Small Craft Advisory 200, NWS Juneau, AK

289 
FZAK51 PAJK 021221
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
421 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-030345-
421 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A surface low lingers off Prince of Wales Island on  Friday
before moving south and dissipating. A region of high pressure
moves east from the north Pacific Ocean. 

$$

PKZ011-030345-
Glacier Bay-
421 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N wind increasing to 25 kt decreasing to 15 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-030345-
Northern Lynn Canal-
421 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NW wind increasing to 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or
less.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-030345-
Southern Lynn Canal-
421 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NW wind increasing to 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or
less.  
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less.  

$$

PKZ021-030345-
Icy Strait-
421 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-030345-
Cross Sound-
421 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow and rain. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-030345-
Stephens Passage-
421 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...Light winds becoming N 10 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-030345-
Northern Chatham Strait-
421 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-030345-
Southern Chatham Strait-
421 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 8 
ft. Rain and snow showers in the morning.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 7 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-030345-
Frederick Sound-
421 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 15 kt in the afternoon. Out of
interior passes, gusts to 40 kt in the morning. Seas 4 ft. Snow and
rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-030345-
Sumner Strait-
421 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt becoming SE 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts
to 40 kt early in the morning. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain and snow showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming light. Seas 2 ft
or less, except 6 ft near ocean entrances. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less, except 4 ft near ocean entrances. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-030345-
Clarence Strait-
421 AM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...S wind to 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming light. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

911 
FZAK51 PAJK 022354
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
354 PM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-031700-
354 PM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A surface low off Prince of Wales Island dissipates and moves
south Friday evening. A region of weak high pressure moves over 
the panhandle on Saturday. Onshore flow develops Saturday night 
and continues through Sunday. 

$$

PKZ011-031700-
Glacier Bay-
354 PM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming S 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers
late. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-031700-
Northern Lynn Canal-
354 PM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft early in 
the evening then 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft
or less building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers late. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain with snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-031700-
Southern Lynn Canal-
354 PM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft early in 
the evening subsiding to 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt becoming S 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
2 ft or less building to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers late.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-031700-
Icy Strait-
354 PM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers late.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-031700-
Cross Sound-
354 PM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt becoming W. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt becoming SW in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-031700-
Stephens Passage-
354 PM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain showers early in
the evening. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ032-031700-
Northern Chatham Strait-
354 PM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt early diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft 
early in the evening then 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 10 kt becoming S late. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-031700-
Southern Chatham Strait-
354 PM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 7 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain showers early in the evening. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming N 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less, except 5 ft near ocean entrances. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-031700-
Frederick Sound-
354 PM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain and snow showers
in the evening. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-031700-
Sumner Strait-
354 PM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt becoming W late. Seas 2 ft or less,
except 6 ft near ocean entrances. Rain and snow showers in the 
evening. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming NW 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas
2 ft or less, except 4 ft near ocean entrances. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 5 ft
near ocean entrances. 
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-031700-
Clarence Strait-
354 PM AKDT Fri Apr 2 2021

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt early diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
Rain showers in the evening, then rain showers and snow showers 
late. 
.SAT...Light winds. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. 
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...S wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
322 PM AKDT Thu Apr 1 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Friday night/ A deep upper low over the
gulf has spread a sharply unstable and cool air mass across the
southern and central Panhandle today. This has created great
uncertainty over snow amounts, as reports from Sitka to Ketchikan
have varied from little to no snow accumulation to up to 2 inches
in a single hour's time with pictures to prove. A special weather
statement was posted to cover widely variable accumulations and
quickly accumulating showers at times. Given a winter storm watch
in effect earlier for the southern Inner Channels and the Coffman
Cove/Wrangell/Petersburg area, we elected to upgrade to winter
weather advisories in the early afternoon to cover a wave
interlocking with the low tracking southeast. After studying
cooling in northerly flow at the tip of southern Baranof, we
decided to post a winter storm warning for Port Alexander/Little
Port Walter from 7 PM tonight to 10 AM Friday for 6 to 8 inches of
snowfall. Admittedly, April snow is marginal but not impossible
in April, and often makes forecasters look foolish, any any day in
April, much less the first day.

To further discuss the event in the southern Inner Channels, we
gave a lot of attention to marginally cool temperatures in
southerly flow tonight into Friday. With increasing southerly flow
and a small craft advisory southerly in Clarence Strait we decided
to warm them ever so slightly starting at 12Z and slowly
transition their p-type to rain. Also we lowered snow ratios
through the night to reflect a much wetter snow than today's
fluffy powder. Ensembles also drove home a much more debatable
message. MOS numbers were low with just a couple of inches of
accumulation. So we elected to go with 1 to 4 inches at sea level
with higher amounts in higher elevations. Farther north, we also
raised QPF for Petersburg/Wrangell to account for MOS numbers and
ensemble probabilities significantly but not completely more
bullish on snow. Thus, we upgraded zone 26 to advisory as well
with even 3 inches for Kake. Temperatures will not be as much of
an issue here, so model snow ratios were kept above 10 to 1.

Our lower confidence warning for southern Baranof Island is based
mainly on cooling temperatures near freezing and large model
agreement of strong QPF signatures given upslope flow from the
east and southeast. Models may be holding off on presenting
surface flow as more northerly, but given cold air in place, we
may have to change the wind direction to northerly here from a
more easterly, but still blocked flow.

Farther north, instability is lighter and rotating waves become
weaker and therefore snow showers become more scattered. We feel
that temperatures will cool relatively quickly tonight, especially
in Yakutat, where some patchy fog will develop late. Precipitation
will be hard pressed to reach the capital city Friday morning
before the low pulls away.

.LONG TERM.../Sat through Thur as of 10 pm Wed/ Long term forecast
still looks to feature cool and unsettled weather for the most
part. However, we begin on Saturday with reduced chances for
precipitation across the panhandle, but particularly in the north.
Some sunshine also looks possible for Saturday, but a deep trough
with some pretty cold temperatures aloft over the top of the
region should inhibit most of the potential warming from any
breaks in the clouds. The break will be short lived as cloud
cover and chances for precipitation begin to increase Saturday
night into Sunday as a low pressure system begins to move in from
the west. Onshore flow will keep up the chances for showers before
yet another low pressure system moves in on the region and then
looks to meander off the coast for much of the duration of the
forecast period. Temperatures at night should cool enough for most
locations to see snow or at the very least a mix, but then should
warm enough during the day to transition over to rain near sea
level. At the moment, snowfall totals don't look overly impressive
any given night as our days continue to get longer, but those
details could change as they become refined for future iterations
of the forecast. Winds continue to appear to be mostly a non-issue
in the long term. Forecast still comes with a fair amount of
uncertainty however it does look like a solid bet that it will be
wet and cooler than normal conditions will persist.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ026>028.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM AKDT Friday
     for AKZ023.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011>013-022-032-033-035-036-041>043-
     051-052.

&&

JWA/JDR

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1051 AM AKDT Thu Apr 1 2021

AKZ017>029-020100-
Cape Fairweather to Cape Suckling Coastal Area-
Taiya Inlet and Klondike Highway-Haines Borough and Lynn Canal-
Glacier Bay-Eastern Chichagof Island-
Salisbury Sound to Cape Fairweather Coastal Area-
Cape Decision to Salisbury Sound Coastal Area-
Eastern Baranof Island and Southern Admiralty Island-
Juneau Borough and Northern Admiralty Island-
Inner Channels from Kupreanof Island to Etolin Island-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision Coastal Area-
Southern Inner Channels-Misty Fjords-
Including the cities of Yakutat, Skagway, Haines, Gustavus,
Hoonah, Elfin Cove, Pelican, Sitka, Port Alexander, Angoon,
Juneau, Petersburg, Wrangell, Kake, Craig, Klawock, Ketchikan,
Metlakatla, and Hyder
1051 AM AKDT Thu Apr 1 2021

...SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RATES AND LOW
VISIBILITY...

Snow showers will continue to move through the Panhandle through
the rest of the day. Locally heavy snowfall rates of 1-2 inches
per hour along with low visibility are possible under the
strongest showers. Snowfall accumulations may widely vary over
short distances due to the showery nature of the precipitation.