Winter Storm Watch 10, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
144 PM AKDT Wed Mar 31 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday night/...Wind blown and dripping
today will give way to just plain dripping tomorrow.

A vigorous front continues to push through the far southern
Panhandle as of this afternoon, producing strong winds and
primarily rain. There have been reports of snow, particularly over
the far northern inner channels. As of this afternoon, it is
still snowing at the Haines airport, but temperatures there do not
support any meaningful accumulations. Falling temperatures
tonight will result in a change back to snow and multiple
locations may see up to 2 inches overnight. Residual shower
activity tomorrow will look a lot like today, but with less wind
and lower QPF values. As the parent low to the current front
tracks southeast along the outer coast, things will begin to dry
out from north to south late Thursday night. However, secondary
development of a surface trough on the parent low will produce
more categorical precipitation over the southern third of the
Panhandle as we enter the beginning of the extended range forecast
period. Looking closely at 1000-500mb thickness patterns, one
cannot really call this a full blown front, but mid level
vorticity as well as expected QPF values will make it look like
one.

Diminishing small craft conditions on the inside and over the
coastal marine zones will not return tomorrow, but small craft
advisories for the outer coast remain in place due to high seas.

.LONG TERM.../Fri through Wed as of 10 pm Tue/ Long term forecast
looks to mostly continue the active weather pattern over the
region. A cold upper trough will be in place overhead for at least
the first couple days of the forecast period. This should maintain
the ongoing trend with precipitation where we cool during the
night to see snow in many locations with a transition over to
rain with day time warming. There is some early indications that
there could be a period of drying sometime Saturday and Sunday,
mainly for the northern panhandle, before another low pressure
system moves in on the region. A front associated with this system
appears to stall out over the region, keeping up chances for
showers to continue through the duration of the forecast. Thus
far, snowfall totals look limited as our days continue to get
longer, but high temperatures in the north look to continue to
struggle to reach 40 during the long term period. At the moment,
winds do not appear to be an issue during the forecast period.
There is a fair amount of uncertainty with this forecast as there
is a quite a bit of disagreement between various model solutions.
What does look certain though is the continued trend of cooler
than normal temperatures.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 4 PM AKDT this afternoon for AKZ025-027.
     Strong Wind until 7 PM AKDT this evening for AKZ028.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-031-034-035-041>043-
     051>053.

&&

FCF/BFL/JDR

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