Small Craft Advisory 618, NWS Juneau, AK

103 
FZAK52 PAJK 130056
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
356 PM AKST Sun Dec 12 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-131900-
356 PM AKST Sun Dec 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A Gale force low in the SE Gulf will slowly slide S of the Gulf
Sun night. Northerly outflow winds will start to diminish Tue. 
Outlook: Another low center slides S of the Gulf and Panhandle 
from W to E on Tue. 

$$

PKZ041-131900-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
356 PM AKST Sun Dec 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell. 
.MON NIGHT...N wind 20 kt becoming E 10 kt late. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt becoming NW. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-131900-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
356 PM AKST Sun Dec 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE late. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-131900-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
356 PM AKST Sun Dec 12 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
11 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...E wind 15 kt becoming W. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-131900-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
356 PM AKST Sun Dec 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray in the morning.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior bays and
passes. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Gusts to 35 kt out of interior
bays and passes. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...E wind 20 kt becoming N. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-131900-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
356 PM AKST Sun Dec 12 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...N wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

922 
FZAK52 PAJK 131234
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
334 AM AKST Mon Dec 13 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-140645-
334 AM AKST Mon Dec 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
Northerly outflow winds will start to diminish Tue. Another low
center slides S of the Gulf and Panhandle from W to E on Tue.  

$$

PKZ041-140645-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
334 AM AKST Mon Dec 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. W swell early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 30 kt becoming NE 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-140645-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
334 AM AKST Mon Dec 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...W wind 15 kt becoming S 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-140645-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
334 AM AKST Mon Dec 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
13 ft subsiding to 9 ft in the afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...S wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-140645-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
334 AM AKST Mon Dec 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft subsiding to 7 ft in the
afternoon. Freezing spray early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt late. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt becoming E. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt becoming NW 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-140645-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
334 AM AKST Mon Dec 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow showers late. 
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...W wind 10 kt becoming E. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 25 kt becoming NE 10 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

776 
FZAK52 PAJK 140034
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
334 PM AKST Mon Dec 13 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-141845-
334 PM AKST Mon Dec 13 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A surface ridge over the western Gulf will shift east as a
developing low over the Alaskan Peninsula tracks southeast
through Tuesday night while remaining south of the Panhandle. 

$$

PKZ041-141845-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
334 PM AKST Mon Dec 13 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt diminishing in the evening, then 
becoming S 15 kt late. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 8 ft late.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
8 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.THU...NW wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt becoming NE. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-141845-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
334 PM AKST Mon Dec 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE 20 kt overnight. Seas 8 ft
subsiding to 6 ft. W swell in the evening.
.TUE...SE wind increasing to 30 kt in the morning. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E gale to 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt late. Seas
7 ft. 
.WED...N wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 10 
ft.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt becoming N 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-141845-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
334 PM AKST Mon Dec 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 25 kt late. Seas 8 ft
subsiding to 6 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt late. Seas
6 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-141845-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
334 PM AKST Mon Dec 13 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt becoming SE and increasing to 30 kt late.
Seas building to 8 ft late. Snow showers and rain showers late. 
.TUE...E wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8
ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 20 kt becoming NE. Seas 9 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-141845-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
334 PM AKST Mon Dec 13 2021

...GALE WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 35 kt late. Seas 6 ft building
to 8 ft late. Rain and snow showers late. 
.TUE...E wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
10 ft. Rain and snow showers in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. 
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt becoming NW. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
307 PM AKST Sat Dec 11 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Saturday night through Sunday night/...An upper
level trough is over the area with a surface low in the gulf
sending waves of snow showers into the panhandle. Some impressive
snowfall totals have been reported across central and southern
zones with near a foot of snow in the Wrangell/Petersburg area and
a little less than that in the Klawock/Craig area. The next wave
rotating around the surface low is expected to impact mainly the
southern panhandle this evening and overnight tonight. A Winter
Storm Warning is being issued with the afternoon package for 4-10
inches of snow for Ketchikan, POW Island, Craig, Klawock, and Port
Alexander. Highest amounts are expected over the higher terrain
on the POW road system. The environment is still expected to be
very unstable with lapse rates of 9C per km. Terrain and lift from
the approaching short wave will will efficiently manufacture
snowfall. Models did bring the low closer to the coast which does
throw in the possibility of snow showers mixing with rain,
especially for Hydaburg and Metlakatla. As we've witnessed over
the past 24 hours, and all throughout the snow season thus far,
snow showers will lend to highly variable snowfall accumulations
depending on where they develop.

Flipping sides to the northern panhandle, northerly outflow will
be on the increase this evening into tomorrow. Currently have
northerly winds increasing to 45kt in Lynn Canal by tomorrow.
Winds will be gusty out of the interior passes with gales and
small crafts over most of our waterways. Strong winds are
anticipated for places like Haines and Skagway, and a mountain
wave event is also possible for Juneau. Some of the coldest
temperatures so far this season will be experienced across the
Northern and Central Panhandle over the next few days. Areas that
get windy (Skagway, Juneau) will likely stay warmer.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Wednesday night/...the mid term
forecast begins with a very cold panhandle. Monday morning
forecasted temperatures are in the single digits to teens for most
of SE AK, a few lows in the 20s are possible in the far southern
region. And going forward, the cold – below normal – temperatures
will continue through much of next week.

A 500mb ridge will pass over the panhandle early in the week.
This should keep clear to mostly clear skies over the area through
Monday night. And this time of year, clear skies can be
associated with below normal temps, upwards of 10 to 20 degrees
below normal! So while Monday’s weather is looking quiet, the
high temperatures around the region look to be in the 20s for the
south, teens to 20s for the central and coastal areas, single
digits to teens for the Haines/Skagway area.

The strong winds from the weekend will gradually and slowly
decrease Monday into Tuesday. That being said, still expecting
inner channel marine wind speeds to be 25 to over 35 kts for Lynn
Canal through Monday night while 15 to 25 kt speeds elsewhere.

Going into Tuesday, the 500mb ridge looks to break down a bit as
a trough and associated surface low track near SE AK. This pattern
would bring clouds back to the area and some potential
precipitation. But with general offshore flow, have kept the
precip potential only in the Yakutat area for now. Put mostly
clear skies, with increasing clouds, over the inner channels.

Wednesday could be tricky. An advancing ridge could push the
forecasted snow near Yakutat into the northern inner channel
areas. So PoPs were allowed to move eastward over the bulk of the
panhandle.

/ Thursday to Friday / Models are trending later with the next
possibly significant front. What was Wednesday, then Thursday, is
now Friday - so lowered and delayed PoPs a bit. Kept the gradual
warming (but still cold) trend as the front approaches.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon AKST Sunday
     for AKZ023-027-028.
     Strong Wind from 9 PM AKST this evening through Sunday afternoon
     for AKZ025.
     Strong Wind from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
     AKZ019.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for
     AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-013-022-041>043-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-031>036-051>053.

&&

BFL/GJS/BFL

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