Small Craft Advisory 94, NWS Juneau, AK

086 
FZAK53 PAJK 140014
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
314 PM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-141815-
Yakutat Bay-
314 PM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft. S swell. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. SW swell. Snow.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
211 PM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

.SHORT TERM...Much of the same for this afternoons forecast
update. High pressure remains over Canada with a cold and dry
airmass dominating the region. Sharp temperature difference
between the polar air and the warmer marine air continues to keep
pressure gradients tight. Therefore, northerly outflow winds have
supported an offshore flow pattern. As the sun peaked above the
horizon this morning, surface heating allowed for sufficient
mixing. Winds have increased through the day causing numerous
small craft and gale warnings through the inner channels. Over
land, High wind warnings are in place for Juneau and Skagway.
Frequent gusts to 60 mph have been observed at Skagway airport and
throughout Downtown Juneau. The forecast challenge is centered
around when outflow winds will diminish. Pressure gradients look
to remain steady through the weekend contributing to the idea that
winds could stay elevated through Sunday. Furthermore, strong
cross barrier flow paired with weak mid-level flow and moderate
inversion hints at the possibility for continued mountain wave
activity near downtown Juneau. Due to the these factors, the High
Wind Warning for Juneau is in effect through 6 pm Sunday. There
will likely be lulls in wind speeds to below criteria but
frequent gusts to 60 mph are expected to occur throughout the
warning period.

For the first time in a few days, temperatures in the mid to
upper 30s have been observed through most of the panhandle,
excluding the far north. Temperatures have been a forecast
challenge as major fluctuations have been observed. Locations
with any wind have seen significant warming while areas with calm
conditions have seen significant cooling. The main forecast focus
as been on the next 24 hours. One area where confidence is higher
is that a warming trend will take place through the weekend and
into next week. Clear skies and dry conditions remain through
Saturday, but by Sunday, a low will move into the Gulf increasing
precipitation chances and cloud cover over the south, Sunday into
Monday. For Saturday similar temperatures, mid to upper 30s, are
expected as mid-level warm air advection increases and winds
remain elevated.

For Skagway and Haines, temperatures in the mid 20s remain locked
in. Winds have also been gusty in these locations as pressure
gradients remain tight through the upper lynn canal. With High
Winds ongoing in Skagway combined with cold temperatures, a Wind
Chill Advisory is in effect until noon Saturday. Coldest wind
chills between 30 to 40 below are expected along the klondike
highway and White Pass.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday...as of 10 PM
Thursday/...Say goodbye to the clear skies that have been giving
us the beautiful views of the Auroras that we have been seeing,
recently, over southeast Alaska. We will be transitioning back to
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies with increased chances of mostly
light wintry precipitation from near the beginning of the long-
term forecast period, onward.

The strong area of high pressure that has been parked over
western Canada for so long and has been bringing the strong
outflow winds to southeast Alaska as of late will, finally, be
weakening and pushing away from the Panhandle. This will allow a
series of storm systems to impact the area from the west through
the end of the long-term forecast period. Currently, light snow
looks to be moving in for portions of the Panhandle just in time
for Monday.

The single piece of good news coming from this is that
the blustery winds look to subside and the windchills look to
improve to not such dangerously low values. Additionally, as the
storm systems approach the area, they look to bring in southerly
flow out ahead of them, which will bring some warm air advection
into southeast Alaska, thereby moderating the temperatures a bit
throughout the Panhandle. Therefore, land areas primarily near
maritime areas in the southern and western Panhandle look like
they may experience some mixed precipitation and/or rain from time
to time through the period. The rest of the Panhandle looks to
keep the primary precipitation forms in the wintry variety.

As for the models, they are in much better agreement than they
were at this time yesterday evening in terms of the timing,
strength, & placement of the meteorological features within the
long-term forecast period. It was decided to go with a GFS/EC/NAM
blend for the beginning, then a GFS/EC blend for the latter 2/3 of
the period, following in the footsteps of WPC. Forecast confidence
is moderate for the period.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning until 6 PM AKST Sunday for AKZ025.
     High Wind Warning until 3 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through Saturday morning
     for AKZ018.
     Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon AKST Saturday
     for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ028.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041-042.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-035-043-051-052.

&&

CC/JLC

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau