Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
801 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough of low pressure lingers across the area through early
tonight. A cold front crosses the region early Friday. A stationary
front remains over central North Carolina through the weekend.
Another cold front moves across the area late Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 445 PM EDT Wednesday...

Storms have decreased in intensity due to a more stable near-surface
environment behind strong outflow from earlier convection (some
locations are reporting temps in the lower 70s as opposed to upper
80s to lower 90s). Although the severe threat is diminishing, an
isolated severe thunderstorm will remain possible, particularly in
NE NC ahead of the outflow boundary where the environment is still
unstable. Therefore, the current severe thunderstorm watch remains
in effect for portions of South Central VA and NE NC until 9 PM.
Isolated areas of heavy remain remain the primary hazard. Models
continue to show the potential for more showers/storms for NW
portions of the CWA this evening due to a shortwave moving into the
area. Any convection dissipated by late tonight ahead of the next
system. Lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 445 PM EDT Wednesday...

The forecast gets tricky Thurs as mesoscale features will play a
significant role in the outcome of the day (more than normal) with a
wide range of possible outcomes. This is due to the expected
development of an MCS over Wisconsin and SW Michigan this evening
into tonight. The MCS is expected to move SE overnight. It's
expected to weaken by Thurs morning as it interacts with the
mountains. However, the extent of the cloud cover from the decaying
MCS over the FA remains uncertain. Current expectations are for
morning cloud cover to gradually burn off by the early afternoon. If
this happens, temps will be able to rebound into the lower 90s under
partly cloudy skies. However, if cloud cover is more extensive than
expected, temps may max out in the upper 80s instead. This will
greatly affect instability. A strong shortwave will move through the
FA Thurs afternoon with effective shear increasing to 40-50 kt.
Although CAMs are not aggressive with convection initiating with the
shortwave, given NW flow aloft and moderate-high shear for summer,
storms may over-perform and be more widespread in coverage than
currently anticipated. The greater chance of storms appears to
be associated with the cold front dropping SE Friday evening
into Fri night. Therefore, storm chances will be greatest north,
closer to the cold front, late Thurs afternoon into Thurs
evening. The SPC has placed the NE portions of the FA under a
slight risk of severe with a marginal risk extending just south
of RIC to near the I-85/I-95 intersection. The primary threat is
damaging winds, but isolated large hail and/or a tornado will
be possible. More certainty will occur Thurs morning when the
health of the MCS and cloud cover is realized. Storms are
expected to diminish Thurs night as the cold front moves
through. Lows Thurs night in the lower to mid 70s.

The cold front moves through Fri, eventually stalling over central
NC through the early weekend as high pressure settles in from the
north. Any storms Fri appear to be in NE NC where the SPC has a
marginal risk for severe weather. Only isolated showers/storms are
possible Sat afternoon in the SW. Highs Fri in the lower to mid 90s.
Highs Sat in the lower 80s NE to the mid 80s SW. Lows Fri night in
the lower 60s NW to the lower 70s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 455 PM EDT Wednesday...

A stationary front over central NC remains through Sun before a cold
front drops SE late Sun into Sun night. The cold front stalls near
the coast through Wed allowing for PoPs to continue through mid-
week, with the highest PoPs near the coast. Cooler with highs in the
lower to mid 80s Sun through Wed. Lows in the lower 60s NW to
the upper 60s to around 70F SE Sat through Wed nights.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...

Storms have moved out of the area this evening. Mostly SKC, for
the exception of high clouds across northeast NC and far
southeast VA. MVFR/IFR CIGs will be possible overnight tonight
over all terminals, especially the Eastern Shore. Patchy fog
will also be possible overnight over the Eastern Shore.
Conditions improve by Thurs morning.

Outlook...
Sct convection Thurs afternoon/evening as a front approaches
from the north, shifting south Fri. Additional convection
possible by late in the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Rather light onshore winds (speeds mainly BLO 10 kt) this
evening become S tonight then increase to up to 15 kt Thu. Ahead
of a cold front Thu...SSW winds will avg 10-20 kt. The period to
watch for psbl SCAs will be post cold front Fri night into Sat
as NNE winds avg 15-25 kt. Hi pres slides into/across the local
waters Sat night then offshore Sun resulting in lowering winds
becoming SSE.

Seas 1-2 ft through Thu then 2-4 ft Thu night into Sat (maybe 5
ft over the srn ocean waters by late Fri night/Sat morning due
to the increased NNE winds). Waves 1-2 ft through Thu...then
mainly 2-3 ft Thu night into Sat (maybe 4 ft late Fri night/Sat
morning on the Ches Bay).

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...CP/RMM
MARINE...ALB/RMM/TMG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
554 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-
093-095>100-509>525-292200-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-
Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-
Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-
Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-
Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-
Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Accomack-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
554 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the outlook area
Thursday afternoon and evening. The main threats will be gusty
winds and frequent lightning. Additionally, slow moving storms
will have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
432 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

NCZ030-282115-
Bertie-
432 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BERTIE COUNTY...

At 432 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Westover, or 7
miles north of Plymouth. the storm is nearly stationary.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with
this storm.
. In addition...Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Windsor, Midway, Merry Hill, Quitsna and Woodard.

If you see lightning or hear thunder, you are at risk! Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.

Strong wind gusts are possible with this storm. These wind gusts are
capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.

LAT...LON 3582 7690 3586 7690 3590 7692 3586 7701
      3586 7704 3590 7702 3594 7704 3593 7709
      3594 7716 3611 7680 3601 7671 3599 7668
      3593 7674 3595 7670 3594 7669 3588 7674
      3586 7678 3588 7683 3585 7683 3581 7688
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 047DEG 1KT 3597 7677

Poche

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
514 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S HERTFORD            36.17N 76.48W
07/28/2021                   PERQUIMANS         NC   UTILITY COMPANY

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWNED ON US-17
            SOUTH...SOUTH OF BALLAHACK RD.

&&

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
543 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

VAZ075-077-282215-
Northumberland-Westmoreland-
543 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
NORTHUMBERLAND COUNTY...

At 542 PM EDT, a thunderstorm with heavy rain was located over Saint
George Island, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph and rainfall amounts of up to 1 inch
are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Heathsville, Lewisetta, Edwardsville, Opheila, Middletons Corner,
Avalon and Hull Neck.

Strong wind gusts are possible with this storm. These wind gusts are
capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.

Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of this storm. Be
prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy rain
could cause ponding of water on roads, and possible minor flooding of
ditches and poor drainage areas.

LAT...LON 3806 7655 3805 7655 3805 7652 3804 7652
      3802 7651 3802 7647 3797 7641 3795 7634
      3790 7624 3789 7623 3790 7649 3806 7656
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 331DEG 19KT 3811 7648

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
844 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

VAZ062-510-511-515-290130-
Goochland-Western Hanover-Western Henrico (Including the City of
Richmond)-Eastern Louisa-
844 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN LOUISA...EAST
CENTRAL GOOCHLAND AND NORTHWESTERN HANOVER COUNTIES...

At 844 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Bumpass, or 9
miles southeast of Mineral, moving south at 10 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ashland, Oilville, Wyndham, Montpelier, Gum Spring, Glen Allen,
Orchid, Vontay, Coatesville, Johnsons Springs, Goodall, Elmont,
Mabelton, Rockville, Dabneys, Gilman, Beaverdam, Locust Creek, Apple
Grove and Maidens.

If you see lightning or hear thunder, you are at risk! Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.

Strong wind gusts are possible with this storm. These wind gusts are
capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.

LAT...LON 3797 7762 3795 7762 3795 7761 3769 7744
      3765 7786 3766 7788 3794 7792
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 346DEG 10KT 3790 7779

Poche

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
904 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

MDZ021-290130-
Dorchester-
904 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT CENTRAL DORCHESTER
COUNTY...

At 904 PM EDT, a thunderstorm with heavy rain was located near
Cambridge, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Rainfall amounts of up to 1 inch are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cambridge, University Of Maryland Center For Environmental Studies
and Bucktown.

Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of this storm. Be
prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy rain
could cause ponding of water on roads, and possible minor flooding of
ditches and poor drainage areas.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike more than 10 miles away from a thunderstorm.
Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3842 7586 3837 7600 3837 7601 3836 7602
      3835 7605 3857 7617 3859 7612 3858 7611
      3859 7610 3857 7607 3858 7606 3857 7603
      3859 7599
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 331DEG 21KT 3850 7606

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
919 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

VAZ064-511-512-517-290145-
Eastern Hanover-Western King William-Western Hanover-Caroline-
919 PM EDT Wed Jul 28 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HANOVER AND WEST CENTRAL
KING WILLIAM COUNTIES...

At 918 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Kings Dominion,
or near Randolph Macon College, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ashland, Randolph Macon College, Mechanicsville, Highland Springs,
Hanover, Dawn, Kings Dominion, Studley, Mangohick, East Highland
Park, Enfield, Gum Tree, Elmont, Etna Mills, Epworth, Gilman, Atlee,
Ashcake, Hanover Airport and Doswell.

If you see lightning or hear thunder, you are at risk! Take shelter
indoors immediately. If you cannot find shelter in a building a
vehicle provides safety from lightning.

Strong wind gusts are possible with this storm. These wind gusts are
capable of knocking down tree limbs, small or weakened trees, and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture, and other
light outdoor objects.

LAT...LON 3778 7713 3757 7732 3758 7736 3762 7741
      3768 7745 3768 7746 3769 7747 3768 7748
      3769 7749 3770 7749 3770 7750 3777 7759
      3792 7747
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 304DEG 16KT 3781 7747

Poche