Alert archive / Virginia / Coastal Flood Statements in 2021

Coastal Flood Statement 8, NWS Wakefield, VA

February 12, 202110 counties in Virginia; Currituck County, North Carolina

NWS Wakefield, VA issued this coastal flood statement at Feb 12, 2021, 3:09 AM EST for 10 counties in Virginia; Currituck County, North Carolina. It was in force for 10 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 12, 2021, 3:09 AM EST (08:09 UTC)
Expired
Feb 12, 2021, 1:00 PM EST
In force
10 hr
Issued by
NWS Wakefield, VA

Counties Currituck County, NC, City of Chesapeake, VA, City of Hampton, VA, City of Newport News, VA, City of Poquoson, VA, City of Virginia Beach, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, James City County, VA, Northampton County, VA, Surry County, VA, York County, VA

The radar

The Norfolk radar (KAKQ), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Wallops Is Stn, VA (KWAL), launched 00:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 133 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Wallops Is Stn, VA at 00:00Z on 2021-02-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Wallops Is Stn, VA at 00:00Z on 2021-02-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -3 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
512 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
72 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
212 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

728 
WHUS41 KAKQ 120809
CFWAKQ

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
309 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

NCZ102-VAZ098-100-121600-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.CF.S.0008.210212T0809Z-210212T1600Z/
Eastern Currituck-Virginia Beach-Northampton-
309 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

* WHAT...One to two feet of inundation above ground level in low-
   lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...In Virginia, Northampton County, and Virginia Beach. 
  In North Carolina, Eastern Currituck County.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is possible in the most vulnerable 
  locations near the waterfront and shoreline.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded roadways.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.0 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.1 FT, MODERATE 2.6 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 12/09 AM     4.3        1.4        1.3        4       NONE    
 12/09 PM     3.7        0.8        1.1        4       NONE    
 13/09 AM     4.1        1.2        1.2        4       NONE    
 13/10 PM     3.7        0.8        1.1       3-4      NONE    
 14/10 AM     3.8        0.9        1.1        3       NONE    
 14/10 PM     3.7        0.8        1.1        3       NONE

SEWELLS POINT VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 12/10 AM     4.4        1.6        1.6        3       NONE    
 12/10 PM     3.7        0.9        1.3        3       NONE    
 13/10 AM     4.1        1.3        1.4        3       NONE    
 13/10 PM     3.8        1.0        1.4        3       NONE    
 14/11 AM     3.9        1.1        1.4        3       NONE    
 14/11 PM     3.8        1.0        1.4       2-3      NONE

OYSTER VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.0 FT, MODERATE 7.5 FT, MAJOR 8.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.4 FT, MODERATE 2.9 FT, MAJOR 3.9 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 12/09 AM     6.9        2.3        1.6        1       NONE    
 12/09 PM     5.6        1.0        1.5        1       NONE    
 13/10 AM     6.3        1.7        1.2        1       NONE    
 13/10 PM     5.3        0.7        1.1        1       NONE    
 14/10 AM     6.0        1.4        1.1        1       NONE    
 14/11 PM     5.3        0.7        1.1        1       NONE

NASSAWADOX CREEK AT BAYFORD VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.0 FT, MODERATE 1.5 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 12/10 AM     2.9        0.9        1.1       2-3      NONE    
 12/10 PM     2.4        0.4        0.8        3       NONE    
 13/11 AM     2.7        0.7        0.9        3       NONE    
 13/11 PM     2.5        0.5        0.9        3       NONE    
 14/11 AM     2.6        0.6        0.9        3       NONE    
 15/12 AM     2.6        0.6        0.9        3       NONE

KIPTOPEKE VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.0 FT, MAJOR 5.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 12/09 AM     4.3        1.3        1.4       2-3      NONE    
 12/09 PM     3.5        0.5        1.0       2-3      NONE    
 13/10 AM     3.9        0.9        1.1        4       NONE    
 13/10 PM     3.6        0.6        1.1       3-4      NONE    
 14/10 AM     3.8        0.8        1.1        3       NONE    
 14/11 PM     3.5        0.5        1.0        3       NONE

COROLLA NC
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.5 FT, MODERATE 6.0 FT, MAJOR 6.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.8 FT, MODERATE 2.3 FT, MAJOR 2.8 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 12/08 AM     5.4        1.7        1.6        6       NONE    
 12/08 PM     4.4        0.7        1.2        5       NONE    
 13/08 AM     4.8        1.1        1.2        5       NONE    
 13/09 PM     4.5        0.8        1.3        4       NONE    
 14/09 AM     4.7        1.0        1.3        4       NONE    
 14/09 PM     4.4        0.7        1.2        3       NONE

&&

$$

VAZ095-097-523-525-121600-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.CF.S.0008.210212T0809Z-210212T1600Z/
Norfolk/Portsmouth-Chesapeake-York-Hampton/Poquoson-
309 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

* WHAT...One to two feet of inundation above ground level in low-
   lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...Chesapeake, and Hampton/Poquoson, Norfolk/Portsmouth 
  and York Counties.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is possible in the most vulnerable 
  locations near the waterfront and shoreline.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded roadways.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.0 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.1 FT, MODERATE 2.6 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 12/09 AM     4.3        1.4        1.3        4       NONE    
 12/09 PM     3.7        0.8        1.1        4       NONE    
 13/09 AM     4.1        1.2        1.2        4       NONE    
 13/10 PM     3.7        0.8        1.1       3-4      NONE    
 14/10 AM     3.8        0.9        1.1        3       NONE    
 14/10 PM     3.7        0.8        1.1        3       NONE

MONEY POINT VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.0 FT, MODERATE 6.0 FT, MAJOR 7.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.8 FT, MODERATE 2.8 FT, MAJOR 3.8 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 12/10 AM     4.9        1.7        1.8        1       NONE    
 12/10 PM     4.1        0.9        1.3        1       NONE    
 13/11 AM     4.3        1.1        1.2        1       NONE    
 13/11 PM     4.0        0.8        1.2        1       NONE    
 14/11 AM     4.0        0.8        1.1        1       NONE    
 14/11 PM     3.9        0.7        1.1        1       NONE

ELIZABETH RIVER AT MIDTOWN TUNNEL VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.0 FT, MODERATE 6.0 FT, MAJOR 7.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.0 FT, MODERATE 3.0 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 12/10 AM     4.9        1.9        1.8        1       NONE    
 12/10 PM     4.2        1.2        1.5        1       NONE    
 13/11 AM     4.4        1.4        1.4        1       NONE    
 13/11 PM     4.1        1.1        1.4        1       NONE    
 14/11 AM     4.1        1.1        1.3        1       NONE    
 14/11 PM     3.9        0.9        1.2        1       NONE

WESTERN BRANCH OF THE ELIZABETH RIVER VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.0 FT, MODERATE 6.0 FT, MAJOR 7.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.0 FT, MODERATE 3.0 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 12/10 AM     4.8        1.8        1.7        1       NONE    
 12/10 PM     4.2        1.2        1.4        1       NONE    
 13/10 AM     4.4        1.4        1.5        1       NONE    
 13/11 PM     4.2        1.2        1.4        1       NONE    
 14/11 AM     4.2        1.2        1.4        1       NONE    
 14/11 PM     3.8        0.8        1.1        1       NONE

SEWELLS POINT VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 12/10 AM     4.4        1.6        1.6        3       NONE    
 12/10 PM     3.7        0.9        1.3        3       NONE    
 13/10 AM     4.1        1.3        1.4        3       NONE    
 13/10 PM     3.8        1.0        1.4        3       NONE    
 14/11 AM     3.9        1.1        1.4        3       NONE    
 14/11 PM     3.8        1.0        1.4       2-3      NONE

YORKTOWN VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.0 FT, MAJOR 5.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.9 FT, MODERATE 2.4 FT, MAJOR 2.9 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 12/10 AM     4.0        1.4        1.7        1       NONE    
 12/10 PM     3.3        0.7        1.3        1       NONE    
 13/10 AM     3.5        0.9        1.3        1       NONE    
 13/10 PM     3.3        0.7        1.3        1       NONE    
 14/11 AM     3.4        0.8        1.3        1       NONE    
 14/11 PM     3.2        0.6        1.2        1       NONE

FORT MONROE VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.2 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 12/10 AM     4.4        1.6        1.6        3       NONE    
 12/10 PM     3.9        1.1        1.4        3       NONE    
 13/10 AM     4.2        1.4        1.5        3       NONE    
 13/11 PM     4.0        1.2        1.5       2-3      NONE    
 14/11 AM     4.0        1.2        1.4        3       NONE    
 14/11 PM     3.9        1.1        1.4       2-3      NONE

&&

$$

VAZ089-090-093-096-524-121615-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.CF.S.0008.210212T0809Z-210212T1800Z/
Surry-James City-Isle of Wight-Suffolk-Newport News-
309 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

* WHAT...One to two feet of inundation above ground level in low-
   lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.

* WHERE...James City, Newport News, Isle of Wight and Surry 
  Counties, and Suffolk.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Shallow flooding is possible in the most vulnerable 
  locations near the waterfront and shoreline.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flooded roadways.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

JAMES RIVER AT SCOTLAND/JAMESTOWN VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.0 FT, MODERATE 4.5 FT, MAJOR 5.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.8 FT, MODERATE 2.3 FT, MAJOR 2.8 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 12/12 PM     3.8        1.6        1.7        1       NONE    
 13/01 AM     3.2        1.0        1.5        1       NONE    
 13/01 PM     3.3        1.1        1.3        1       NONE    
 14/01 AM     3.2        1.0        1.5        1       NONE    
 14/02 PM     3.3        1.1        1.4        1       NONE

SEWELLS POINT VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.5 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 12/10 AM     4.4        1.6        1.6        3       NONE    
 12/10 PM     3.7        0.9        1.3        3       NONE    
 13/10 AM     4.1        1.3        1.4        3       NONE    
 13/10 PM     3.8        1.0        1.4        3       NONE    
 14/11 AM     3.9        1.1        1.4        3       NONE    
 14/11 PM     3.8        1.0        1.4       2-3      NONE

FORT MONROE VA
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.5 FT, MAJOR 6.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.2 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE                   
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD  
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 12/10 AM     4.4        1.6        1.6        3       NONE    
 12/10 PM     3.9        1.1        1.4        3       NONE    
 13/10 AM     4.2        1.4        1.5        3       NONE    
 13/11 PM     4.0        1.2        1.5       2-3      NONE    
 14/11 AM     4.0        1.2        1.4        3       NONE    
 14/11 PM     3.9        1.1        1.4       2-3      NONE

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this coastal flood statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this coastal flood statement went out at Feb 12, 12:56 AM EST, 2 hours 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 12, 12:56 AM EST, 2 hours 13 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1256 AM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks across the Mid-Atlantic region through
tonight. This will bring wintry weather to portions of the area
into Friday morning. Unsettled conditions continue into
Saturday as another low pressure systems tracks across the area
bringing an additional threat of winter weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 330 PM EST Thursday...

Band of mixed ptype continues to gradually settle S into srn VA
attm...w/ primarily snow N of a FVX-RIC-MFV line. Steady pcpn
expected to last a bit longer then gradually break up/diminish
after midnight/by late tonight. Have tightened up the snow
accums S of RIC to avg 1" or less while nudging up accums a bit
from just N of RIC on ENE to the bay. All areas (outside of far
SE VA-NE NC) will likely have at least a bit of freezing
rain/ice accum (avgg less than 0.10"). No changes to the current
winter weather advisory. Lows in the m-u20s N and W to the
m-u30s in far SE VA- coastal NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM EST Thursday...

Shallow moisture between 0 and -10C lingers into Friday morning, so
some spotty light freezing rain or drizzle is likely to continue for
areas at or below 32F. Given this, the winter weather advisory will
run through noon Friday. Temperatures will struggle to rise Friday,
with highs around freezing for much of the area, to low 40s SE,
after morning lows in the mid/upper 20s NW, to mid/upper 30s SE.
Still could see some freezing drizzle through Fri aftn, but will
leave the advisory timing as is for now.

Still anticipating a classic CAD setup for Friday night through
Saturday night. At the sfc, strong ~1045 high pressure over south
central Canada will extend southward down the spine of the
Appalachian Mountains with a N/NNE flow keeping a steady supply of
cold air at the surface east of the mountains. The cold air will be
further supported by any fresh snow and/or ice to the north.
Meanwhile, weak low pressure looks to develop off the Carolinas and
will move NE as it parallels the coast through Sat night. The low is
expected to stay weak enough that it doesn't pull in enough cold air
aloft for snow. Instead, warm mid levels look to keep ice as the
dominant ptype with an area of sleet and freezing rain inland and
rain near the coast. Highs Sat range from around 30F NW to the low
40s SE along the coast with most areas in the low to mid 30s. Lows
Fri and Sat nights range from the upper 20s NW to the mid to upper
30s SE.

There is increasing confidence that the late Fri night through Sat
period poses a significant ice threat to our FA. Model consensus
keeps sub-freezing sfc air locked into the Piedmont/I-95 corridor
from Friday night through Saturday night (including during the day
on Saturday). If this ends up being the case, then the potential is
there for warning criteria ice amounts (0.25-0.50") in the
aforementioned areas. Based on this threat and in coordination with
WPC and surrounding offices, have issued a Winter Storm Watch from
Midnight Friday night to Midnight Saturday night from interior
portions of the Northern Neck SW to Prince George County to
Brunswick County and points west including all of our Piedmont
counties. One difference in the guidance from previous runs is that
pcpn does seem to be slower arriving, now mainly focused on late
morning Sat into Sat night. Will this later arrival time of pcpn
allow 1-2 degrees F of additional sfc warming on Saturday which
could save us from a more significant icing event, i.e, max T 30-33
deg F vs 28-31? That is still uncertain at this time and why we have
favored a rather large winter storm watch. Later shifts can fine
tune the exact location of any winter storm/ice storm warnings
and/or advisories. A concerning trend though is that the WPC
Superensemble plumes are quite aggressive for our FA, showing a mean
ice accrual of 0.4+ for our western counties. As the low pulls
away Sat night, precip will end from W to E.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM EST Thursday...

Only slight chance Pops will remain on Sun and slight chc to low end
chc Pops on Monday in advance of the next area of low pressure that
will impact the area. Still leaning towards an inland track with the
highest PoPs Monday night into Tues. With a strong (~1037 mb) high
to the north in Ontario, CAD looks to be maintained through at least
the first half of the event. The high does retreat N Tues so
confidence in how long the CAD wedge holds on is low. Nevertheless,
there is some signal for decent moisture return and with surface
temps likely below freezing for at least the NW piedmont at the
start, freezing rain and sleet look to be a concern. Have maintained
a slight risk for a winter storm in the piedmont to account for this
threat. High pressure and dry weather return for Wed. Yet another
system with either ice and rain or all rain looks to impact the FA
late Wed night into Thurs.

Highs will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s Sun, mid 30s NW to
low 40s SE Mon, upper 30s NW to mid 50s SE Tues, low 40s NW to
around 50 SE Wed, and low 40s NW to upr 50s SE Thurs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1255 AM EST Friday...

Widespread IFR CIGs expected to continue through the 06z TAF
forecast period with the exception of SBY where MVFR CIGs will
likely prevail (occasional IFR VIS). Transition from rain to
mixed ptype occurring at PHF attm and will gradually drift south
through the night before tapering off as DZ/FZDZ in the
morning. Primarily snow at RIC/SBY, PL/FZRA at PHF, RA (possibly
mixing with PL at times) at ORF, and RA at ECG. VSBY in snow
may be reduced to 1 SM or less for a short time with heavier
bands. Otherwise, generally 2-3 SM in precip. FZDZ or DZ lingers
Fri. Another storm system affects the region late Fri night
into Sat bringing the potential for freezing rain and/or sleet
to RIC and SBY. Another low pressure system approaches from the
SW Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 405 PM EST Thursday...

Late this aftn, one area of low pressure was over the SE U.S.
and moving ESE. Winds were generally NNE 10-20 kt over the
waters, with waves 2-3 ft and seas 4-5 ft.

A series of low pressure systems to our south will move track
ENE, as cold high pressure continues to ridge in from the
north, resulting in strong NNE winds this evening into Sun
night. Sustained winds increase to 15-20 kt in the Bay, lower
James River, and Currituck Sound, with 15-25 kt for offshore
zones through the period. Have SCA flags now in effect for all
waters except the York and Rappahannock rivers from this
evening into Fri morning. Then, have extended the SCAs through
Sat aftn for all waters except the York and Rappahannock rivers,
and the nrn two Ches Bay zns. Waves will increase to 3-4 ft in
the Bay tonight, with seas building to 4-7 ft. Last low pressure
moves out to sea Sun, which will result in winds turning to the
N/NW and falling below SCA thresholds, except on the coast.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for MDZ022>025.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ012.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for VAZ048-
     060>062-064>069-075>090-099-100-509>523.
     Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Saturday evening
     for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-509>522.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for VAZ092-093.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Saturday for ANZ632>634-
     638-650-652-654-656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ630-
     631.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ERI/JDM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...RHR/TMG
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 11, 3:48 PM EST, 11 hours 21 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
348 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021

VAZ048-061-062-064-069-075-076-509>512-515-517-519-521-522-122200-
Fluvanna-Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Powhatan-Westmoreland-
Richmond-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-
Eastern Hanover-Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-
Western King William-Western King and Queen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-
348 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east
central Virginia and north central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ060-067-068-080>083-513-514-516-518-520-122200-
Prince Edward-Nottoway-Amelia-Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-
New Kent-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Eastern Henrico-
Eastern King William-Eastern King and Queen-
348 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, east
central Virginia and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ065-066-079-122200-
Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Brunswick-
348 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ012-VAZ092-093-122200-
Northampton-Southampton-Isle of Wight-
348 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ078-084>086-090-523-122200-
Lancaster-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-James City-York-
348 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ087>089-122200-
Greensville-Sussex-Surry-
348 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ077-122200-
Northumberland-
348 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ013>017-030>032-102-VAZ095>098-524-525-122200-
Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-Bertie-Chowan-
Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-
Virginia Beach-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-
348 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ022>025-122200-
Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches-
348 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MDZ021-122200-
Dorchester-
348 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Any snow accumulation through tonight will be less than one inch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Light freezing rain and sleet will be possible Saturday and Saturday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ099-100-122200-
Accomack-Northampton-
348 PM EST Thu Feb 11 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for eastern Virginia and
southeast Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 11, 10:10 PM EST, 4 hours 59 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1010 PM EST THU FEB 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 PM     SNOW             GLEN ALLEN              37.66N 77.48W
02/11/2021  M1.0 INCH        HENRICO            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&
Local storm report, Feb 11, 10:29 PM EST, 4 hours 40 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1029 PM EST THU FEB 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 PM     SNOW             GLEN ALLEN              37.66N 77.48W
02/11/2021  M1.0 INCH        HENRICO            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&
Local storm report, Feb 11, 10:33 PM EST, 4 hours 36 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1033 PM EST THU FEB 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1014 PM     SNOW             MARION STATION          38.02N 75.73W
02/11/2021  M0.5 INCH        SOMERSET           MD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Wakefield, VA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 12, 3:21 PM ESTIce Storm WarningAKQAmelia, Brunswick, Caroline, Charles City, Chesterfield, Cumberland and 32 more37 hr

Nearby

Coastal Flood Statements in Virginia, 2021Coastal Flood Statements in North Carolina, 2021Every coastal flood statement in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.