Small Craft Advisory 99, NWS Juneau, AK

858 
FZAK51 PAJK 172238 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
138 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-180400-
138 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A storm force low will begin to move into the eastern Gulf from
the south on Wednesday. That low looks to come ashore  around
the northeastern Gulf coast on Friday.  

$$

PKZ011-180400-
Glacier Bay-
138 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

.TODAY...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow in 
the morning. Snow and rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain in the evening. 
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ012-180400-
Northern Lynn Canal-
138 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.REST OF TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming N late. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ013-180400-
Southern Lynn Canal-
138 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or
less. Snow. Rain in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N late. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
4 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ021-180400-
Icy Strait-
138 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 4 ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the 
afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5
ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ022-180400-
Cross Sound-
138 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Snow in the morning. Rain and snow
in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt becoming SW. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-180400-
Stephens Passage-
138 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N late. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the 
afternoon.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ032-180400-
Northern Chatham Strait-
138 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N late. Seas 3 ft. 
.THU...N wind 25 kt increasing to gale to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 ft building to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3
ft.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ033-180400-
Southern Chatham Strait-
138 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances, 
seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming N 25 kt late. Seas 3 ft building
to 5 ft late. Near ocean entrances, seas 6 ft building to 10 ft 
late.
.THU...N gale to 40 kt. Seas 8 ft, except 19 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except
20 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ034-180400-
Frederick Sound-
138 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.THU...E gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain in the 
afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ035-180400-
Sumner Strait-
138 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt late. Gusts to 45 kt
late. Seas 3 ft building to 6 ft late. 
.THU...E gale to 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 12 ft 
near ocean entrances. Rain in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 12 
ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ036-180400-
Clarence Strait-
138 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Gusts to 40 kt
late. Seas 4 ft building to 9 ft late. Rain late. 
.THU...SE gale to 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 11 ft, except 13 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 



$$

031 
FZAK51 PAJK 180039
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
339 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-181630-
339 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A storm force low moves into the eastern gulf. The low then moves
onshore South of Cross Sound on Friday. 

$$

PKZ011-181630-
Glacier Bay-
339 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain in the evening.
.THU...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain and snow in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming SE late. Gusts to 35 kt
late. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-181630-
Northern Lynn Canal-
339 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming N 10 kt late. Seas 5 ft in the 
evening then 2 ft or less. Snow and rain in the evening. 
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain with snow in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming SE late. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain with snow. 
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-181630-
Southern Lynn Canal-
339 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N late. Seas 3 ft. Rain early in
the evening. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt in the 
afternoon. Seas 5 ft. Rain in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...N wind 25 kt becoming SE late. Gusts to 40 kt.
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain with snow. 
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-181630-
Icy Strait-
339 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain early in the evening. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-181630-
Cross Sound-
339 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain in 
the evening.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft building to 13 ft in the
afternoon. Rain in the afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-181630-
Stephens Passage-
339 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming NE late. Seas 3 ft. Snow in the
evening. 
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain in the
afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-181630-
Northern Chatham Strait-
339 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming N late. Seas 3 ft. Rain early in
the evening. 
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-181630-
Southern Chatham Strait-
339 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming N 30 kt late. Seas 3 ft
building to 6 ft late. Near ocean entrances, seas 6 ft building
to 11 ft late. Rain late. 
.THU...N wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft, except 20 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft, except
20 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 16 ft
near ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except
14 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-181630-
Frederick Sound-
339 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Out of interior
passes, gusts to 40 kt late. Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft. 
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain in the
afternoon. 
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt, except 40 kt out
of interior passes. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt, except 35 kt out of
interior passes. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-181630-
Sumner Strait-
339 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 35 kt late. Gusts to 50 kt
late. Seas 3 ft building to 7 ft late. 
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 12 ft near
ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft,
except 12 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft, except 9 ft
near ocean entrances. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-181630-
Clarence Strait-
339 PM AKST Wed Feb 17 2021

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft
building to 9 ft late. Rain late. 
.THU...SE wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 11 ft, except 13 ft near ocean entrances. Rain.
.THU NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain.
.SAT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
309 PM AKST Tue Feb 16 2021

.SHORT TERM...While cats can be a terror, it's the kittens that
sport the sharpest claws. And such is the bite of this terribly
weak kitten like front that flirts with sufficient lift that
could deposit a few inches of light snow across much of the
northern and central Panhandle. But the hunch has always been, let
us lower the QPF, maybe lower the snow ratios, but raise POP. But
a fluffier band this morning cautioned us to avoid too much
change. Accumulation has so far measured one inch in Yakutat and
approaching that in parts of Juneau. We did expand POP early on
the in day to account for more efficient lift in the south such as
Wrangell. However, word from Gustavus has confirmed the fear from
just within the confines of possibility-- that weak fronts beget
shallow columns of precipitation that may indeed host a hidden
part of super-cooled water droplets. Reports on the ground first
indicated a light freezing drizzle, but once reports received of a
bona fide changeover to rain, we posted a winter weather advisory
with less than a quarter inch of ice as word leaks that travel has
become impacted. When to end the advisory was not cut and dry as
no index of ours indeed even hinted at such mischief. A front
though lies just offshore, and an approaching wave into Cape
Fairweather land, may just enhance a convergence zone across the
Icy Strait corridor and thus thickening the moisture profile to
allow precipitation to transition more to snow again by this
evening. But confidence is quite low--like scientifically
explaining what a cat would do, except to cause more mischief in
ways one would least expect. Thus winter weather advisory for
Gustavus is out until only 6 PM.

Given cloud cover tonight, we expect temperatures to fall only
modestly. So we warmed temperatures by 3 to 10 degrees in many
areas. We also warmed White Pass in line with Canadians so that we
are confident that any dangerous wind chills remain in the past--
for now. Snow levels do look low across the Panhandle, such that
snow could fall even in the far south overnight. But a slow
warming trend coincident with greater thicknesses spreads
northward and with it a mix or transition to all rain by Wednesday
night for much of the Panhandle. Like many times, confidence in
Upper Lynn Canal is the hardest. We anticipate a southerly turn
with temperatures rising above temperatures. While this makes
sense with a changeover to rain, we left snow with lower
accumulations for now.

We looked at potential advisory amounts for Yakutat, but so far,
think not. We did raise temperatures a little Wednesday, which
could introduce rain earlier, before 2 to 4 inches of snow falls.
Much of this falls due to an associated front into the northern
gulf with the most energy west of the Panhandle. We did raise pops
for the northern Panhandle, but amounts of snow should be low at
this time. Some of this could be transitioning to rain at this
time as gradients go more parallel. But confidence is not good at
the moment, so very little has changed.

On Thursday, a storm force low begins to pivot the northern gulf
front to the west. This should spread rain and snow for the
Panhandle with the potential of very strong winds for Prince of
Wales Island. While we discussed the possibility of gusts to 60
mph, we do not think evidence supports it as of yet. Thus, we hold
back on issuing a watch, if we even need to issue at all. Outflow
is stronger with this system, and thus the northern Panhandle may
experience more of a legitimate break, even if it's a mere 12
hours long.

.LONG TERM.../Thu through Tue as of 10 pm Mon/ Better model
agreement on a storm force low moving into the AK Gulf from the N
Pacific Thursday. Still uncertainty on timing with NAM being an
initial outlier and while GFS/ECMWF were closer on timing, still
had position difference. Canadian was a good compromise on
position and still had the initial storm force winds. As the low
tracks towards the northeast gulf winds will likely diminish.
Coastal locations expecting at least 40 mph gusts, but if the low
does not fill while tracking north could see gusts closer to 50
to maybe 60 mph. Precip initially starting a snow or rain snow
mix, then transitioning to mostly rain for southern areas with
southerly flow and warmer air moving in. Might see higher QPF
values but getting lots of terrain variation in models. Central
and northern areas start to see increase snow accumulation late
Thursday night into early Friday, but once again for central areas
southerly flow and warming temps looks to transition to more
rain. For Friday as the low weakens in the northeast gulf and
after a short period of zonal onshore flow another low is expected
to track into the central gulf from the west bringing more precip
to the region. High temps will be in the low 30s to low 40s with
lows in the upper 20s to low 30s, with southern regions getting
the warmest temps. However 850 mb temps mostly colder than -3C
which should at least keeping mixed precip in the forecast
initially.

Main changes to the start of the long range were continuing the
trend of increasing gulf winds as models began to favor the storm
force low solution. Used Canadian Thursday due to reasons stated
above, then kept with WPC for remainder of the long range.
Forecast confidence for Thursday is improving but still bit below
average.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ020.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-041>043-051-053.

&&

JWA/PRB

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