON POWERLINE. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

BUTNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
453 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW HARDWARE           37.78N 78.45W
08/10/2021                   FLUVANNA           VA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE KNOCKED DOWN ON POWERLINE. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

BUTNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
517 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW GUM SPRING         37.80N 77.93W
08/10/2021                   GOOCHLAND          VA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREE KNOCKED DOWN ON THREE CHOPT RD. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

BUTNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
524 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

VAZ061-068-069-102215-
Powhatan VA-Amelia VA-Cumberland VA-
524 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Cumberland,
northwestern Amelia and southwestern Powhatan Counties through 615 PM
EDT...

At 524 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cumberland, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cumberland, Guinea Mills, Tobaccoville, Trenholm, Sunnyside, Morven,
Macon, Ballsville, Angola, Oak Forest, Hawk, Maplewood, Whiteville,
Grays Siding, Lodore, Lake Powhatan, Hatchers, Trents Mill, Ashby and
Rodophil.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3761 7827 3759 7793 3731 7804 3736 7823
      3737 7824 3736 7824 3741 7841
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 280DEG 16KT 3749 7823

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Butner