Small Craft Advisory 92, NWS Juneau, AK

934 
FZAK51 PAJK 130135 AAA
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
435 PM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-131645-
435 PM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low in the SE gulf tracks slowly E and dissipates through late
Sat. A weather front tracks NE into the central gulf Sat night
and to Dixon Entrance Sun. High pressure persists across  NW
Canada.  

$$

PKZ011-131645-
Glacier Bay-
435 PM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Freezing
spray. 
.SUN...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ012-131645-
Northern Lynn Canal-
435 PM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt diminishing. Gusts to 50 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ013-131645-
Southern Lynn Canal-
435 PM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt.
Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray in the morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Freezing spray late. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ021-131645-
Icy Strait-
435 PM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ022-131645-
Cross Sound-
435 PM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. S swell. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt becoming W. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-131645-
Stephens Passage-
435 PM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt diminishing. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ032-131645-
Northern Chatham Strait-
435 PM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 15 kt diminishing. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 
ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ033-131645-
Southern Chatham Strait-
435 PM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SAT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances, 
seas 9 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. Near ocean
entrances, seas 8 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ034-131645-
Frederick Sound-
435 PM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt diminishing. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2
ft or less. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ035-131645-
Sumner Strait-
435 PM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.WED...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ036-131645-
Clarence Strait-
435 PM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.. 



$$

536 
FZAK51 PAJK 131254
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-140345-
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A low in the SE gulf slowly dissipates through Sat. A front
tracks NE into the central gulf Sat night and to the Dixon 
Entrance Sun. High pressure lingers across NW Canada.  

$$

PKZ011-140345-
Glacier Bay-
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft early in the morning then 2 ft
or less. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ012-140345-
Northern Lynn Canal-
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt becoming N 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 
ft subsiding to 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt in the evening. Seas
4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-140345-
Southern Lynn Canal-
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt becoming 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
subsiding to 4 ft. Freezing spray early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. Freezing
spray late. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior
passes. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ021-140345-
Icy Strait-
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ022-140345-
Cross Sound-
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. SW swell. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. SW swell. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-140345-
Stephens Passage-
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray early in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-140345-
Northern Chatham Strait-
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft in the morning then 2 ft or
less. Freezing spray in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ033-140345-
Southern Chatham Strait-
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

.TODAY...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Near ocean entrances, 
seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Near ocean entrances, seas 8 
ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 7 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 9 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ034-140345-
Frederick Sound-
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

.TODAY...NE wind diminishing to 10 kt. Seas 3 ft early in the 
morning then 2 ft or less. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft late. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ035-140345-
Sumner Strait-
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray
early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt late. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.MON...E wind 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ036-140345-
Clarence Strait-
354 AM AKST Sat Feb 13 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain and snow. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt becoming SW. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.WED...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
211 PM AKST Fri Feb 12 2021

.SHORT TERM...Much of the same for this afternoons forecast
update. High pressure remains over Canada with a cold and dry
airmass dominating the region. Sharp temperature difference
between the polar air and the warmer marine air continues to keep
pressure gradients tight. Therefore, northerly outflow winds have
supported an offshore flow pattern. As the sun peaked above the
horizon this morning, surface heating allowed for sufficient
mixing. Winds have increased through the day causing numerous
small craft and gale warnings through the inner channels. Over
land, High wind warnings are in place for Juneau and Skagway.
Frequent gusts to 60 mph have been observed at Skagway airport and
throughout Downtown Juneau. The forecast challenge is centered
around when outflow winds will diminish. Pressure gradients look
to remain steady through the weekend contributing to the idea that
winds could stay elevated through Sunday. Furthermore, strong
cross barrier flow paired with weak mid-level flow and moderate
inversion hints at the possibility for continued mountain wave
activity near downtown Juneau. Due to the these factors, the High
Wind Warning for Juneau is in effect through 6 pm Sunday. There
will likely be lulls in wind speeds to below criteria but
frequent gusts to 60 mph are expected to occur throughout the
warning period.

For the first time in a few days, temperatures in the mid to
upper 30s have been observed through most of the panhandle,
excluding the far north. Temperatures have been a forecast
challenge as major fluctuations have been observed. Locations
with any wind have seen significant warming while areas with calm
conditions have seen significant cooling. The main forecast focus
as been on the next 24 hours. One area where confidence is higher
is that a warming trend will take place through the weekend and
into next week. Clear skies and dry conditions remain through
Saturday, but by Sunday, a low will move into the Gulf increasing
precipitation chances and cloud cover over the south, Sunday into
Monday. For Saturday similar temperatures, mid to upper 30s, are
expected as mid-level warm air advection increases and winds
remain elevated.

For Skagway and Haines, temperatures in the mid 20s remain locked
in. Winds have also been gusty in these locations as pressure
gradients remain tight through the upper lynn canal. With High
Winds ongoing in Skagway combined with cold temperatures, a Wind
Chill Advisory is in effect until noon Saturday. Coldest wind
chills between 30 to 40 below are expected along the klondike
highway and White Pass.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday...as of 10 PM
Thursday/...Say goodbye to the clear skies that have been giving
us the beautiful views of the Auroras that we have been seeing,
recently, over southeast Alaska. We will be transitioning back to
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies with increased chances of mostly
light wintry precipitation from near the beginning of the long-
term forecast period, onward.

The strong area of high pressure that has been parked over
western Canada for so long and has been bringing the strong
outflow winds to southeast Alaska as of late will, finally, be
weakening and pushing away from the Panhandle. This will allow a
series of storm systems to impact the area from the west through
the end of the long-term forecast period. Currently, light snow
looks to be moving in for portions of the Panhandle just in time
for Monday.

The single piece of good news coming from this is that
the blustery winds look to subside and the windchills look to
improve to not such dangerously low values. Additionally, as the
storm systems approach the area, they look to bring in southerly
flow out ahead of them, which will bring some warm air advection
into southeast Alaska, thereby moderating the temperatures a bit
throughout the Panhandle. Therefore, land areas primarily near
maritime areas in the southern and western Panhandle look like
they may experience some mixed precipitation and/or rain from time
to time through the period. The rest of the Panhandle looks to
keep the primary precipitation forms in the wintry variety.

As for the models, they are in much better agreement than they
were at this time yesterday evening in terms of the timing,
strength, & placement of the meteorological features within the
long-term forecast period. It was decided to go with a GFS/EC/NAM
blend for the beginning, then a GFS/EC blend for the latter 2/3 of
the period, following in the footsteps of WPC. Forecast confidence
is moderate for the period.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning until 6 PM AKST Sunday for AKZ025.
     High Wind Warning until 3 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through Saturday morning
     for AKZ018.
     Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon AKST Saturday
     for AKZ018.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ028.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041-042.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-022-035-043-051-052.

&&

CC/JLC

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1250 PM AKST FRI FEB 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N DOUGLAS             58.29N 134.39W
02/11/2021  M67 MPH          PKZ031             AK   MESONET

            FREQUENT GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH WERE
            MEASURED AT THE JUNEAU AML DOCK BETWEEN
            722PM THURSDAY AND 552AM FRIDAY. PEAK GUST
            DURING THAT PERIOD WAS 67 MPH AT 1142PM.

&&

NF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1253 PM AKST FRI FEB 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1122 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N DOUGLAS             58.29N 134.39W
02/12/2021  M68 MPH          PKZ031             AK   MESONET

            JUNEAU AML DOCK MEASURED A PEAK GUST OF 68
            MPH WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH
            CONTINUING.

&&

NF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
137 PM AKST FRI FEB 12 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 WSW JUNEAU            58.28N 134.51W
02/11/2021                   JUNEAU             AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            EAGLECREST TOP COOP REPORTED DAMAGING WIND
            INCLUDING A PEAK GUST OF 72 MPH. PTARMIGAN
            CHAIRLIFT HAD TWO CHAIRS FLIP OVER THE ROPE
            DUE TO THE WIND OVERNIGHT.

&&

NF