Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
947 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough of low pressure lingers across the area through early
tonight. A cold front crosses the region early Friday. A stationary
front remains over central North Carolina through the weekend.
Another cold front moves across the area late Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Wednesday...

Scattered thunderstorms have developed across Maryland and
northern/central Virginia early on tonight. Thunderstorm threat
across southeast Virginia and northeastern North Carolina has
ended. Storms will continue to move from northwest to southeast
across Maryland and central Virginia through midnight. Some
storms are capable of producing damaging winds and hail. Storm
threat will diminish later on tonight.

Otherwise, warm and humid night. Low temperatures in the 70-75.
There may be areas of fog early Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 445 PM EDT Wednesday...

The forecast gets tricky Thurs as mesoscale features will play a
significant role in the outcome of the day (more than normal) with a
wide range of possible outcomes. This is due to the expected
development of an MCS over Wisconsin and SW Michigan this evening
into tonight. The MCS is expected to move SE overnight. It's
expected to weaken by Thurs morning as it interacts with the
mountains. However, the extent of the cloud cover from the decaying
MCS over the FA remains uncertain. Current expectations are for
morning cloud cover to gradually burn off by the early afternoon. If
this happens, temps will be able to rebound into the lower 90s under
partly cloudy skies. However, if cloud cover is more extensive than
expected, temps may max out in the upper 80s instead. This will
greatly affect instability. A strong shortwave will move through the
FA Thurs afternoon with effective shear increasing to 40-50 kt.
Although CAMs are not aggressive with convection initiating with the
shortwave, given NW flow aloft and moderate-high shear for summer,
storms may over-perform and be more widespread in coverage than
currently anticipated. The greater chance of storms appears to
be associated with the cold front dropping SE Friday evening
into Fri night. Therefore, storm chances will be greatest north,
closer to the cold front, late Thurs afternoon into Thurs
evening. The SPC has placed the NE portions of the FA under a
slight risk of severe with a marginal risk extending just south
of RIC to near the I-85/I-95 intersection. The primary threat is
damaging winds, but isolated large hail and/or a tornado will
be possible. More certainty will occur Thurs morning when the
health of the MCS and cloud cover is realized. Storms are
expected to diminish Thurs night as the cold front moves
through. Lows Thurs night in the lower to mid 70s.

The cold front moves through Fri, eventually stalling over central
NC through the early weekend as high pressure settles in from the
north. Any storms Fri appear to be in NE NC where the SPC has a
marginal risk for severe weather. Only isolated showers/storms are
possible Sat afternoon in the SW. Highs Fri in the lower to mid 90s.
Highs Sat in the lower 80s NE to the mid 80s SW. Lows Fri night in
the lower 60s NW to the lower 70s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 455 PM EDT Wednesday...

A stationary front over central NC remains through Sun before a cold
front drops SE late Sun into Sun night. The cold front stalls near
the coast through Wed allowing for PoPs to continue through mid-
week, with the highest PoPs near the coast. Cooler with highs in the
lower to mid 80s Sun through Wed. Lows in the lower 60s NW to
the upper 60s to around 70F SE Sat through Wed nights.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...

Storms have moved out of the area this evening. Mostly SKC, for
the exception of high clouds across northeast NC and far
southeast VA. MVFR/IFR CIGs will be possible overnight tonight
over all terminals, especially the Eastern Shore. Patchy fog
will also be possible overnight over the Eastern Shore.
Conditions improve by Thurs morning.

Outlook...
Sct convection Thurs afternoon/evening as a front approaches
from the north, shifting south Fri. Additional convection
possible by late in the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Rather light onshore winds (speeds mainly BLO 10 kt) this
evening become S tonight then increase to up to 15 kt Thu. Ahead
of a cold front Thu...SSW winds will avg 10-20 kt. The period to
watch for psbl SCAs will be post cold front Fri night into Sat
as NNE winds avg 15-25 kt. Hi pres slides into/across the local
waters Sat night then offshore Sun resulting in lowering winds
becoming SSE.

Seas 1-2 ft through Thu then 2-4 ft Thu night into Sat (maybe 5
ft over the srn ocean waters by late Fri night/Sat morning due
to the increased NNE winds). Waves 1-2 ft through Thu...then
mainly 2-3 ft Thu night into Sat (maybe 4 ft late Fri night/Sat
morning on the Ches Bay).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...CP/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...CP/RMM
MARINE...ALB/RMM/TMG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
554 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-
093-095>100-509>525-292200-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-
Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-
Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-
Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-
Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-
Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Accomack-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
554 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the outlook area
Thursday afternoon and evening. The main threats will be gusty
winds and frequent lightning. Additionally, slow moving storms
will have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

05

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