Small Craft Advisory 598, NWS Juneau, AK

793 
FZAK51 PAJK 021725 AAB
CWFAJK

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska...UPDATED
National Weather Service Juneau AK
825 AM AKST Thu Dec 2 2021

Southeast Alaska Inside Waters from Dixon Entrance to Skagway

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ098-030400-
825 AM AKST Thu Dec 2 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A weakening gale force low just south of Cape Suckling will move
to just offshore of Sitka this evening before weakening. A broad
trough of low pressure remains in the northern gulf through
Friday.  

$$

PKZ011-030400-
Glacier Bay-
825 AM AKST Thu Dec 2 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming NW late. Seas 2 ft or less. Snow
showers. 
.FRI...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...NW wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 10 kt becoming light. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ012-030400-
Northern Lynn Canal-
825 AM AKST Thu Dec 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING AND LATE TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 10 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 5 ft subsiding to 2 ft or less in the afternoon. Snow 
showers. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 30 kt late. Gusts to 45 kt 
late. Seas 2 ft building to 6 ft late. Snow showers in the 
evening. Freezing spray late. 
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Gusts to 45 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing
spray. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.



$$

PKZ013-030400-
Southern Lynn Canal-
825 AM AKST Thu Dec 2 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers. Rain showers. 
.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt increasing to 20 kt late. Seas building to 4
ft late. Snow showers in the evening.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Out of interior passes, gusts to 35 kt in
the morning. Seas 4 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SAT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ021-030400-
Icy Strait-
825 AM AKST Thu Dec 2 2021

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow showers and rain showers 
in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the evening. 
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas 2 ft or less. 



$$

PKZ022-030400-
Cross Sound-
825 AM AKST Thu Dec 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain showers and snow 
showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. Rain showers in
the evening. Snow showers. 
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 
.SAT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft. 
.SUN...E wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt becoming SW. Seas 5 ft. 



$$

PKZ031-030400-
Stephens Passage-
825 AM AKST Thu Dec 2 2021

UPDATED

.REST OF TODAY...S wind 20 kt diminishing in the afternoon. Seas 4 
ft. Rain and snow showers. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. Rain showers in the evening.
Snow showers. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SAT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.MON...NE wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ032-030400-
Northern Chatham Strait-
825 AM AKST Thu Dec 2 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt becoming SE. Seas building to 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ033-030400-
Southern Chatham Strait-
825 AM AKST Thu Dec 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft, except 17 ft near ocean entrances. Snow showers and rain 
showers early in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 15 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less, except 11 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.FRI NIGHT...Light winds. Seas 2 ft or less, except 9 ft near
ocean entrances. 
.SAT...Light winds becoming S 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...E wind increasing to 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt becoming S 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 



$$

PKZ034-030400-
Frederick Sound-
825 AM AKST Thu Dec 2 2021

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft. 
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SAT...NE wind 10 kt becoming S. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...NE wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ035-030400-
Sumner Strait-
825 AM AKST Thu Dec 2 2021

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
5 ft, except 12 ft near ocean entrances. Rain showers and snow 
showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 11 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers and snow showers. 
.FRI...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SAT...S wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.MON...E wind 10 kt. Seas building to 3 ft. 



$$

PKZ036-030400-
Clarence Strait-
825 AM AKST Thu Dec 2 2021

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 12 ft near ocean
entrances. Rain showers and snow showers in the morning. 
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 11 ft near ocean 
entrances. Rain showers and snow showers late. 
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft, except 8 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft, except 6 ft near ocean
entrances. 
.SAT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. 
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt becoming NW. Seas 4 ft. 
.MON...N wind 15 kt becoming SE. Seas 3 ft. 



$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
627 AM AKST Thu Dec 2 2021

.SHORT TERM.../Through Thursday night/...Snow showers continue
rotating in off the Gulf of Alaska and across Southeast early this
morning, with Gustavus and Hyder reporting around an inch
overnight. This is fairly indicative of most locations through the
overnight period. We do expect varied amounts through the rest of
today to be from 2 to 3 inches additional snowfall in showers as
the low pressure system off Cape Suckling this morning moves
southeast and weakens off of Sitka by this evening. We will keep
the Winter Weather Advisories going into the evening hours where
previously posted, however we will need to watch the Angoon area
where they continue reporting around 3/4 mile in moderate
snowfall. An expansion of the Winter Weather Advisory to include
Angoon for a few hours today is possible if we continue to see the
higher snowfall rates despite our thinking that terrain shadowing
would normally keep rates lower. On the flip- side...we still
expect higher rates of snowfall in showers to drop off across the
northern half of the panhandle by late afternoon...keeping the
southeastern sections of the panhandle in the advisory until
Friday morning as the low moves inland and fills. We then see a
downward trend on heavier snow potential over the weekend, albeit
with colder temperatures coming down from the Yukon on the
backside of the current system for Haines, Skagway and potentially
Juneau.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Sunday Night/...The mid-range
forecast includes the weekend which overall, is still looking snow
showery. And these showers will be in two waves; the exiting wave
on Friday and a slow moving wave Saturday into Sunday.

850mb temps are still very cold so snow showers are expected
during this time frame. The bulk of the snow showers look to be in
the southern half of the panhandle Friday, so would expect most
of the snow accumulations to be in the south Friday into Friday
night. 24 hour snow totals totals would be around 1 to 5 inches.
The one exception is Hyder where greater amounts of snow could
fall.

After Friday’s wave moves out to the south, another wave would
move in from the northwest, reaching Yakutat late Friday night.
Snow showers would track southeastward through the panhandle
through Saturday and Saturday night. 24 hour snow accumulations
from this wave would amount to, you guessed it, another 1 to 5
inches. Depending on how early the showers reach Yakutat, they
could get a little more than 5 inches over a 24 hour period.

Sunday continues the snow chances as a potential low passes the
panhandle to the south. Some rain mixing in is possible for the
south as temperatures could warm to the mid to upper 30s. Yet we
could still see some minor snow impacts as far south as Prince of
Wales Island and Ketchikan before any change to rain. Cold air
will have been preserved owing to an approach of a deep,
baroclinic system aiming for Haida Gwaii. But overrunning
precipitation could be a concern. This is an area and time period
to watch.

/Monday through Wednesday/Decent and repeated ensemble support for
more southwesterly flow across the western gulf must migrate
eastward early next week. This under most circumstances would
imply a deeper warm up across most of Southeast Alaska. However,
the fact that the support derives from a triple point developing
on the southern end of a massive front poised to deliver heavy
snow for Alaska's Bering Sea Coast, especially Nome and the Seward
Peninsula; the warmup will not be as pronounced and arrives with
less certainty. As we spotted this trend yesterday, we allowed the
rain-snow line to creep even further north into the Icy
Strait/Capital City region with this update by Tuesday with
stronger southerly flow through the Inner Channels. However, we
should note that precipitation likely arrives first with some
overrunning gusto. Thicknesses in the 1000-850 mb layer will be
sharply below 1280 m during much of this pre-frontal time.
Therefore light to moderate snowfall accumulations for the
northern and central Panhandle are not out of the question before
any significant warmup.

Looking towards midweek (Wednesday beyond), we expect a
relatively quick cool-down. But with a more modified short-
trajectory colder air mass streaming across the northern gulf, we
suspect temperatures could exceed the melting point at times,
even as precipitation should remain mostly snow in showers. The
southerly flow bee-lining latently warmer oceanic air through the
Inner Channels is pesky enough to severely inject realism into any
snow-lover's forecasts. Whatever the case, the relatively colder,
and snowy pattern then persists into next week even if briefly
interrupted by some rain early next week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM AKST Friday for AKZ026-029.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for
     AKZ017-020-022-023-025.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-033-035-041>043-051>053.

&&

Fritsch/JWA

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