Small Craft Advisory 84, NWS Juneau, AK

649 
FZAK52 PAJK 101301
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
401 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-110715-
401 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Strong high pressure persists over the Yukon. North to northeast 
outflow winds continue with freezing spray and elevated seas. 

$$

PKZ041-110715-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
401 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
7 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas building to 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-110715-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
401 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray early in the
morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.FRI...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-110715-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
401 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E wind increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-110715-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
401 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. S swell. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 6 ft. S 
swell in the evening. Freezing spray. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-110715-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
401 AM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

468 
FZAK52 PAJK 110037
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
337 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-111845-
337 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Strong high pressure persists over the Yukon. North to northeast 
outflow winds continue with freezing spray and elevated seas,
persisting through the weekend. 

$$

PKZ041-111845-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
337 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-111845-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
337 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE gale to 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-111845-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
337 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-111845-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
337 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. S swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. S swell. 
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-111845-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
337 PM AKST Wed Feb 10 2021

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.THU NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. S swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. SE swell. 
.SAT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
308 PM AKST Tue Feb 9 2021

.SHORT TERM...A frigid air mass has parked across our region,
sending some of the coldest air in some parts in several winters.
Downtown Juneau and Douglas has only managed the mid-single
digits. Skagway has failed to make it above zero as best we can
tell. Petersburg and Wrangell have barely eclipsed above ten
degrees. Sitka and Ketchikan have been stuck in the teens all
day. While normal and ho-hum in other parts of Alaska, in a region
dominated by mild onshore flow with consistent adjacent warm pools
through the Inner Channels, it is very impressive. But to place in
perspective, records have not been an issue, although close in
some spots. Sounding climatology, too has been impressive with
temperatures at 850 mb at Annette among the coldest ever seen for
the date in the decades of data, -14 C. The cold has impacted
some. Auke Bay elementary switched to online instruction due to a
frozen pipe issue.

Winds have presented an issue as well with strong wind gusts
reported in Downtown Juneau and Douglas as well as Skagway and the
Klondike Highway. Along with the frigid temperatures, estimated at
the teens below zero we have some serious wind chill issues at
White Pass. Given strong winds and persistent cold, we extend the
wind chill advisory at White Pass through 3 PM Wednesday afternoon
with a potential option later of extending it into Thursday. Will
other locations have wind chills? Certainly, we expect 20 below
around Juneau. Heavy freezing spray looks a solid bet through
Wednesday evening. Satellite confirms freezing spray through
portions of the Inner Channels and in outflow plumes across the
gulf. Near constant northerly gradients should support consistent
gales through Lynn Canal and small crafts in other northern Inner
Channels and Sumner Street.

There could be some shallow training of light snow showers in
localized areas of northeast Chichagof, eastern Baranof,
Kupreanof, and Prince of Wales Island. Webcams confirmed, but
spotter calls have proven there has been little in the way to show
for it. Thus we think these bands will be too light to be
impactful. Few changes were made as the forecasts looks good.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday night/...Outflow winds
subside throughout the the first half of the period and any Taku
winds impacting Juneau and Douglas will subside, as well, as the
high to our northeast in northwestern Canada weakens. It looks
like the high could get as strong as 1064mb according to model
guidance. It looks like southeast Alaska will have continued high
and dry conditions through the weekend as it stays under the high
pressure's dominance. Use extra caution, especially for the first
half of the forecast period due to the cold temperatures the very
low wind chills from what will be left of the outflow winds from
the aforementioned strong high over northwestern Canada. For
mariners, heavy freezing spray will be a possibility as well
because of the strong winds and very cold temperatures. Dress and
make any other preparations accordingly. One positive note is
that under the continued decreased cloudiness, there will be more
opportunities to see the aurora as long as the space weather
conditions are right.

Toward the end of the period, chances of light precipitation may
return as the ridge begins to slowly break down and a storm system
approaches the Panhandle. The models are slowly coming into
agreement for this solution, but the exact location and strength
of the low are still to be determined. This begins to occur around
the Monday into Monday night timeframe. The ECMWF and the GFS
have the low tracking to the south and impacting the southern
Panhandle the most. The Canadian has it tracking toward the
northern/central Panhandle. Shortly thereafter, a ridge looks to
build in from the west for up to about a day and then another
system looks to approach the area right around the Wednesday
timeframe, just beyond our forecast period. Understandably, model
agreement isn't that great on this, yet, as it is so far out in
time, but the agreement is there that there will be something
impacting our area around the end of the period. The location and
strength of the system are still up in the air.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through Wednesday afternoon for AKZ018-025.
     Wind Chill Advisory until 3 PM AKST Wednesday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ031.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ031.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ011.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012-013.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ032.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-031>034-043-051>053.

&&

JWA/JLC

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
140 PM AKST TUE FEB 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     EXTREME COLD     2 WNW MENDENHALL VALLEY 58.39N 134.65W
02/09/2021  E-3 F            JUNEAU             AK   PUBLIC

            AUKE BAY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL CLOSED IN-PERSON
            INSTRUCTION BECAUSE OF FROZEN PIPES.

&&

JWA