Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
409 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored off the Mid Atlantic coast
this week, resulting in typical summer conditions. A cold front
will approach from the northwest Friday night, then slowly drop
across the area during the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...

Late this aftn, sfc high pressure was centered well off the Mid
Atlc coast, resulting in a southerly flow and a very warm and
humid airmass across the region. The sky was sunny or mostly
sunny and temps ranged from the mid 80s to lower 90s. Latest
radar showed a small line of tstms moving ewrd into Louisa and
Fluvanna counties, so far producing brief heavy rain, gusty
winds to 30-40 mph, and possibly small hail. These showers or
storms and other isolated to sctd showers/tstms will drift
into/through our NW/nrn or wrn counties through early this
evening before dissipating. Otherwise, clear to partly cloudy,
warm and muggy tonight with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...

Hot and humid conditions will prevail Wed through Fri, as sfc
high pressure remains centered well off the Mid Atlc coast.
Temps and dewpoints increase a bit more for the next couple of
days, with the hottest day looking like Thu with high temps
92-97 degrees, and heat indices of 105-107 degree range for much
of the area. So, may need a Heat Advisory for Thu aftn.
Otherwise, highs on Wed will range from the upper 80s to mid
90s, with heat indices 100-105. Highs on Fri in the lower to mid
90s with the same heat indices.

Chance to slight chance (40-20%) for showers/tstms across
mainly the western half of the area for later Wed aftn into Wed
evening, due to continued lee troughing east of the mountains.
Lows Wed night will range through the 70s. Sfc trough over the
Piedmont will not be as pronounced on Thu, and chance for
showers and storms across the west will generally be aob 25%.
Slightly better chance again Fri aftn into Fri evening, as a
cold front will start to approach from the NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...

The heat will persist into Sat, before the cold front slowly
drops across the area during the weekend resulting in cooler
temps. Highs on Sat in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with higher
chances for showers/tstms Sat aftn through Sat evening.

Much cooler temps then expected for Sun through Tue, as frontal
boundary will linger near or just south of the srn portions of
the region. Highs will generally be in the lower to mid 80s,
with continued chances (30-50%) for showers and tstms.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites this aftn into Wed
aftn. SCT to BKN CU expected into early this evening, with
slight to sml chance of showers or tstms affecting NW or wrn
counties into early this evening. RIC will be the only TAF site
possibly affected by pcpn, but left out of TAF fcst for now. S
or SW winds around 10 kt or less through the period.

Outlook: Predominantly VFR conditions and only isolated to sctd
late aftn/evening showers/tstms through the remainder of this
week. Highest chances will be along/W of I-95 corridor.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...

With the Bermuda High pressure system now set up with strong high
pressure both surface and aloft stretching across the Western
Atlantic Ocean all the way into the Lower Mississippi Valley, expect
SW flow to dominate across the next 3 to 4 days.  This will lead to
generally 10 to 15 kt S to SW winds over through Saturday.  Several
weaker frontal boundaries will try to move into the area in this
time, but none are strong enough to break down the high pressure in
place and will surface just to tighten the pressure gradient enough
to kick the winds up a couple of kts for a short period of time.
Overall not anticipating any hazardous conditions through Saturday.

The next front that might get to the region arrives on late on
Saturday into Sunday morning.  This front is expected to weaken over
the area and be a focus for convection.  But at this point, not
seeing enough cold air to help generate winds or seas that reach SCA
levels.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...RHR/TMG
LONG TERM...RHR/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...CP/ESS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
416 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

MDZ021>024-NCZ012>017-030>032-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
095>097-509>525-112030-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Northampton-Hertford-
Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-
Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-
Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Greensville-
Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-
Suffolk-Chesapeake-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
416 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Heat indices of 100 to 105 degrees are possible Wednesday
afternoon and Friday afternoon. Heat indices around 105 degrees
will be possible Thursday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ025-NCZ102-VAZ098>100-112030-
Maryland Beaches-Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-Accomack-
Northampton-
416 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
524 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

VAZ061-068-069-102215-
Powhatan VA-Amelia VA-Cumberland VA-
524 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Cumberland,
northwestern Amelia and southwestern Powhatan Counties through 615 PM
EDT...

At 524 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cumberland, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cumberland, Guinea Mills, Tobaccoville, Trenholm, Sunnyside, Morven,
Macon, Ballsville, Angola, Oak Forest, Hawk, Maplewood, Whiteville,
Grays Siding, Lodore, Lake Powhatan, Hatchers, Trents Mill, Ashby and
Rodophil.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3761 7827 3759 7793 3731 7804 3736 7823
      3737 7824 3736 7824 3741 7841
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 280DEG 16KT 3749 7823

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Butner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
525 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

VAZ062-069-511-513-515-102200-
Goochland-Western Chesterfield-Western Hanover-Western Henrico
(Including the City of Richmond)-Powhatan-
525 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN GOOCHLAND...
NORTHWESTERN HENRICO AND SOUTHWESTERN HANOVER COUNTIES AND THE CITY
OF RICHMOND...

At 524 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm with heavy downpours was
located near Wyndham, or near Tuckahoe, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and locally heavy downpours are possible
with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Richmond, Ashland, Downtown Richmond, Bon Air, Virginia Union
University, Virginia Commonwealth University, Tuckahoe, University Of
Richmond, Manakin, Glen Allen, Sabot, Laurel, Wyndham, Lakeside,
Johnsons Springs, Elmont, Solomons Store, Atlee, Ashcake and Roslyn
Hills.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3777 7770 3774 7739 3765 7740 3763 7743
      3761 7745 3760 7745 3760 7744 3759 7744
      3758 7742 3749 7743 3755 7777
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 281DEG 21KT 3764 7764

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
540 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

VAZ060-061-067-068-102230-
Nottoway VA-Amelia VA-Cumberland VA-Prince Edward VA-
540 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Cumberland and northern Prince Edward Counties through 630 PM EDT...

At 540 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sheppards, or 8 miles northwest of Farmville, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Farmville, Longwood University, Prospect, Rice, Raines Tavern,
Tuggle, Reeds, Stoddert, Deatonville, Burkes Tavern and Moran.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3736 7858 3736 7856 3735 7855 3735 7854
      3733 7851 3733 7849 3734 7849 3733 7847
      3742 7840 3733 7810 3717 7823 3732 7861
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 286DEG 19KT 3741 7848

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Butner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
600 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

VAZ060-066-067-102230-
Lunenburg-Nottoway-Prince Edward-
600 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE
EDWARD AND NORTHWESTERN LUNENBURG COUNTIES...

At 558 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Hampden Sydney College to near
Wylliesburg. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph, frequent lightning and heavy downpours
are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Hampden Sydney College, Hampden Sydney, Rehoboth, Kells Corner, Green
Bay, Briery Creek Lake, Prince Edward Station, Briery, Arvins Store,
Twin Lakes State Park, Nutbush, Scholfield, Kingsville,
Plantersville, Blevins Corner, Pleasant Grove, Virso, Meherrin,
Prince Edward Lake and Oliveville.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3727 7847 3715 7815 3686 7836 3686 7843
      3687 7843 3687 7846 3689 7849 3690 7849
      3708 7844 3709 7846 3709 7848 3711 7850
      3713 7851 3714 7854 3715 7855
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 272DEG 12KT 3721 7842 3689 7862

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
607 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW MCRAE             37.45N 78.29W
08/10/2021                   CUMBERLAND         VA   UTILITY COMPANY

            TREE KNOCKED DOWN ALONG WOODHAVEN TRL
            RESULTING IN A POWER OUTAGE. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

BUTNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
614 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

VAZ061-068-069-513-102300-
Western Chesterfield VA-Powhatan VA-Amelia VA-Cumberland VA-
614 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Chesterfield, southeastern Cumberland, central Amelia and southern
Powhatan Counties through 700 PM EDT...

At 614 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Morven, or 7 miles west of Amelia Courthouse, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cumberland, Moseley, Amelia Courthouse, Tobaccoville, Sunnyside,
Morven, Scotts Fork, Chula, Macon, Ballsville, Guinea Mills, Angola,
Oak Forest, Pilkinton, Winterham, Skinquarter, Grays Siding, Lodore,
Genito and McRae.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3743 7834 3757 7817 3748 7769 3726 7778
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 291DEG 13KT 3738 7811

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Butner