Small Craft Advisory 67, NWS Juneau, AK

800 
FZAK51 PAJK 021307
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
407 AM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-030345-
407 AM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low in the eastern Gulf tracks SE to lie near Haida Gwaii by
Tue morning. High pressure remains in the Yukon tonight  causing
outflow winds to persist into Tue evening. A new low develops in
the Central Gulf Wednesday.  

$$

PKZ011-030345-
Glacier Bay-
407 AM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 
5 ft subsiding to 3 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 3 ft
in the evening then 2 ft or less. Freezing spray in the evening. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt becoming SE. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-030345-
Northern Lynn Canal-
407 AM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...N wind 50 kt decreasing to 35 kt. Gusts to 60 kt. Seas 
10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Gusts to
50 kt in the evening. Seas 7 ft subsiding to 4 ft late. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Freezing spray. 
.THU...N gale to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...NW gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-030345-
Southern Lynn Canal-
407 AM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N wind 50 kt decreasing to 35 kt. Gusts to 65 kt. Seas 
10 ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas 7 ft 
subsiding to 4 ft late. Freezing spray in the evening. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt becoming S 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-030345-
Icy Strait-
407 AM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt except 30 kt near Rocky Island. Seas 2 ft or
less except 7 ft near Rocky Island.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt except 25 kt near Rocky Island. Seas 2 ft
or less except 5 ft near Rocky Island.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow.
.THU...E wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-030345-
Cross Sound-
407 AM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow late. 
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow.
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming E. Seas 6 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt becoming SW. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-030345-
Stephens Passage-
407 AM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Gusts to 40 kt
in the evening. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow
with rain. 
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-030345-
Northern Chatham Strait-
407 AM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
7 ft. Freezing spray in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt late. Seas 5 ft
subsiding to 3 ft. Freezing spray in the evening. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Gusts to
35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft. Snow in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain
and snow. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-030345-
Southern Chatham Strait-
407 AM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain showers early in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean entrances. Snow in the morning, then
rain and snow in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-030345-
Frederick Sound-
407 AM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
3 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Snow with rain in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-030345-
Sumner Strait-
407 AM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt decreasing to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft subsiding to 
3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow. Rain
in the afternoon. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.THU...E wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt becoming W. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-030345-
Clarence Strait-
407 AM AKST Tue Feb 2 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt becoming NW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft or less building to 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt becoming W. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
301 PM AKST Mon Feb 1 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Monday and Tuesday/ A very complex and dynamic
winter storm continues to unfold across Southeast Alaska this
afternoon as a developing area of low pressure moves SE out of the
northern gulf. Heavy bands of snow continue to move through the
northern half of the Panhandle this evening as seen on satellite
and radar imagery. Lower resolution models struggle with
identifying mesoscale features and their evolution through time;
making forecasting bands of heavy snow very difficult more than a
few hours out. Guidance over the past few days has been indicating
a convergence zone setting up over the Central Panhandle where a
heavy snow band would likely develop; however lower confidence
existed on the exact location it would form. Guidance last night
trended the placement of this band further west and model runs
today continued that trend. What looked to be a Kake snow event
yesterday has turned into a Juneau to Angoon to Little Port Walter
snow storm as the narrow band of heavy snow has set up right over
this area. 12z RAOB soundings and recent MDCRS soundings indicate
a stable boundary layer with NE winds keeping cold air at the
surface with a very unstable layer above 850mb and into the DGZ.
Mid and upper level lapse rates exceeding 8.5C/km and a fully
saturated column indicate efficient snowflake production in the
DGZ, high snow to liquid ratios, and the possibility for
impressive snowfall rates of 1-2" per hour.

This morning, Yakutat received 8-10 inches of snow within a 10
hour period with only 0.25 inches of liquid, yielding snow ratios
upwards of 40:1! With the banded and showery nature of the snow,
snow accumulations will greatly vary from one town to the next.
Under the heavy snow band across the north central Panhandle,
expect an additional 3-6 inches through this evening with snowfall
rates exceeding 1" per hour. The Winter Weather Advisory for
Juneau and Angoon has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning as
total snow accumulations through tonight will be upwards of 4 to
9+ inches. Lower, sub advisory snow amounts expected around
Haines, Gustavus, Pelican, and across the southern half of the
Panhandle.

As the area of low pressure moves SE along the coast, expect
precipitation to pivot and sag southward along the Outer Coast.
Guidance has also trended a tad further west with the position of
the low, keeping the heaviest snow slightly offshore of POW
Island. Kept slight chance to chance wording for POW Island as a
few snow showers will still be possible through Tuesday morning.

A northerly outflow event begins as this system departs tonight
and into Tuesday. Storm force northerlies develop in Lynn Canal
with small crafts in the Central Inner Channels on Tuesday. Expect
gusty winds to 50 mph in Skagway during this time frame as well.
Mountain Wave guidance indicates marginal conditions for Taku Wind
development late tonight through Tuesday morning. Currently do
not expect a full Taku to develop; however with a strong northerly
gradient, gusts to 40-50 mph are still possible in Downtown
Juneau and Douglas. Along the Northeast Gulf coast, expect gale
force winds blowing out of interior passes.

Confidence is only around average for the short term as the main
challenge will continue to be pin pointing exactly where smaller
snow bands set up Monday evening.

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday night/...Extended forecast
period begins with a broad ridge to the south. Northwesterly flow
will be in place behind a low that has departed to the southeast
and will promptly be replaced by another low and associated
frontal system. A very tight pressure gradient through the
northern inner channels will be slackening at the beginning of the
forecast period as well. Overall, the region should be cold enough
for the predominant precip type at the onset for this Wednesday
system to be snow, however, flow will switch around to the south
and should see a transition to rain early for most coastal areas
and the southern inner channels. Through the inner channels, early
indications are that this warm push should be able to transition
precip over to liquid as far north as Hoonah before the end of the
day. Precip associated with this system should linger through
Thursday for many areas and by the end of day two, may see the
change over to rain reach Gustavus and Juneau. Snowfall totals
from this system look to be mostly unimpressive for southeast with
the exception being the interior location of Hyder which remains
cold enough for snow and gets the added benefit of the highest
precip totals being in the southern panhandle.

Any break that we get from precip should be short lived as the
pattern remains active with yet another front poised to impact the
region from the southwest Friday into Saturday. Noticeably warmer
air can be expected with this front. How far this can actually
drive the rain/snow line north is still up for a great amount of
scrutiny, but what is becoming increasingly evident is that Haines
and Skagway do not look likely to see much of that warm up and
with the amount of moisture that could be accompanying this front,
a decent snow event may be in the works.

For the duration of the forecast, a sizable break in
precipitation does not appear to be in the cards as the Fri/Sat
front is projected to trough out over the region before being
absorbed into yet another frontal system late in the period. By
this point, enough "warmer" air may have crept into the region,
and with persistent cloud cover, diurnals may not be in play which
could lead to less likelihood for snow for many areas, or the
alternative of temperatures fluctuating right around the freezing
mark. Still have plenty of time for future analysis regarding such
things, but for now, optimistically wishing for the warm up.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM AKST this evening for AKZ024-
     025.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through Tuesday morning
     for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ018-019.
     Strong Wind from midnight AKST tonight through Tuesday afternoon
     for AKZ019.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ021.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon for
     AKZ018.
     Wind Chill Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 6 AM AKST Wednesday for
     AKZ018.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011-013.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
     Storm Warning for PKZ012-013.
     Gale Warning for PKZ021-022-031-032-043-051.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-033-034-041-042-052-053.

&&

CM/JDR

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1105 AM AKST MON FEB 1 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY SNOW       YAKUTAT                 59.55N 139.73W
02/01/2021  M9.0 INCH        YAKUTAT            AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOW VERY FLUFFY WITH LOW WATER CONTENT.
            SNOW HAS CURRENTLY STOPPED. IT HAS BEEN
            BLOWING AROUND A LITTLE AS WELL.

0900 AM     HEAVY SNOW       6 SE YAKUTAT            59.49N 139.61W
02/01/2021  M8.0 INCH        YAKUTAT            AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            8 INCHES OVERNIGHT AT WSO YAKUTAT AT THE
            YAKUTAT AIRPORT. CURRENTLY STOPPED SNOWING.

&&