Special Marine Warning 113, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
402 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough of low pressure will bringing numerous showers and
thunderstorms to the area through this evening. A cold front
approaches from the north on Thursday and stalls across the
area Thursday night through Friday. Unsettled weather will
continue through at least Friday night as areas of low pressure
move along the boundary. Generally dry conditions are expected
late Saturday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday...

Latest sfc analysis reveals a weak sfc trough across the CWA and
this has led to the development of numerous showers/tstms across
the region. Winds have actually shifted to the N for the time
being across much of metro RIC and pts N in central VA, while
remaining S to SW across southern VA and NE NC. With decent low
level convergence in place along with PWATs of 1.80-2.10" per
SPC mesoanalysis (12z sounding from Wallops Island was 1.79"/MHX
was 2.01"), expect heavy downpours and some localized flood
potential from these storms. Mid level lapse rates remain
fairly weak (H7-H5 on the order of 5 to 5.5C/Km), but low level
lapse rates are much steeper and in tandem with ML CAPE values
up 2000 J/Kg can expect some localized wet microbursts. SPC has
the area in a Marginal risk for severe as a result.

Showers/tstms will be fairly widespread through early this
evening (lingering through 03-06Z across far southern/SE VA and
NE NC). Likely PoPs will generally affect most zones during the
aforementioned timeframe. WPC continues to outlook the entire
region in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. QPF will run
on the order of a half to one inch on average, but obviously
locally higher totals are likely (and have already been
observed locally). Very warm and continued humid overnight with
lows in the upper 60s NW to low- mid 70s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Wednesday...

The wet pattern continues Thu and Fri, as the front begins to
move into the CWA on Thu, then slowly drops across the region on
Fri as low pressure rides along the boundary. WPC has continued
marginal risk for flash flooding Thu (with a slight nudging
into the NW counties) and has maintained a Slight Risk on Fri,
as numerous convective triggers are once again expected to
collaborate with moist airmass to produce numerous to sct
coverage of showers and T-Storms, capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall. Current QPF forecast ("Storm Total QPF") is
mostly in the 1.50-2.00" range from this evening through Sat
aftn, but is up around 2.50" across portions of southern VA and
NE NC. As noted above, locally higher totals are to be
expected. Highs will be mostly in the low-mid 80s Thu, then
significantly cooler Fri, especially over the north where an
onshore NE flow should prevail all day N of the sfc boundary.
Have lowered highs into the low-mid 70s N and NE with lower-mid
80s NE NC. PoPs will be at least 50-70% both days by
aftn/evening and mainly chance during the morning/overnight
periods (Fri has PoPs up to 80% across the SW). The front will
be dropping S of the area Sat morning, with shortwave energy
moving offshore by late morning/aftn. Have lowered PoPs across
the NE, while maintaining chance PoPs across the S. Skies become
partly to mostly sunny Sat aftn with lowering dew pts. highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday...

The shortwave trough responsible for the unsettled wx this
week finally pushes to our S by Sat night, taking the best deep-
layered moisture to our south with it. From late this weekend into
the first part of next week, the flow aloft becomes W to NW as an
upper trough deepens over far ern Canada and the NE CONUS. This will
generally favor a climo pattern with diurnally driven (mainly
aftn/evening) showers/tstms. Will have PoPs in the 20-30% range Sun
(highest chances NW) as lee troughing is progged to develop during
the aftn. Will maintain low PoPs for mainly aftn/evening
showers/tstms across a good portion of the area on Monday and
Tuesday as a series of weak disturbances in the W-NW flow aloft
track over the area. A relatively stronger cold front potentially
pushes to our south from Tue-Tue night, with noticeably drier
conditions in the forecast for the middle part of next week (by next
Wednesday). Highs Sun-Tue will be mainly in the 83-88F range with
lows in the 60s (upper 60s-near 70F in coastal SE VA/NE NC). A bit
cooler on Wed/Thu behind the front with forecast highs generally in
the low 80s (and lows Wed night in the mid-upper 50s in most areas).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Wednesday...

Showers/tstms have initiated across the area this aftn. While
predominant conditions will be VFR,have included VCTS wording in
all TAFs and 2 hr TEMPO groups for TSRA for all sites except
ECG where the best chance is 00Z or later (went w/ showers
here). Mainly just heavy rain is expected but did include gusts
to 25kt with the tstm mention. Isolated to scattered showers
likely linger into the late night/overnight hours across SE
terminals, but not enough confidence in areal coverage to
outline in the TAF after 06Z/Thu. Some patchy low clouds will be
possible early Thu, then MVFR CIGs improving to VFR are expected
by mid-late morning.

Outlook: Unsettled conditions are likely to continue with
redeveloping showers/tstms Thu aftn as a cold front approaches
from the N. It is expected to remain unsettled w/ periodic
flight restrictions Thu night/fri/Fri night, then with clearing/VFR
conditions later Sat-Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 PM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure remains off the Southeast coast with a sharpening lee
trough extending from western NC northeast to New England. Local
winds are out of the west and southwest at 5-15 kt. Waves are 1-2 ft
in the Bay with seas 2-3 ft.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms have formed along and ahead of
the lee trough this afternoon with a few cells emerging off the
Lower Peninsula into the lower James river and southern Ches Bay.
Additional storms will persist over land areas and impact adjacent
marine zones through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening
hours. Locally higher winds/waves/seas can be expected to accompany
the stronger storms.

SW flow will continue into Thursday morning with a weakening
boundary expected to dip south and west through the afternoon,
turning winds to the SE across the southern waters and E and ENE for
the northern waters. ENE/NE flow will continue into Friday afternoon
before a stronger push of NE winds (perhaps as high as 15-20 kt)
drops southward Friday night into Saturday. Winds look to remain
below SCA thresholds through the weekend but seas may build to 3-5
offshore, especially out near 20nm.

Low Rip Risk for area beaches continues Thursday. Southern beaches
retain a low rip risk on Friday but the northern beaches will have a
moderate risk with increasing onshore flow.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...RHR/TMG

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