Small Craft Advisory 585, NWS Juneau, AK

132 
FZAK52 PAJK 300007
CWFAEG

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southeast Alaska
National Weather Service Juneau AK
307 PM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

Southeast Alaska Coastal Waters from Dixon Entrance to
Cape Suckling out 100 NM

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Seas forecasts represent the average of the highest
one-third of the combined windwave and swell height.

PKZ099-301815-
307 PM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A front and low center will move NE over the SE AK and Panhandle 
on Tuesday. Outlook. Another low will move NE across the gulf to 
near Cape Fairweather Wednesday. 

$$

PKZ041-301815-
Dixon Entrance to Cape Decision-
307 PM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt early in the evening becoming S 20 kt. 
Seas 13 ft. Rain late.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt becoming W 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft building to 21 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas
19 ft. 
.WED...S gale to 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft. 
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft subsiding to 10 ft. 
.SAT...W wind 15 kt becoming S. Seas 8 ft. 

$$

PKZ042-301815-
Cape Decision to Cape Edgecumbe-
307 PM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. 
.TUE...S wind 20 kt becoming SW 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas
12 ft building to 19 ft in the afternoon. SW swell in the
morning. Rain in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...W gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt late. Seas
19 ft. 
.WED...SW gale to 40 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft subsiding to 9 ft. 
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ043-301815-
Cape Edgecumbe to Cape Fairweather-
307 PM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt early in the evening becoming S 30 kt. 
Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft. 
.WED...E gale to 40 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. 
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. 

$$

PKZ051-301815-
Cape Fairweather to Icy Cape-
307 PM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt early in the evening becoming S 35 kt. 
Seas 16 ft. Rain early in the evening. 
.TUE...S wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 15 ft. Rain in the morning. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. Rain and snow. 
.WED NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft. 
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

PKZ052-301815-
Icy Cape to Cape Suckling-
307 PM AKST Mon Nov 29 2021

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming S in the evening, then becoming 
SE 30 kt late. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. 
.WED...S wind 20 kt. Seas 15 ft. SW swell. 
.WED NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft. SW swell. 
.THU...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. 
.FRI...E gale to 35 kt. Seas 10 ft. 
.SAT...E gale to 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. 

$$

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
301 PM AKST Sun Nov 28 2021

.SHORT TERM.../ Through Monday night / The weather for Sunday
into Sunday night is snow showers rolling off the Gulf of Alaska
and into SE AK. Continued winter weather advisory for the
northeast gulf coast and across much of the northern panhandle for
tonight.

A weak ridge of high pressure keeps the southern panhandle on the
dry side this evening, the high moves into British Columbia by
early Monday. An occluded weather front will move east-northeast
across gulf to the panhandle Monday afternoon starting to bring
precipitation into Southwest Panhandle. Snow or a mix switching to
rain for the southern panhandle and then more organized light snow
for the north central panhandle, with the potential to become a
mixed rain/snow for the Icy Strait corridor.

As the front approaches the outside waters bringing gale force
winds Monday afternoon and Monday night as a new wave starts to
move into the Southeastern gulf late Monday night.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Friday as of 4 PM Sunday/ A mean
trough with an associated surface low pressure centers itself
over the Gulf through the long term period. Through the period
multiple lows spin up in the gulf bringing consecutive waves of
precipitation, some more impressive then others. Tuesday, a
strengthening low swings up into the SE gulf bringing with it a
high end gale force front (winds 35-45 kt). This low will lift N
through the day before dissipating over the central panhandle.
This system looks to have decent warm air advection associated
with it, leading to surface temperatures to warm above freezing
across most of the panhandle. Across the south precipitation will
be rain, but across the north precip is expected to start as snow
before changing to rain. Current thinking is that snow
accumulations between 2-4 inches are possible across the far
north with lesser amounts through the north central.

Wednesday turns to more of a shower pattern before yet another
wave enhancement moves through the southern panhandle. This
enhancements looks to bring more rain as temperatures will still
be above freezing. By Wednesday evening, strong cold air
advection moves into the panhandle from the gulf putting SEAK
under a snow shower pattern once again. This time, temperatures
across the entire panhandle could fall below freezing, letting
everyone play in the snow late Wednesday night into Thursday.

Towards the end of the week, confidence drops significantly has
models struggle to place a new low in the gulf. The GFS/CAN have a
drying trend in place for the weekend while the EC brings in a
storm across the NE gulf. One area where agreement is better, is
on cooling 850mb temperatures through the weekend. Today, MOS back
off on such extreme cold temperatures for the weekend so decided
to follow suit and nudge temps back up slightly.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM AKST Monday for AKZ017-020-
     022-023-025.
     Strong Wind until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ018.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ041>043-051-052-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-021-022-033-035-036-053.

&&

Bezenek/CC

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