Gale Warning 315, NWS Juneau, AK

480 
FZAK51 PAJK 241306
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
406 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-250345-
406 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A strong high in the Yukon will persist through Sunday while a
weak trough lingers over the gulf. The resulting Northerly
outflow winds will continue through the weekend.  

$$

PKZ011-250345-
Glacier Bay-
406 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Strongest winds out of northern arms. Seas
6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...Light winds becoming N 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ012-250345-
Northern Lynn Canal-
406 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Chance of freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Chance of freezing spray. 
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SUN...N wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ013-250345-
Southern Lynn Canal-
406 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Chance of freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Chance of freezing spray. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of interior passes. Seas 
5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ021-250345-
Icy Strait-
406 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Chance of freezing spray. 
.SAT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ022-250345-
Cross Sound-
406 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ031-250345-
Stephens Passage-
406 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts 50 kt out of interior passes. Seas 5 
ft. Heavy freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. 
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft. 

$$

PKZ032-250345-
Northern Chatham Strait-
406 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Chance of freezing spray. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ033-250345-
Southern Chatham Strait-
406 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft, except 10 ft near ocean
entrances. Chance of freezing spray in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Chance of freezing spray. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ034-250345-
Frederick Sound-
406 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Higher gusts out of interior passes. Seas 
7 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Higher gusts out of interior passes. 
Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 55 kt out of interior passes.
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ035-250345-
Sumner Strait-
406 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Higher gusts out of interior passes. Seas 
4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean entrances. 
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Higher gusts out of interior passes. 
Seas 4 ft, except 7 ft near ocean entrances. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Higher gusts out of interior passes. Seas 4
ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Gusts to 45 kt out of interior 
passes. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

PKZ036-250345-
Clarence Strait-
406 AM AKST Fri Dec 24 2021

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Strongest winds out of interior passes. 
Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Strongest winds out of interior passes. 
Seas 4 ft. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray in the
morning. 
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
643 AM AKST Thu Dec 23 2021

.SHORT TERM...Low pressure off the coast of Sitka has been weaker
than expected this morning. The low will steadily track south
through the day with clearing behind it. Radar and surface obs
indicate that precip has spread inland over the Icy Strait region
to the Juneau airport but is just starting to fall in Sitka since
the snow is falling into a very dry airmass. Some accumulation
(up to 2 inches) is in the forecast from Gustavus to Tenakee
Springs this morning, but only trace expected further inland.
Models have backed off on amounts for Sitka and eastern Prince of
Wales with the low starting to pull away, but have kept the Winter
Weather Advisory in effect since Port Alexander to Edna Bay still
look to get some decent rates this morning with a quick 2 inches
possible in a short amount of time. Overall, there is lower
forecast confidence in the snow amounts this morning, but what
does fall will be dry/fluffy.

Winds have been under performing with this low as well. Most
models had 40-50kt NWLY winds forecasted this morning in the
vicinity of the central gulf buoy (46085), but have only seen
winds as high as 31kt gusting to 43kt. Generally the ECMWF
initialized the best, namely for surface pressure and 850mb temps
compared to the 12z RAOBs. Notably the ECMWF pressure gradient
between Juneau and Skagway was the weakest, which justifies the
lighter winds seen through Lynn Canal this morning. The gradient
gradually rises through the afternoon as the low moves away to the
south and pressure starts rising in the Yukon, but the ECMWF kept
the gradient slightly weaker, so have eased outflow winds a
touch. Still expecting northerly winds to reach gale force 35kt in
Northern Lynn late tonight into Friday morning

Temperatures were warmed slightly, mainly in the windy/outflow
areas where downslope warming and mixing will occur. Still
expecting temps to fall below zero in a handful of wind sheltered
locations across the north as skies clear Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...Bitterly cold temperatures, decreased cloudiness,
and brisk offshore northerly outflow winds look to stick with us
well into the weekend. This is due the tight pressure gradient
between a strong dominant high, which looks to continue to be
poised over the Yukon region of Canada and the relatively lower
pressure down toward the eastern Gulf and continued strong cold
air advection at 850mb. The decreased cloudiness will contribute
to nighttime cooling via allowing a radiational component, as
well.

Some locations throughout the Panhandle may break record overnight
low temperatures over the Holiday Weekend with some locations in
the northern Panhandle dipping down as low as 10 below zero. Be
sure to dress warmly and limit time outdoors if you can to avoid
frostbite. Windy conditions will make it feel quite a bit colder.

Winds will begin to lighten, temperatures will begin to modestly
warm, and wind chills will improve as we approach the beginning
of next week as the aforementioned strong high progressively
weakens while drifting southeastward through British Columbia and
an area of low pressure approaches the Panhandle from the
northwest and slides southeastward down the Outer Coast. This
will erode away at the cold air advection that has been
established over the region for a prolonged period of time. MOS
continues to under-perform for forecasting the cold outbreak, due
to its heavy climatological bias.

Some increased cloudiness and light snow accumulations will be
possible throughout the Panhandle for Sunday into Monday morning,
especially for areas along the Outer Coast as the aforementioned
low approaches us. The low does not look like it will be very
strong, but it looks to be strong enough to bring in up to 50
percent PoPs as it slides southeastward down the outer Coast of
the Panhandle. Total forecast QPF values will be low due to the
quick-moving nature of the low, which should translate into less
than advisory-level snow accumulations.

After the low departs, a ridge looks to build into the area,
bringing decreased cloudiness and dry conditions for up to a
couple of days.

Forecast confidence for the long-term is generally average, due to
generally decent agreement in the location of weather features
throughout the period.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM AKST this afternoon for
     AKZ023-027.
     Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ019-
     025.
     Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM AKST Friday
     for AKZ018.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ012.
     Gale Warning for PKZ012-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-022-031-032-034-041>043-
     051>053.

&&

Ferrin/JLC

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1158 AM AKST THU DEC 23 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     SNOW             5 W THORNE BAY          55.69N 132.65W
12/23/2021  M3.0 INCH        PRINCE OF WALES-HYDAK   PUBLIC

            TREE FELL ON A POWER LINE DUE TO ACCUMULATED
            SNOW LOAD.

&&

BFL