Special Weather Statement, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
659 AM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure moves southeast across Virginia early
this morning. Low pressure and associated cold front will move
across the area today, bringing numerous showers and
thunderstorms with locally heavy downpours. High pressure builds
into the area from the northwest over the holiday weekend
through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 655 AM EDT Friday...

Light to moderate rainfall continues over the northern 2/3rds
of the area early this morning. Deeper convection has been on
the wane this morning with remaining MLCAPE confined to the
southeastern third of the area. Temperatures range from the
upper 60s and low 70s over much of the area to the upper 70s
across the far SE where little if any rain has fallen so far
this morning. Skies are mostly cloudy across the area.

Deep upper trough centered near lake Erie will move slowly east
today, bringing falling heights aloft and continued forcing for
showers and storms this morning and today. The focus for the
heaviest precip and thunderstorms will shift to the SE quadrant of
the area this morning where precipitable water values are around 2".
WPC has included this area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall
with a Marginal Risk for the remainder of the region (except the far
NW). QPF ranges from a few hundredths NW to 1-1.25" for the Hampton
Roads area into NE NC, with locally higher amounts possible in areas
that see the stronger convective cells this morning and today. Given
that SE portion of the area has not received much precip so far and
with FF guidance over 3"/3hrs have decided against any flash flood
watches this morning. However, will have to watch for training
cells, especially in urban areas around Hampton Roads. SPC has the
SE VA and NE NC in a Marginal Risk for severe storms with strong
winds the main threat. CAM guidance has the deepest
convection/heaviest rainfall moving SE of the area by early
afternoon but additional convective development is possible in the
wake of the morning precip, especially if substantial breaks in the
cloud cover develop. Will continue to show mostly cloudy skies today
with some thinning spreading from NW to SE late this afternoon. With
showers and clouds around, high temps today will be markedly cooler
than the last few days with max temps only topping out in the upper
70s and low 80s. Will maintain chance PoPs across the far SE into
this evening before the surface cold front moves through tonight.
Overnight lows fall into the upper 50s NW to the mid 60s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Friday...

The upper low will open into a trough on Saturday across New England
with the trough axis moving through the local area by early
afternoon. Mostly sunny and dry for most locations on Saturday but
more clouds and at least slight chance PoPs will hang on across the
N and NE, closer to the upper low. High temps will be quite pleasant
by July standards with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Any
precip across the NE comes to an end Saturday evening with loss
of daytime heating. Overnight temps will be comfortable with
lows in the upper 50s and low 60s.

Warming trend begins on Independence Day with winds turning
SW and high temps in the low to mid 80s. Most areas will be dry
on Sunday but there could be an isolated shower or thunderstorm
across the NE where any embedded shortwave energy in the NW
flow aloft will have the most influence. Mostly clear Sunday
night with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Dry and warmer still on
Monday as heights build aloft with high temps in the low 90s
(upper 80s for the eastern shore). Muggy Monday night with lows
in the upper 60s and low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 355 AM EDT Friday...

Hot and dry Tuesday as high pressure dominates the Southeast. High
temps Tuesday and Wednesday return to the low/mid 90s with overnight
lows in the low 70s. Moisture increases modestly by Wednesday so
will carry chance PoPs by the afternoon hours. Model guidance
diverges significantly for the mid to late week period and it
remains too early to speculate on any potential impacts to the local
area from Elsa. However, am fairly confident that deep moisture will
increase across the region so will show PoPs around 40% for
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 655 AM EDT Friday...

A mix of flying conditions is in place early this morning with
MVFR/IFR CIGs and VSBYs across central VA northeastward into the
MD eastern shore. To the south, most sites are reporting MVFR
CIGs. Precip and associated flight restrictions will translate
southeast this morning into the afternoon. Will show prevailing
MVFR conditions but brief dips into IFR/LIFR territory will
accompany the heavier showers and storms. Winds generally out of
the SW this morning will transition to W and NW by late
afternoon as a cold front drops slowly SE, bringing an end to
precip chances from NW to SE.

OUTLOOK...
Primarily VFR conditions expected to return tonight and linger
into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 645 AM EDT Friday...

Have updated the CWF to extend SCA headlines a bit longer this
morning given an uptick in W to SW winds across portions of the
waters this morning in advance of an approaching cold front.
The SCAs are in effect through 10am for these areas (and til
1pm for the Currituck sound). Seas are mostly 4ft or less but
there may be some 5 ft seas out near 20NM offshore in the
southern coastal waters.

Winds then gradually shift to the W/NW this aftn (and become fairly
light at 5-10kt). The latest 00Z/02 models have trended stronger
with a cool surge of NNW winds later tonight into Sat morning. Local
wind probs are only 20-40% for reaching sustained 18kt winds for all
but one site in the Bay, so while winds were increased compared to
the previous forecast (with a few hrs worth of 20kt now forecast),
no additional SCA headlines have been issued for the Bay. Weak high
pressure then settles across the area Sat night and Sunday morning,
before shifting off the coast late Sunday into next week. Winds will
turn back to a southerly direction later Sun and Sun night. A S wind
will continue through at least midweek, with some increase in speeds
expected Mon night and beyond. Seas will avg 2-4 ft and waves in the
Bay will be 1-2 ft, except building to 2-3 ft in the Bay (and 3-5ft
offshore) by Tue night/Wed.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     ANZ630>632-634-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...LKB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
406 AM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>086-088>090-509>522-030815-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
Fluvanna-Prince Edward-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-
Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-
Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Sussex-Surry-
James City-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
406 AM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central
Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible across the area through this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ087-092-093-095>100-523>525-030815-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Greensville-Southampton-
Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-
Accomack-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
406 AM EDT Fri Jul 2 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina,
eastern Virginia and southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop over the area this
morning. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated gusty winds are
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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