Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
856 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front slowly moves through the local area Sunday morning
then settles near the Virginia North Carolina border late Sunday
into Monday bringing chances of mainly afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms. Drier conditions arrive by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 850 PM EDT Saturday...

Sct tstms continue to move east along a leading sfc trof this
eve with the activity now east of RIC, apprchg SBY/PHF. Although
some wind gusts to arnd 40 mph are psbl in the leading storms,
think svr threat has just abt ended given loss of daytime heating.
Any threat now will be lclly hvy downpours but the storms are moving
to the east so no sgnfcnt flooding expected.

Models show the activity weakening then dissipating by or shortly
after 06Z, so will keep chc/low end likely PoPs until then. Expect
a lull in the activity later tonite/Sun morning before anthr round
of convection dvlps across srn VA/nrn NC along the actual cold front
Sun aftrn. Still muggy overnite despite the temp drop after the storms.
Lows 70-75 except for some upr 70s across the se.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Saturday...

The aforementioned cold front will approach from the NW Sunday
morning and will be weakening at the same time. By afternoon,
the boundary is expected to settle into central VA.
Showers/tstms are expected to develop Sunday afternoon and
linger into the evening, especially across southern VA and NE
NC. Forecast PoPs are mainly 30-60% as there remains some
uncertainty with respect to convective coverage. Brief heavy
rain is possible with any storms, but the risk for flooding is
low. Showers and a few embedded tstms could linger overnight,
but coverage and intensity should wane during the overnight
hours. Highs Sunday range from the mid 80s to around 90F, with
lows Sunday night in the mid 60s to low 70s.

The front lingers over the area Monday, before pushing farther
SE Monday night into Tuesday as weak high pressure builds in
from the NW. PoPs Monday range from 20-30% N to 60-70% S. Again,
heavy rain will accompany showers/tstms, but there is not
enough confidence with regard to coverage for a widespread
flooding risk. A drier airmass arrives from the NW Monday night
and spreads across the area Tuesday. Highs Monday range from
around 80F S with clouds and occasional showers/tstms, to the
mid 80s N. Lows Monday night range from the mid 60s to around
70F. Highs Tuesday range from the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Saturday...

A cold front approaches from the north Wednesday into Wednesday
night, before weak high pressure builds in from the north
Thursday. There is only a minimal chc of showers/tstms with
this front Wednesday afternoon and evening. Another weak cold
front moves through Friday and Friday night with a another chc
of showers/tstms. Weak high pressure builds into the area
Saturday.

Highs will be seasonal and range from the upper 80s to around
90F Wednesday to Saturday. Lows will range from the mid 60s to
around 70F Tuesday through Friday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 850 PM EDT Saturday...

Sct tstms cont this eve along a leading sfc trof across VA/MD
with addntl convection across the mts ahead of a cold front
that will cross the area Sun. Thus, have kept VCTS with a tempo
for storms at RIC/SBY with only VCTS at ORF/PHF and kept it dry
at ECG for the next few hrs. Latest guid shows the pcpn weakening
then dissipating by or shortly after 06Z. Otw, VFR outside on
convection with lcl IFR VSBYS in lclly hvy rainfall. Should see
a lull in the activity cont into Sun morning with more
convection dvlpng Sun aftrn ahead and along the cold front.
Expect most activity across srn VA/nrn NC. S-SW winds aob 10 kts
outside of tstms.

OUTLOOK...
Flight restrictions cont into Sun night and Mon across the south as
the cold front lingers near the VA/NC border. Drier conditions
arrive by midweek as high pressure builds into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...

A slow moving cold front will approach the area from the NW
late tonight, then slowly move across the waters late Sunday
through Mon morning. SW winds will average around 15kt for the
Bay/Rivers/Currituck Sound through tonight and 15-20 kt for the
coastal waters. Waves 1-3 ft...seas 2-4 ft...maybe 5 ft out at
or past 20 nm. Lowering SSW winds on Sun, which should become
WSW or W for a while across the northern waters Sunday
evening/night as the front washes out. With the front
weakening/dissipating on Monday, expect generally SSW winds aob
10 kt. Waves 1-2 ft; seas 2-3 ft. Benign boating conditions
expected Tuesday through the end of next week with the next
potential for a cold front passage late Wednesday or Thursday.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJZ/RMM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ/RMM
AVIATION...AJZ/MPR
MARINE...JDM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
832 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-
093-095>100-509>525-190045-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-
Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-
Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-
Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-
Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-
Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Accomack-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News-
Hampton/Poquoson-
832 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast
North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern
Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms may produce locally heavy downpours this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
817 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

MDZ021>023-180100-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-
817 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
SOMERSET...WESTERN WICOMICO AND DORCHESTER COUNTIES...

At 817 PM EDT, thunderstorms with heavy rain were located along a
line extending from 6 miles south of Cambridge to 10 miles northwest
of Tylerton. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

Rainfall amounts of up to 1 inch are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Cambridge, Hurlock, Federalsburg, Secretary, Vienna, Deal Island,
University Of Maryland Center For Environmental Studies, East New
Market, Church Creek, Brookview, Eldorado, Whitehaven, Wetipquin,
Madison, Lloyds, Mount Vernon, Linkwood, Green Hill, Andrews and
Royal Oak.

Motorists should use extra caution in the vicinity of these storms.
Be prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Heavy
rain could cause ponding of water on roads, and possible minor
flooding of ditches and poor drainage areas.

LAT...LON 3870 7580 3869 7576 3819 7577 3808 7604
      3812 7609 3822 7582 3836 7587 3832 7593
      3823 7597 3837 7597 3837 7600 3815 7603
      3816 7603 3839 7623 3831 7624 3832 7625
      3831 7625 3833 7626 3857 7631
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 223DEG 28KT 3846 7610 3804 7619

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
821 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

VAZ078-082>085-090-518-520-180100-
Charles City-New Kent-Middlesex-Eastern King
William-Lancaster-Eastern King and Queen-James City-Gloucester-
821 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN GLOUCESTER...
SOUTHEASTERN KING AND QUEEN...MIDDLESEX...NORTHEASTERN CHARLES
CITY...NEW KENT...SOUTHEASTERN KING WILLIAM...NORTHWESTERN JAMES CITY
AND SOUTHWESTERN LANCASTER COUNTIES...

At 821 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over New Kent,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.

Rainfall amounts of up to 1.50 inches are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
New Kent, West Point, Urbanna, Talleysville, Providence Forge,
Morattico, Saluda, Jamaica, Church View, Glenns, Barhamsville, Little
Plymouth, Shacklefords, Hartfield, Eltham, Bertrand, Grafton, Cohoke,
Mattaponi and Mascot.

LAT...LON 3756 7642 3734 7701 3752 7711 3773 7675
      3774 7675 3776 7671 3776 7670 3780 7662
      3780 7661
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 245DEG 35KT 3748 7697

SEYMOUR

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