Winter Storm Watch 5, NWS Juneau, AK

595 
WWAK47 PAJK 021452
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
552 AM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

AKZ023-021600-
/O.EXP.PAJK.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-210202T1500Z/
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Including the cities of Sitka and Port Alexander
552 AM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 AM AKST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

Snowfall rates have greatly diminished across southern Baranof 
Island.

$$

AKZ018-030200-
/O.CON.PAJK.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210203T1500Z/
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-
Including the city of Skagway
552 AM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 
  35 below zero.

* WHERE...The Klondike Highway at White Pass.

* WHEN...Through 6 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on 
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected. Winds 
  may ease Tuesday night, thus allowing wind chills to warm as 
  well.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

&&

$$

AKZ020>022-025-026-030200-
/O.CON.PAJK.WS.A.0005.210203T1200Z-210204T1200Z/
Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island-
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Including the cities of Gustavus, Hoonah, Elfin Cove, Pelican, 
Juneau, Petersburg, Wrangell, and Kake
552 AM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 
  11 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of the eastern Gulf Coast, the central Inner 
  Channels, and the northern Inner Channels including Juneau, 
  Douglas, Petersburg, Wrangell, Hoonah, Gustavus, Pelican, 
  Elfin Cove, and Tenakee Springs.

* WHEN...From late tonight through late Wednesday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning and evening commute on 
  Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Confidence is highest for Juneau, 
  Douglas, Pelican, and Elfin Cove. A transition to rain is 
  expected in Petersburg and Wrangell Wednesday night and may 
  keep amounts lower.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/juneau

624 
WWAK47 PAJK 030050
WSWAJK

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Juneau AK
350 PM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021


AKZ025-030900-
/O.UPG.PAJK.WS.A.0005.210203T1200Z-210204T1200Z/
/O.NEW.PAJK.WS.W.0008.210203T1200Z-210204T0900Z/
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Including the city of Juneau
350 PM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT
AKST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 
  inches.

* WHERE...Juneau

* WHEN...From 3 AM Wednesday to midnight AKST Wednesday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest snow rates expected late Wednesday
  morning through Wednesday afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ026-030900-
/O.UPG.PAJK.WS.A.0005.210203T1200Z-210204T1200Z/
/O.NEW.PAJK.WW.Y.0011.210203T1200Z-210204T0000Z/
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Including the cities of Petersburg, Wrangell, and Kake
350 PM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 
  inches.

* WHERE...Petersburg and Wrangell

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 3 PM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heavy snow expected before a changeover to
  rain occurs Wednesday afternoon. Highest snowfall rates likely 
  Monday morning through around noon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ020>022-030900-
/O.UPG.PAJK.WS.A.0005.210203T1200Z-210204T1200Z/
/O.NEW.PAJK.WW.Y.0011.210203T1200Z-210204T0600Z/
Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island-
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Including the cities of Gustavus, Hoonah, Elfin Cove, and Pelican
350 PM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 
  inches.

* WHERE...Gustavus, Hoonah, Elfin Cove, Pelican, and Tenakee
  Springs.

* WHEN...From 3 AM to 9 PM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest snow expected Wednesday morning.
  Rain may mix in at times Wednesday afternoon, especially south 
  of Icy Strait.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

For the latest road conditions call 5 1 1 or visit
511.alaska.gov.

&&

$$

AKZ018-030900-
/O.CON.PAJK.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-210203T1500Z/
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-
Including the city of Skagway
350 PM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 
  35 below zero.

* WHERE...The Klondike Highway near White Pass.

* WHEN...Through 6 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on 
  exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected. Winds
  will gradually ease through Wednesday morning allowing wind 
  chills to warm.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling outside. Wear appropriate clothing, a
hat, and gloves.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/juneau

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
301 PM AKST Mon Feb 1 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Monday and Tuesday/ A very complex and dynamic
winter storm continues to unfold across Southeast Alaska this
afternoon as a developing area of low pressure moves SE out of the
northern gulf. Heavy bands of snow continue to move through the
northern half of the Panhandle this evening as seen on satellite
and radar imagery. Lower resolution models struggle with
identifying mesoscale features and their evolution through time;
making forecasting bands of heavy snow very difficult more than a
few hours out. Guidance over the past few days has been indicating
a convergence zone setting up over the Central Panhandle where a
heavy snow band would likely develop; however lower confidence
existed on the exact location it would form. Guidance last night
trended the placement of this band further west and model runs
today continued that trend. What looked to be a Kake snow event
yesterday has turned into a Juneau to Angoon to Little Port Walter
snow storm as the narrow band of heavy snow has set up right over
this area. 12z RAOB soundings and recent MDCRS soundings indicate
a stable boundary layer with NE winds keeping cold air at the
surface with a very unstable layer above 850mb and into the DGZ.
Mid and upper level lapse rates exceeding 8.5C/km and a fully
saturated column indicate efficient snowflake production in the
DGZ, high snow to liquid ratios, and the possibility for
impressive snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour.

This morning, Yakutat received 8-10 inches of snow within a 10
hour period with only 0.25 inches of liquid, yielding snow ratios
upwards of 40:1! With the banded and showery nature of the snow,
snow accumulations will greatly vary from one town to the next.
Under the heavy snow band across the north central Panhandle,
expect an additional 3-6 inches through this evening with snowfall
rates exceeding 1" per hour. The Winter Weather Advisory for
Juneau and Angoon has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning as
total snow accumulations through tonight will be upwards of 4 to
9+ inches. Lower, sub advisory snow amounts expected around
Haines, Gustavus, Pelican, and across the southern half of the
Panhandle.

As the area of low pressure moves SE along the coast, expect
precipitation to pivot and sag southward along the Outer Coast.
Guidance has also trended a tad further west with the position of
the low, keeping the heaviest snow slightly offshore of POW
Island. Kept slight chance to chance wording for POW Island as a
few snow showers will still be possible through Tuesday morning.

A northerly outflow event begins as this system departs tonight
and into Tuesday. Storm force northerlies develop in Lynn Canal
with small crafts in the Central Inner Channels on Tuesday. Expect
gusty winds to 50 mph in Skagway during this time frame as well.
Mountain Wave guidance indicates marginal conditions for Taku Wind
development late tonight through Tuesday morning. Currently do
not expect a full Taku to develop; however with a strong northerly
gradient, gusts to 40-50 mph are still possible in Downtown
Juneau and Douglas. Along the Northeast Gulf coast, expect gale
force winds blowing out of interior passes.

Confidence is only around average for the short term as the main
challenge will continue to be pin pointing exactly where smaller
snow bands set up Monday evening.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday night/...Extended forecast
period begins with a broad ridge to the south. Northwesterly flow
will be in place behind a low that has departed to the southeast
and will promptly be replaced by another low and associated
frontal system. A very tight pressure gradient through the
northern inner channels will be slackening at the beginning of the
forecast period as well. Overall, the region should be cold enough
for the predominant precip type at the onset for this Wednesday
system to be snow, however, flow will switch around to the south
and should see a transition to rain early for most coastal areas
and the southern inner channels. Through the inner channels, early
indications are that this warm push should be able to transition
precip over to liquid as far north as Hoonah before the end of the
day. Precip associated with this system should linger through
Thursday for many areas and by the end of day two, may see the
change over to rain reach Gustavus and Juneau. Snowfall totals
from this system look to be mostly unimpressive for southeast with
the exception being the interior location of Hyder which remains
cold enough for snow and gets the added benefit of the highest
precip totals being in the southern panhandle.

Any break that we get from precip should be short lived as the
pattern remains active with yet another front poised to impact the
region from the southwest Friday into Saturday. Noticeably warmer
air can be expected with this front. How far this can actually
drive the rain/snow line north is still up for a great amount of
scrutiny, but what is becoming increasingly evident is that Haines
and Skagway do not look likely to see much of that warm up and
with the amount of moisture that could be accompanying this front,
a decent snow event may be in the works.

For the duration of the forecast, a sizable break in
precipitation does not appear to be in the cards as the Fri/Sat
front is projected to trough out over the region before being
absorbed into yet another frontal system late in the period. By
this point, enough "warmer" air may have crept into the region,
and with persistent cloud cover, diurnals may not be in play which
could lead to less likelihood for snow for many areas, or the
alternative of temperatures fluctuating right around the freezing
mark. Still have plenty of time for future analysis regarding such
things, but for now, optimistically wishing for the warm up.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM AKST this evening for AKZ024-
     025.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through Tuesday morning
     for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ018-019.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through Tuesday afternoon
     for AKZ019.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ021.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon for
     AKZ018.
     Wind Chill Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 6 AM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ018.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011-013.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
     Storm Warning for PKZ012-013.
     Gale Warning for PKZ021-022-031-032-043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-033-034-041-042-052-053.

&&

CM/JDR

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