Small Craft Advisory 642, NWS Juneau, AK

110 
FZAK53 PAJK 240007
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
307 PM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-241815-
Yakutat Bay-
307 PM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. W swell. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray late. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt becoming light. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

921 
FZAK53 PAJK 241300
CWFYAK

Marine Forecast for Yakutat Bay
National Weather Service Juneau AK
400 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

Coastal Waters Forecast for Yakutat Bay

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ053-250700-
Yakutat Bay-
400 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft building to 7 ft. 
.TUE...Light winds. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
504 PM AKST Wed Dec 22 2021

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Friday / Generally clear skies this
evening with clouds spreading in from the west and then headed
southeast. A low moves into the northern gulf and then will track
southeast along the coast of the panhandle. Light snow will spread
into the Northeast Gulf Coast, and coastal panhandle area tonight
and moves southward. The system will be a quick mover lasting
roughly 12 hours. Expect higher snow ratio's so the light snow
should stack up good, so have continued with the snow advisory
southern coastal area with amounts between 2 and 5 inches. (Sitka
southward)

Behind that system the north and northeast outflow winds increase
for Thursday night into to weekend. Cold air should permeate
through out the panhandle starting Friday, and continue to cool
more. Will be messaging cold weather safety on social media
because of the cold.

Posting a Wind Chill Advisory for the Higher elevations of the
Klondike Highway that will last through Friday. Downtown Juneau
and Douglas should see mountain wave activity over the ridge and
over the channel to Douglas Island as well. Have started with some
gusts to around 40 for them.

.LONG TERM...Bitterly cold temperatures, decreased cloudiness,
and brisk offshore northerly outflow winds look to stick with us
well into the weekend. This is due the tight pressure gradient
between a strong dominant high, which looks to continue to be
poised over the Yukon region of Canada and the relatively lower
pressure down toward the eastern Gulf and continued strong cold
air advection at 850mb. The decreased cloudiness will contribute
to nighttime cooling via allowing a radiational component, as
well.

Some locations throughout the Panhandle may break record overnight
low temperatures over the Holiday Weekend with some locations in
the northern Panhandle dipping down as low as 10 below zero. Be
sure to dress warmly and limit time outdoors if you can to avoid
frostbite. Windy conditions will make it feel quite a bit colder.

Winds will begin to lighten, temperatures will begin to modestly
warm, and wind chills will improve as we approach the beginning
of next week as the aforementioned strong high progressively
weakens while drifting southeastward through British Columbia and
an area of low pressure approaches the Panhandle from the
northwest and slides southeastward down the Outer Coast. This
will erode away at the cold air advection that has been
established over the region for a prolonged period of time. MOS
continues to under-perform for forecasting the cold outbreak, due
to its heavy climatological bias.

Some increased cloudiness and light snow accumulations will be
possible throughout the Panhandle for Sunday into Monday morning,
especially for areas along the Outer Coast as the aforementioned
low approaches us. The low does not look like it will be very
strong, but it looks to be strong enough to bring in up to 50
percent PoPs as it slides southeastward down the outer Coast of
the Panhandle. Total forecast QPF values will be low due to the
quick-moving nature of the low, which should translate into less
than advisory-level snow accumulations.

After the low departs, a ridge looks to build into the area,
bringing decreased cloudiness and dry conditions for up to a
couple of days.

Forecast confidence for the long-term is generally average, due to
generally decent agreement in the location of weather features
throughout the period.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM AKST Thursday for
     AKZ023-027.
     Wind Chill Advisory from midnight Thursday night to 6 PM AKST
     Friday for AKZ018.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
     Gale Warning for PKZ052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-031-033-034-041>043-051.

&&

Bezenek/JLC

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